ATL: ETA - Models

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skyline385
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#181 Postby skyline385 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:49 pm

It just blew up on IR as well
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#182 Postby Jr0d » Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:53 pm

Torgo wrote:Key West would be buffeted by sustained near hurricane force winds for at least 24 hours.


I am in Key West. Watching this closely now. As a general rule, when the models show it hitting us this far out, we are in the clear.

If the other models start to fall in line with the GFS, then I will really be concerned.

Wilma flooded over 80% of the island in 2005, obviously surge is a major problem here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#183 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:56 pm

Jr0d wrote:
Torgo wrote:Key West would be buffeted by sustained near hurricane force winds for at least 24 hours.


I am in Key West. Watching this closely now. As a general rule, when the models show it hitting us this far out, we are in the clear.

If the other models start to fall in line with the GFS, then I will really be concerned.

Wilma flooded over 80% of the island in 2005, obviously surge is a major problem here.


Can’t ignore 2nd run in a row with a potential Florida threat. It might be on to something.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#184 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:00 am

00z Euro will be interesting
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#185 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:01 am

Looks like HMON is in RI mode again...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#186 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:01 am

This is concerning if it continues.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#187 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:03 am

SFLcane wrote:This is concerning if it continues.

https://i.imgur.com/uoVzlgL.png

Coming from the 0z even. Usually the more bearish run :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#188 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:04 am

Anyone have the 00z UKMET?


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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#189 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:09 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#190 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:10 am



Wilma is that you???? :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#191 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:16 am

Likely a major at 958mb by hour 75 on 0z HMON...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#192 Postby skyline385 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:18 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:Anyone have the 00z UKMET?


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Nothing on the 0Z UKMET, gets pushed into the Pacific as a TD
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#193 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:23 am

GEFS ensembles clip Central America before heading north.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#194 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:27 am

0z HWRF going with the small-core solution again. Hurricane at hour 51
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#195 Postby skyline385 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:27 am

HWRF dropping 11mb in 3 hours
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#196 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:28 am

Weather Dude wrote:Looks like HMON is in RI mode again...


And looks to stay offshore
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#197 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:30 am

Weather Dude wrote:0z HWRF going with the small-core solution again. Hurricane at hour 51

HWRF is also establishing further north than 18z did.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#198 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:32 am

Pinhole on HMON as well. 932mb at hour 93, which appears to be it's peak as it undergoes EWRC.
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:39 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#199 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:35 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:0z HWRF going with the small-core solution again. Hurricane at hour 51

HWRF is also establishing further north than 18z did.

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Yea it’s near 17n which is further north the the 18z run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#200 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:36 am

Weather Dude wrote:Pinhole on HMON as well. 932mb at hour 93


This is a strong cat 4 on this run up to 93 hrs but could be a 5 if it misses Honduras
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