WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

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Highteeld
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#481 Postby Highteeld » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:14 pm

2020OCT31 004000 7.6 905.0 158.0 7.6 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.07 -80.52 EYE 9 IR 24.4 15.20 -128.66 ARCHER HIM-8 22.6
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#482 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:19 pm

160 knots, not even Hagibis or Halong got this during operational :double:
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#483 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:20 pm

Weather Dude wrote:22W GONI 201031 0000 15.3N 128.8E WPAC 160 895

Sub 900mb!


Remember that's just an estimate.

It was likely a sub 900mb typhoon for quite some time now. Very compact typhoon so the pressure gradient is very tight. It could be anywhere from 890mb to 870mb.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#484 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:21 pm

euro6208 wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:22W GONI 201031 0000 15.3N 128.8E WPAC 160 895

Sub 900mb!


Remember that's just an estimate.

It was likely a sub 900mb typhoon for quite some time now. Very compact typhoon so the pressure gradient is very tight. It could be anywhere from 890mb to 870mb.

I highly doubt is 870 but it could be in the 880's. Really wish recon was out there
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#485 Postby Highteeld » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:23 pm

Hayabusa wrote:160 knots, not even Hagibis or Halong got this during operational :double:

Indeed. Was good to see both storms get a boost in post season analysis. Both were handled well there, especially Halong (165/888).
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#486 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:28 pm

Goni is expanding looks like it is trying to get that eye done
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#487 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:32 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
euro6208 wrote:What is preventing this from getting an 8.0 dvorak?

Probably not a thick enough/fully complete CDG ring?

The CDG ring on Windy.com is around 90-95% complete.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#488 Postby Highteeld » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:36 pm

Eye temp cooling, WMG pixels gone. CDO starting to warm a bit too; inner eyewall losing the battle finally.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#489 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:37 pm

Highteeld wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:160 knots, not even Hagibis or Halong got this during operational :double:

Indeed. Was good to see both storms get a boost in post season analysis. Both were handled well there, especially Halong (165/888).


Good candidate for an increase post season.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#490 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:37 pm

It's moving SW holy mackerel
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#491 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:39 pm

SLIDER live loop
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=himawari&z=5&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=NaN&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=8371.67578125&y=7769.68701171875
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#492 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:49 pm

Reminds me a lot of Wilma on visible when it peaked. The wobbling of the eye and the spiral of deep convection on IR show this is finally succumbing to the outer eyewall. Hopefully this leaves Goni vulnerable to the expected increase in shear.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#493 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:52 pm

1900hurricane wrote:How do you estimate this storm? It's so small that nothing works right.


One thing is for sure. This is not the normal cat 5.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#494 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:02 pm

Wilma 2.0
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#495 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:10 pm

New JTWC forecast out. Anything south of that line is likely a Cat 5 landfall. This EWRC is the only hope...
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#496 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:12 pm

Wow so impressive on satellite :eek:
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#497 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:13 pm

Weather Dude wrote:New JTWC forecast out. Anything south of that line is likely a Cat 5 landfall. This EWRC is the only hope...

I’ve seen comparisons to Haiyan being mentioned...this better not have a successful eyewall meld. The 18z HWRF is the best-case scenario, and even that has a Cat 3 landfall near Manila.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#498 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:14 pm



Although Wilma was impressive that it was a large system but its original was rather microsmall..I believe Goni's small eye is even larger in comparison
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#499 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:14 pm

Saved loop:

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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#500 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:14 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 OCT 2020 Time : 011000 UTC
Lat : 15:10:48 N Lon : 128:30:35 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.6 / 902.6mb/158.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.6 7.6 7.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 8 km

Center Temp : +13.7C Cloud Region Temp : -80.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 103nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.7 degrees

****************************************************
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