WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[SconnieCane]

Here comes the dreaded SW dive
https://i.imgur.com/tFdYjXh.gif

What an eye
https://i.imgur.com/8a0uV1Z.gif

Truly dreaded.. Northern Luzon is used to these kinds of monsters.. but the capital, not at all

Interesting that SW dives by intense TCs between 15-20 degrees N manage to be bad news in both the WPAC and Atlantic.

[Ed_2001]

The storm looks like Ivan in 1997.
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/22W_301200sair.jpg

That's one of the most compact Cat 5's I've seen out of the WPAC, even more so than Nepartak. I imagine this is probably what the labor day hurricane of 1935 would have looked like had we had satellite imagery back then.

[ElectricStorm]

Here comes the dreaded SW dive
https://i.imgur.com/tFdYjXh.gif

What an eye
https://i.imgur.com/8a0uV1Z.gif

https://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2014/4typhoons-viirs.jpg
Source

Given the comparable cloud-top temperatures, high background pressures, ERI, and the small inner core, Goni was probably at least as strong as Haiyan at its peak.

I doubt it was Haiyan level but it's certainly a beast for sure

[aspen]

The CDO is starting to cool. More CDG is showing up on Dvorak.



The HWRF run has Goni peak at 894 mbar and 160 kt. By far one of the most aggressive runs post-Mangkhut.

[ElectricStorm]

The CDO is starting to cool. More CDG is showing up on Dvorak.
https://i.imgur.com/XpakaKb.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/R20WDmb.png

The HWRF run has Goni peak at 894 mbar and 160 kt. By far one of the most aggressive runs post-Mangkhut.
https://i.imgur.com/V8FNMPm.png

If there's no EWRC that 894mb solution could play out. Goni has been able to go awhile now without an EWRC so I would be surprised if one happens soon

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/BougzirF/status/1322128499793158145

[ElectricStorm]

22W GONI 201030 1800 15.8N 129.9E WPAC 155 904

[Ed_2001]

Eye temperature has dropped somewhat but still no real signs of much weakening, if anything cloud tops have gotten colder again and it's still trying to consolidate a CDG ring. Getting a little concerned for the philippines. WIshing the best for the folks over there.

[aspen]

EWRC is coming, although the inner eyewall still remains quite defined.

[ElectricStorm]

EWRC is coming, although the inner eyewall still remains quite defined.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp22/amsusr89/2020wp22_amsusr89_202010301630.gif

I think it looked like that last night but it was able to stay intact. We'll see what happens this time

[ElectricStorm]

Big blowups of convection to the N and SW of the main CDO...

[Ed_2001]

The inner eyewall is still extremely potent.

[Cunxi Huang]

Some AQUA.
Btw H8 just recorded Goni a band 8 (vapor) eye temp of something around -13.3 degC at 1817Z. This is the driest eye H8 ever recorded, surpassing both typhoon Meranti and Nepartak, and it is also the possible driest eye any GEO satellite ever recorded in WPAC.

[Kingarabian]

Doesn't look good for the Philippines unfortunately. Hopefully the ERC does a number on it.

[aspen]

Despite the outer eyewall, Goni’s eye remains very warm and well-defined. The new JTWC forecast cone is very close to a Cat 5 landfall in the Philippines, but Goni gets just far enough north for landfall to be delayed, and it strikes as a 3/4.

[Ed_2001]

Cloud tops have cooled further, but the sun is beginning to rise. We would need a new microwave scan to confirm the status of the outer eyewall but the inner one definitely looks to be hanging strong still.

[Iceresistance]

JTWC calls for CAT 4 landfall over the Philippines.

[Kingarabian]

Here comes the dreaded SW dive
https://i.imgur.com/tFdYjXh.gif

What an eye
https://i.imgur.com/8a0uV1Z.gif

https://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2014/4typhoons-viirs.jpg
Source

Given the comparable cloud-top temperatures, high background pressures, ERI, and the small inner core, Goni was probably at least as strong as Haiyan at its peak.

I doubt it was Haiyan level but it's certainly a beast for sure

Yeah I agree. Strictly speaking in Dvorak terms, Haiyan maxed out the Dvorak scale then @ 8.0. ADT hasn't gone above 7.4 for Goni.

[mrbagyo]

The National Capital Region is now under Tropical Cyclone Signal No. 1

[doomhaMwx]

Looking at HWRF, the impending EWRC could take place pretty smoothly.