WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#441 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:12 pm

We're definitely going into eyewall replacement right now. Outer eyewall is pretty tight in (which makes sense considering how compact Goni is), so as long as it isn't disrupted by shear, it might run through this one efficiently.

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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#442 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:16 pm

1900hurricane wrote:We're definitely going into eyewall replacement right now. Outer eyewall is pretty tight in (which makes sense considering how compact Goni is), so as long as it isn't disrupted by shear, it might run through this one efficiently.

https://i.imgur.com/t79F7kS.jpg

The JTWC anticipates weakening due to shear and a loss of a poleward outflow channel disrupting the EWRC.

Also, in their 18z discussion, they mentioned that they went above satellite estimates due to them likely underestimating Goni based on its compact nature. That bodes well for a further intensity bump at 0z.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#443 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:17 pm

Raws are up to T#7.8 with a +20.7C eye!
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#444 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:20 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#445 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:22 pm


The eye has been getting smaller
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#446 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:22 pm

Stadium effect?
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#447 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:24 pm


Very Likely, but the eye is really small & compact.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#448 Postby ManilaTC » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:33 pm

Hi guys, we are looking at about what, 36 hours before it hits us here... I'm going to document this with short hour by hour clips, this will be one for the ages.

Its unprecedented, a storm of this magnitude striking a mega-polis...

Kindly keep us in your prayers, regardless of your beliefs.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#449 Postby Ed_2001 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:34 pm

Holding steady
TPPN13 PGTW 310016
A. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI)
B. 30/2340Z
C. 15.28N
D. 128.88E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.5/7.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
ELIAS
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#450 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:35 pm

ManilaTC wrote:Hi guys, we are looking at about what, 36 hours before it hits us here... I'm going to document this with short hour by hour clips, this will be one for the ages.

Its unprecedented, a storm of this magnitude striking a mega-polis...

Kindly keep us in your prayers, regardless of your beliefs.

I'll be prayin for ya. Good luck out there!
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#451 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:35 pm

ManilaTC wrote:Hi guys, we are looking at about what, 36 hours before it hits us here... I'm going to document this with short hour by hour clips, this will be one for the ages.

Its unprecedented, a storm of this magnitude striking a mega-polis...

Kindly keep us in your prayers, regardless of your beliefs.

Do you think a PDS Super Typhoon Warning is possible if Goni refuses to weaken up until landfall?
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#452 Postby ManilaTC » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:37 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
ManilaTC wrote:Hi guys, we are looking at about what, 36 hours before it hits us here... I'm going to document this with short hour by hour clips, this will be one for the ages.

Its unprecedented, a storm of this magnitude striking a mega-polis...

Kindly keep us in your prayers, regardless of your beliefs.

Do you think a PDS Super Typhoon Warning is possible if Goni refuses to weaken up until landfall?


Yeah its possible a TCWS#5 will be raised... if PAGASA gets it over the 220 km/h hump... I think if JMA gets it to 120kt PAGASA will follow...
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#453 Postby rileydoxsee98 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:40 pm

I’ve went back and looked at the satellite images and microwave, water vapor, all that. And wow, it is very impressive. This has maintained a T7.5 for 18 hours now, which is really impressive. And EWRC is beginning but I believe this peaked at atleast 160-165kts. Unfortunately we’ll never know. This could be 175knts+ for all we know. Hopefully JTWC can increase the intensity post analysis. This will undoubtedly end up as the strongest storm globally in 2020.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#454 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:40 pm

ManilaTC wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
ManilaTC wrote:Hi guys, we are looking at about what, 36 hours before it hits us here... I'm going to document this with short hour by hour clips, this will be one for the ages.

Its unprecedented, a storm of this magnitude striking a mega-polis...

Kindly keep us in your prayers, regardless of your beliefs.

Do you think a PDS Super Typhoon Warning is possible if Goni refuses to weaken up until landfall?


Yeah its possible a TCWS#5 will be raised... if PAGASA gets it over the 220 km/h hump... I think if JMA gets it to 120kt PAGASA will follow...

When was the last time they used #5? Mangkhut? Haiyan?
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#455 Postby Ed_2001 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:43 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
ManilaTC wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Do you think a PDS Super Typhoon Warning is possible if Goni refuses to weaken up until landfall?


Yeah its possible a TCWS#5 will be raised... if PAGASA gets it over the 220 km/h hump... I think if JMA gets it to 120kt PAGASA will follow...

When was the last time they used #5? Mangkhut? Haiyan?


Signal #5 was introduced because of Haiyan I believe. Mangkhut only got up to a signal #4, so I believe probably never (yet). Of course hoping the worst won't come to pass this time around.

EDIT: Nevermind, see post below
Last edited by Ed_2001 on Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:47 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#456 Postby ManilaTC » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:45 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
ManilaTC wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Do you think a PDS Super Typhoon Warning is possible if Goni refuses to weaken up until landfall?


Yeah its possible a TCWS#5 will be raised... if PAGASA gets it over the 220 km/h hump... I think if JMA gets it to 120kt PAGASA will follow...

When was the last time they used #5? Mangkhut? Haiyan?


Haiyan was the cause of PAGASA now having a #5...
The last time they used was in 2016's Haima (Lawin) over Cagayan and Isabela in Northern Luzon.

Metro Manila was raised to a #4 during STY Angela in 1995.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#457 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:46 pm

Ed_2001 wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
ManilaTC wrote:
Yeah its possible a TCWS#5 will be raised... if PAGASA gets it over the 220 km/h hump... I think if JMA gets it to 120kt PAGASA will follow...

When was the last time they used #5? Mangkhut? Haiyan?


Signal #5 was introduced because of Haiyan I believe. Mangkhut only got up to a signal #4, so I believe probably never (yet).

Oh wow. I haven't really paid much attention to those signals
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#458 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:46 pm

Final T# of 7.6 with winds of 158 kt!
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#459 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:48 pm

I know it's going into EWRC, but I'd probably go with 160kts at 0z, which I think JTWC will. We're about to find out
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#460 Postby Highteeld » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:49 pm

2020OCT31 001000 7.6 905.0 158.0 7.6 7.7 7.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.61 -80.62 EYE 9 IR 24.4 15.27 -128.73 ARCHER HIM-8 22.6
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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