WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[ElectricStorm]

Oh no, the CDG rings sound very violent in storms.

A full CDG ring is a T8.0 on Dvorak, the highest you can get, basically the perfect storm. Like Haiyan and Patricia

Dorian in 2019 was very close to the T8.0

Actually Dorian is a rarity. Dvorak never even get to T7.0, the minimal Cat 5. Recon obviously told a different story. The most recent one to almost get T8.0 was Halong last year at 7.8 with raw's at 7.9

[Ed_2001]

the CDO has noticably expanded over the past hour and the ring of CDG is no longer as uniform. I think EWRC may be imminent now.

[Highteeld]

Eye temp is beginning to increase

[Highteeld]

AVN maxed

[Iceresistance]

A full CDG ring is a T8.0 on Dvorak, the highest you can get, basically the perfect storm. Like Haiyan and Patricia

Dorian in 2019 was very close to the T8.0

Actually Dorian is a rarity. Dvorak never even get to T7.0, the minimal Cat 5. Recon obviously told a different story. The most recent one to almost get T8.0 was Halong last year at 7.8 with raw's at 7.9

Yes, Halong was likely close to a T8.0 because if it's near-perfect structure.
Dorian was the one I nicknamed 'The Defying Dorian that will never Die!' Recon was the only reason why it was a 185 mph beast, I never thought that Dorian would get THAT powerful.

[aspen]

Goni really doesn't care that it's about to undergo an EWRC. This is the best it's looked in its entire life, and could be anywhere from 160 to 185 kt with a >15C pinhole eye and <-85C convection.

[dexterlabio]

I am curious if we'll get to see a classic EWRC or a rare eyewall meld kind with Goni. It has gone 24 hours with that eyewall, Goni should be somehow on the verge of reconstructing it.

[Ed_2001]

I am curious if we'll get to see a classic EWRC or a rare eyewall meld kind with Goni. It has gone 24 hours with that eyewall, Goni should be somehow on the verge of reconstructing it.

If I recall correctly the latter happened with Meranti '16, didn't it? I remember how stable it was for most of its peak all the way until it entered the luzon strait.

But the longer Goni is able to hold its strength the worse it will be for the Philippines. Even if an EWRC takes place right before landfall, that wouldn't be a good thing necessarily as the RMW would expand.

[dexterlabio]

I am curious if we'll get to see a classic EWRC or a rare eyewall meld kind with Goni. It has gone 24 hours with that eyewall, Goni should be somehow on the verge of reconstructing it.

If I recall correctly the latter happened with Meranti '16, didn't it? I remember how stable it was for most of its peak all the way until it entered the luzon strait.

The most perfect example of that for me would be Haiyan. The EWRC was so unnoticeable one wouldn't be able to tell it happened if not for the pro mets pointing it out.

[Iceresistance]

Goni really doesn't care that it's about to undergo an EWRC. This is the best it's looked in its entire life, and could be anywhere from 160 to 185 kt with a >15C pinhole eye and <-85C convection.
https://i.imgur.com/e7DZSX2.png
https://i.imgur.com/krpJWtl.png

Goni is like 'I'M GOING TO STAY POWERFUL AS LONG AS POSSIBLE! THE EWRC WILL NEVER GET BELOW CAT 5 STRENGTH BEFORE I GET BURNED OUT!'

[ElectricStorm]

Goni really doesn't care that it's about to undergo an EWRC. This is the best it's looked in its entire life, and could be anywhere from 160 to 185 kt with a >15C pinhole eye and <-85C convection.
https://i.imgur.com/e7DZSX2.png
https://i.imgur.com/krpJWtl.png

The fact that we have a storm like this <24 hours from landfall is a big problem for the Philippines...

[aspen]

I am curious if we'll get to see a classic EWRC or a rare eyewall meld kind with Goni. It has gone 24 hours with that eyewall, Goni should be somehow on the verge of reconstructing it.

If I recall correctly the latter happened with Meranti '16, didn't it? I remember how stable it was for most of its peak all the way until it entered the luzon strait.

But the longer Goni is able to hold its strength the worse it will be for the Philippines. Even if an EWRC takes place right before landfall, that wouldn't be a good thing necessarily as the RMW would expand.

The HWRF is predicting an EWRC causing a collapse of the eye by 12z tomorrow, and rapid weakening up to landfall (in the 950-960s instead of the 920-930s). Hopefully that ends up being true.

[Highteeld]

2020OCT30 230000 7.3 913.8 149.0 7.3 7.7 7.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 13.56 -80.40 EYE 10 IR 24.4 15.33 -128.92 ARCHER HIM-8 22.5

[Ed_2001]

Beating a dead horse, but man oh man do I wish there are recon planes flying into Goni or for that matter dozens of other intenese WPAC TC's that we will never know the true strength of.

[ElectricStorm]

2020OCT30 230000 7.3 913.8 149.0 7.3 7.7 7.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 13.56 -80.40 EYE 10 IR 24.4 15.33 -128.92 ARCHER HIM-8 22.5

Raw Ts approaching Halong levels

[Ed_2001]

I am curious if we'll get to see a classic EWRC or a rare eyewall meld kind with Goni. It has gone 24 hours with that eyewall, Goni should be somehow on the verge of reconstructing it.

If I recall correctly the latter happened with Meranti '16, didn't it? I remember how stable it was for most of its peak all the way until it entered the luzon strait.

But the longer Goni is able to hold its strength the worse it will be for the Philippines. Even if an EWRC takes place right before landfall, that wouldn't be a good thing necessarily as the RMW would expand.

The HWRF is predicting an EWRC causing a collapse of the eye by 12z tomorrow, and rapid weakening up to landfall (in the 950-960s instead of the 920-930s). Hopefully that ends up being true.

I just don't see how it could weaken that quickly even with EWRC. But here's hoping. 2020 has been rough for too many but ofc up until this point the WPAC had been quite tame.

[Cunxi Huang]

I feel you man.

Beating a dead horse, but man oh man do I wish there are recon planes flying into Goni or for that matter dozens of other intenese WPAC TC's that we will never know the true strength of.

[euro6208]

Good morning Goni.

[mrbagyo]

It's getting a massive boost from the OHC

[Cunxi Huang]

JMA 00Z T7.5/7.5, notice MET was 6.0 and DT was 7.0 at 18Z. Wondering if JMA would raise Goni to 120kt.