WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

Again GFS, it was more reasonable in 12Z (154 knots) but this

[Ed_2001]

Wilma 2.0
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp22/1kmsrvis/2020wp22_1kmsrvis_202010310110.gif

two 185mph monsters 15 years and 10 days apart,

[ElectricStorm]

New JTWC forecast out. Anything south of that line is likely a Cat 5 landfall. This EWRC is the only hope...

I’ve seen comparisons to Haiyan being mentioned...this better not have a successful eyewall meld. The 18z HWRF is the best-case scenario, and even that has a Cat 3 landfall near Manila.

Yeah I've seen those comparisons too and if it's a meld and not a complete cycle it's going to be a major problem. Landfall wise it's a lose-lose. If it goes a little more north of the line it's going to give Manila a direct hit as a major but it it goes south of the line it could be a Cat 5 landfall, but weaker for Manila. Awful situation all around

[Hayabusa]

Latest warning, CPA to Manila is 2 nm (3.7 km), cat 2 winds.

WDPN31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI)
WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 454 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT, POWERFUL SYSTEM
WITH A WELL DEFINED 7 NM EYE. WHILE STILL COMPACT IN NATURE
IT HAS INCREASED IN SIZE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL
DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 160 KTS IS FURTHER PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T7.5 (155 KTS, PGTW AND RJTD) BASED ON RECENT
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.6
(158 KTS). ANALYSIS OF THE EYE WALL STRUCTURES IN SEVERAL
MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGESTS THAT AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
(ERC) IS IMMINENT. DESPITE THIS, THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE, CLOUD TOP AND EYE TEMPERATURES ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A WEAKENING PHASE, TYPICAL OF ERC, HAS NOT YET COMMENCED.
STY GONI HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA
AND THROUGH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM
(30 DEG CELSIUS) WATERS, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS AND ROBUST
RADIAL OUTFLOW. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ESPECIALLY STRONG.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY GONI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS TIME DUE TO THE ERC
AND, DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING
REPOSITIONING OF THE STEERING RIDGE, AND A SMALL INCREASE IN
VWS (15-20 KTS). STY GONI WILL THEN MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
COAST OF LUZON, EAST OF MANILA, BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS ACROSS
LUZON AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, IT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN DUE
TO TERRAIN INTERACTION TO AN INTENSITY OF 75 KTS BY TAU 48. AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BETWEEN TAU 48 AND
TAU 72, IT WILL STEADILY WEAKEN TO AN INTENSITY OF 60 KTS DUE
TO CONTINUED MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VWS. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS INITIAL PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WITH A TOTAL SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF 150 NM AT TAU 72. SPECIFICALLY THE NAVGEM
TRACK LIES NORTHWARD OF THE OTHER JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
MEMBERS. AS SUCH, THIS INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST IS
PLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR POSITIONED
TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, AND MAKE A SECOND
LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL VIETNAM COAST BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU
120. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODERATE VWS AND CONTINUED ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR.
NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST WITH ONLY NAVGEM PREDICTING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARDS HAINAN. THE REMAINING MEMBERS OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AGREE WITH A WESTWARD TRACK DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS
PLACED SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL FAIR
CONFIDENCE TO OFFSET THE NORTHWESTWARD BIAS CONTRIBUTED BY THE
NAVGEM TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Again GFS, it was more reasonable in 12Z (154 knots) but this

SAR did find instantaneous winds of 190 knots. The real intensity is probably around there 170 to 185 knots.

[ElectricStorm]

Again GFS, it was more reasonable in 12Z (154 knots) but this

SAR did find instantaneous winds of 190 knots. The real intensity is probably around there 170 to 185 knots.

Wouldn't those be gusts though? Peak of 170kts? Maybe, but I wouldn't go higher than that probably.

[Nimbus]

Google Earth has street views of Bagamanoc, I guess the thatch roofing is easier to renew than plywood?

[ElectricStorm]

When is the next microwave pass? It would be nice to see how the EWRC is coming along

[mrbagyo]

Over the controversial artificial beach

[dexterlabio]

Based on IR one can already tell an EWRC is taking place, and a moat could be forming (if my hunch is correct). So, yeah, maybe no eyewall meld for Goni.

[dexterlabio]

Over the controversial artificial beach
https://i.imgur.com/3hgFVIg.png

Man if that area gets into the south side of the eye and the winds pushing from the west to east, those precious sands can be driven all the way inland.

[ElectricStorm]

About to cross the 15th parallel... From the N...

[mrbagyo]

trochoidal wobbles - I bet this will be a flawless EWRC - not the cinnamon roll type ERC - I can't see dry air entraining the circulation.

[ElectricStorm]

Eye filling in on visible. EWRC in full effect.

[dexterlabio]

Eye filling in on visible. EWRC in full effect.
https://i.imgur.com/Ny88flW.gif

Goodbye pinhole eye, hello larger eye?

[Weatherboi1023]

Over the controversial artificial beach
https://i.imgur.com/3hgFVIg.png

Where's the link for this? I wanna see :

[dexterlabio]

Idk if this EWRC is a total good news because maximum winds will be spread over a wider area. I experienced 50 to 60kts winds through Conson in 2010 and that was enough to blow some of the neighborhood's roof sheets. It doesn't need to maintain 155kts+ to cause significant wind damage, moreso in the Metropolitan Manila area.

[mrbagyo]

GMI scored a partial hit but is good enough to show the ongoing eyewall replacement cycle.

[ElectricStorm]

I've got a bad feeling that this is going to be a pretty smooth EWRC... I really hope I'm wrong

[Hayabusa]

HWRF initialized it as almost 170 knots