WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
22W GONI 201031 0000 15.3N 128.8E WPAC 160 895
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
22W GONI 201031 0000 15.3N 128.8E WPAC 160 895
Sub 900mb!
Sub 900mb!
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Iceresistance
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
aspen wrote:Final T# of 7.6 with winds of 158 kt!
That is 180 mph, on the nose for JTWC for Goni to be at 155 knots.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Oh my god...they actually did it. The JTWC actually gave a pinhole eye storm a >155 kt intensity operationally!
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Iceresistance
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Weather Dude wrote:22W GONI 201031 0000 15.3N 128.8E WPAC 160 895
Sub 900mb!
O.M.G.
O_O
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Highest operational since Meranti I believe... Incredible
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Ed_2001
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Getting Wilma vibes looking at satellite imagery with the board(er) CDO and the eye has really shrunk.
Last edited by Ed_2001 on Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The answer my friend, is blowing in the wind...
Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Good job JTWC
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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1900hurricane
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
How do you estimate this storm? It's so small that nothing works right.
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Iceresistance
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
aspen wrote:Oh my god...they actually did it. The JTWC actually gave a pinhole eye storm a >155 kt intensity operationally!
How high is it now?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Iceresistance wrote:aspen wrote:Oh my god...they actually did it. The JTWC actually gave a pinhole eye storm a >155 kt intensity operationally!
How high is it now?
160kts=185mph
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
1900hurricane wrote:How do you estimate this storm? It's so small that nothing works right.
ADT is working surprisingly well. It’s almost at 160 kt, and has been able to record 15-20C eye temps within the last several hours.
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Iceresistance
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Weather Dude wrote:Iceresistance wrote:aspen wrote:Oh my god...they actually did it. The JTWC actually gave a pinhole eye storm a >155 kt intensity operationally!
How high is it now?
160kts=185mph
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Yikes people on social media are already comparing this to Haiyan. 'Yolanda' is trending with #RollyPH
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MarioProtVI
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
This storm is absolutely insane. As soon as I saw it speeding through the TS category and forming an eye I knew this was likely going to get strong quick and boy did it do so.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
JT needs to do alot of revising post season especially during Goni's rapid intensification phrase. Peak should be bump up to at least 170 knots like what they did with Meranti in 2016. Although Goni was likely stronger.
Estimates have truly underestimated Goni because of its compact size and pinhole eye. Perfect circular CMG and at times CDG wrapping around the eye!
What can we do, we have no recon.
Estimates have truly underestimated Goni because of its compact size and pinhole eye. Perfect circular CMG and at times CDG wrapping around the eye!
What can we do, we have no recon.
Last edited by euro6208 on Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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1900hurricane
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
aspen wrote:1900hurricane wrote:How do you estimate this storm? It's so small that nothing works right.
ADT is working surprisingly well. It’s almost at 160 kt, and has been able to record 15-20C eye temps within the last several hours.
Perhaps, but it really didn't start getting the really high numbers until recently. The CDO was actually smaller than the area ADT calculates to get its CDO temperature, so values were a little low earlier. I also hate leaning so heavily on only ADT at high intensities given how much it likes to prioritize CDO temps at ranges with few datapoints, but coupled with subjective Dvorak, it is the best tools we have right now honestly. MW estimates are pretty hopeless right now.
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Dylan
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
What is preventing this from getting an 8.0 dvorak?
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
euro6208 wrote:What is preventing this from getting an 8.0 dvorak?
Probably not a thick enough/fully complete CDG ring?
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