WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF still likes the big weakening trend. It's gonna have to have some shear disrupt the EWRC if it's going to weaken that much I would think. Not seeing anything affecting it right now though

[euro6208]

HWRF is spot on. This deserves at least 165 knots peak.

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF is spot on. This deserves at least 165 knots peak.

I'd be fine with an increase to 165kts post season. I will say though the JTWC handled this one MUCH better than many recent storms, hopefully it continues

[dexterlabio]

HWRF still likes the big weakening trend. It's gonna have to have some shear disrupt the EWRC if it's going to weaken that much I would think. Not seeing anything affecting it right now though

If it can be at least steady state until later's DMax then we'll be damned

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF still likes the big weakening trend. It's gonna have to have some shear disrupt the EWRC if it's going to weaken that much I would think. Not seeing anything affecting it right now though

If it can be at least steady state until later's DMax then we'll be damned

Yeah HWRF has the pressure all the way up to 995mb on the W side of the islands. While I wish that would happen, I just don't really see how it will...

[CrazyC83]

Looking at it, I'd probably go with 170 kt for the intensity. It isn't quite Patricia or Haiyan, but not too far below them.

[ElectricStorm]

Moat is filling in on IR and CDO cooling. Is there a recent microwave pass? I hope it's not an eyewall meld.

[Ed_2001]

Moat is filling in on IR and CDO cooling. Is there a recent microwave pass? I hope it's not an eyewall meld.

Wondering the same. Goni was looking like it's getting ready to undergo EWRC over the past few hours but then said sike and now the cloud tops and cooling and the eye is warming again
Curious to know what's actually happening beneath.

[Ed_2001]

Seriously how bizzare. Goni was showing classic signs of eyewall replacement earlier but now the pinhole eye have once again become clearer and rounder, the CDO has contracted, and Goni is now building a solid CMG ring w/embedded CDG like all of that EWRC didn't happen.

[mrbagyo]

[Ed_2001]

Is it really trying to do an eyewall merger?

[dexterlabio]

Is it really trying to do an eyewall merger?
https://i.ibb.co/1ZQQWg6/Capture11.png

It's hard to say...the outer eyewall is really close to the inner one

[Hayabusa]

Down to 155

22W GONI 201031 0600 14.7N 127.6E WPAC 155 900

[Thon1357]

I wonder when is the WNW turn going to happen. It seems like it's going further south now. It's really windy here now in Legazpi. I'm not sure if this is already from the typhoon but I think it's still too far. Maybe this could be a northeasterly surge. Do you think this affects Goni somehow?

[dexterlabio]

I wonder when is the WNW turn going to happen. It seems like it's going further south now. It's really windy here now in Legazpi. I'm not sure if this is already from the typhoon but I think it's still too far. Maybe this could be a northeasterly surge. Do you think this affects Goni somehow?

If i were in the Bicol region I'd be really sweating bullets as I wait for the SW dip to stop.

[mrbagyo]

cloud tops cooling again

I'm getting a slight Haiyan vibe on the current shape of the CDO.

[Ed_2001]

cloud tops cooling again

I'm getting a slight Haiyan vibe on the current shape of the CDO.

https://i.imgur.com/IdtPTuk.gif

What's real disconcerting is that the eye has stopped wobbling and started to clear as well and the expected EWRC induced weakening as stopped.
I'm off to bed on the west coast of USA now...I've been obsessing over this storm too much over the past couple days when I have more urgents things to do right now. But I wish the best of luck to you all in the path of the storm in the Philippines.

[NotoSans]

A 21Z SAR pass reveals 156kt sustained winds near the center, but one can argue even SAR cannot resolve the core. Still, the SAR pass lends some credence to JTWC's peak estimate.
 https://twitter.com/squirtleinhk/status/1322440515334238210

[mrbagyo]

We still have sunlight yet the CDG is trying to wrap around the eye - how much more during Dmax

[Shell Mound]

We still have sunlight yet the CDG is trying to wrap around the eye - how much more during Dmax
https://i.imgur.com/u0Bb6eZ.gif

The expansion of the CDO to the west is not suggestive of increasing vertical wind shear, but rather the diametrical opposite, that is, an increasingly conducive environment for reorganisation while the path or arc of the system “flattens.” If anything, the strongest net shear looks to originate not from the north, but from the southeast, given the influence of a strengthening mid-level jet. Yet the CDO remains nearly as symmetrical as ever, with the eye being well centred, even during the ongoing EWRC. At this stage, I think significant weakening prior to landfall is looking increasingly unlikely.