ATL: ETA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON goes pinhole eye on approach to Honduras...930MB.


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[aspen]

HWRF just 66 hrs out...pinhole Cat 2/3.

[Spacecoast]

HMON goes pinhole eye on approach to Honduras...930MB.

[ElectricStorm]

So now both the HMON and HWRF are going pinhole... Ruh-roh

[Nimbus]

18z GFS is making sure South Florida doesn't get left out of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season!!!

YOU SPIN ME RIGHT ROUND BABY RIGHT ROUND... +

https://i.imgur.com/VMaNF5G.gif

The loop is centered around Jackie Gleasons grave.
Thought for a moment there the GFS had hit an algorithmic asymptote off Honduras.
HWRF is a higher resolution model so its less likely to give up and go out for a cigarette.

[aspen]

18z HWRF, 84 hrs out.

[TheStormExpert]

Two words for the 18Z GFS “NOT HAPPENING” lol.

The “Giving Florida Storms” model is at it again.

Yep, same thoughts here! Especially considering it's over a week out. Been here way too many times this season to be fooled once again.

How many times has the GFS cried wolf for Florida this season? I lost count after 12.

[TheStormExpert]

Storm 2k: "S Florida is past due for a storm, it's bound to happen soon!"
*Model shows S. Fl getting hit*
Storm 2k: "Nope! Not gonna happen!
Lol

We're not that gullible!!

[Keldeo1997]

18Z HWRF was faster then 12Z. 18Z is almost a full degree SW at 12Z on Nov 3rd. Would be a big deal for slow moving/stalling strengthening Major.

[Spacecoast]

18Z HWRF was faster then 12Z. 18Z is almost a full degree SW at 12Z on Nov 3rd. Would be a big deal for slow moving/stalling strengthening Major.

HWRF landfalls exactly same place (Laguna de Caratasca, Honduras) with almost exactly same intensity (941Mb) as HMON, only 15 hours earlier.

[Nimbus]

18Z HWRF dropped south inland over Honduras to the border just a little further west, same position at 102 vs 120 hours.

[SFLcane]

[gatorcane]

Let’s hope the HWRF is showing its usual intensity bias. This could get real bad for Honduras and Nicaragua.

[TheStormExpert]

Thankfully Nicaragua and especially Honduras have some pretty mountainous terrain so it should fall apart pretty quickly once it makes landfall. Though the flooding rains and mudslides will hopefully be the only problem.

[cp79]

Let’s hope the HWRF is showing its usual intensity bias. This could get real bad for Honduras and Nicaragua.

https://i.postimg.cc/7ZTmL68z/hwrf-sat-IR-96-L-fh72-120.gif

You can also see the Euro solution there of the storm splitting in two. Looks like Hwrf wants to do it, too.

[TheStormExpert]

So now both the HMON and HWRF are going pinhole... Ruh-roh

Until we have an actual storm I wouldn’t pay any attention to the hurricane models, they tend to be way too bullish in intensity on yet to develop storms.

Besides this place is a ghost town tonight! Either most are sick and tired of this season at this point or they’ve come to realize that 96L has a decent shot at moving directly into CA.

[gatorcane]

This Euro run looks too weak to me. I think we will see the model trend upward intensity and it also may show a bit more of a slowdown before it moves into CA:

[gatorcane]

Latest guidance. ICON at CAT 2:

[ClarCari]

So now both the HMON and HWRF are going pinhole... Ruh-roh

Until we have an actual storm I wouldn’t pay any attention to the hurricane models, they tend to be way too bullish in intensity on yet to develop storms.

Besides this place is a ghost town tonight! Either most are sick and tired of this season at this point or they’ve come to realize that 96L has a decent shot at moving directly into CA.

Okay this is where I have to step in and help you out.

Please do not speak for everybody!

We’re not burnt out. This is still an invest for right now and there is only so much that can be said and many have already said what they can.
I think you’re using quite a bit of confirmation bias ignoring other models runs suggesting otherwise and other users opinions. Many models have heavily suggested a turn to the north as well as into CA and it’s wise to acknowledge ALL model solutions when speaking about others’ opinions.

I am not telling you what you should think this system will do in your opinion, but please, bro to bro..be open minded about all solutions with other users and their opinions.

BTW, HWRF has nailed pretty much every bullish intensity run for every storm. It nailed Laura, Delta, Zeta, and it suggesting a pinhole major in some of the warmest OHC’s in the world is very realistic...CA is in for a tough one one way or another sadly.

[ElectricStorm]

So now both the HMON and HWRF are going pinhole... Ruh-roh

Until we have an actual storm I wouldn’t pay any attention to the hurricane models, they tend to be way too bullish in intensity on yet to develop storms.

Besides this place is a ghost town tonight! Either most are sick and tired of this season at this point or they’ve come to realize that 96L has a decent shot at moving directly into CA.

Or if they're like me, they're focused on the 160kt super typhoon in the WPAC

The HWRF has been pretty good at predicting the structure of storms this year. It predicted Goni's small core well before it even developed