WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[ManilaTC]

We still have sunlight yet the CDG is trying to wrap around the eye - how much more during Dmax
https://i.imgur.com/u0Bb6eZ.gif

The expansion of the CDO to the west is not suggestive of increasing vertical wind shear, but rather the diametrical opposite, that is, an increasingly conducive environment for reorganisation while the path or arc of the system “flattens.” If anything, the strongest net shear looks to originate not from the north, but from the southeast, given the influence of a strengthening mid-level jet. Yet the CDO remains nearly as symmetrical as ever, with the eye being well centred, even during the ongoing EWRC. At this stage, I think significant weakening prior to landfall is looking increasingly unlikely.

Does that western extension mean that its about to turn more to the west now in the coming hours?

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 OCT 2020 Time : 070000 UTC
Lat : 14:35:24 N Lon : 127:22:47 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.6 / 903.9mb/158.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.2 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : +3.9C Cloud Region Temp : -78.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Hayabusa]

Latest warning

[mrbagyo]

I hope GEOSTAR would be operational soon - so we will no longer second guess the current internal structure of a TC in the absence of a bullseye microwave pass from polar orbiting satellites.

[Shell Mound]

Latest warning
https://i.imgur.com/Q9aWdfe.gif

This forecast basically implies steady-state intensity until landfall over the Bicol Region of Luzon, Philippines, as a borderline Cat-4/-5 typhoon.

Even after landfall the next forecast point shows a 130-knot system heading WNW across Lamon Bay, implying relatively low VWS at the time.

[Ed_2001]

Y I K E S

(Yes, I said I was going to sleep, but looks like the EWRC was extremely successful)

[mrbagyo]

holy mackerel

[Hayabusa]

T raws rising

2020OCT31 061000 7.6 902.8 158.0 6.7 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF 4.39 -78.06 EYE 10 IR 24.4 14.69 -127.57 ARCHER HIM-8 22.9
2020OCT31 064000 7.6 902.8 158.0 6.8 7.3 7.3 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF 6.58 -78.63 EYE 10 IR 24.4 14.64 -127.45 ARCHER HIM-8 23.0
2020OCT31 070000 7.6 903.9 158.0 6.9 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 3.92 -78.70 EYE 10 IR 24.4 14.59 -127.38 ARCHER HIM-8 23.0
2020OCT31 074000 7.6 903.9 158.0 7.1 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 8.07 -79.44 EYE 10 IR 24.4 14.53 -127.30 ARCHER HIM-8 23.0

[Cunxi Huang]

Yep the "melding" ERC is done. New eyewall looks absolutely violent.

 https://twitter.com/CharlieFurWx/status/1322450523023273985

[Shell Mound]

At this stage EWRCs, along with terrain, will be the main conditioner(s). Since the EWRC seems to be completing, I don’t see anything preventing this from re-intensifying up until multiple landfalls on the regions Bicol and Calabarzon, Luzon. Outflow looks to remain well established through the period of impact. This could very well rival or exceed Haiyan (Yolanda) in terms of impact, given that Manila’s position looks increasingly perilous, while intensity may well increase rather than decrease before interaction with land sets in. This is likely to be a historic system and should merit more attention from the world.

[mrbagyo]

165 to 170 knots by 12z?

[mrbagyo]

T numbers rising again

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 OCT 2020 Time : 080000 UTC
Lat : 14:29:23 N Lon : 127:12:35 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.5 / 907.1mb/155.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.5 7.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : +8.2C Cloud Region Temp : -79.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 92nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.0 degrees

[Kingarabian]

Thankfully most landfalling beasts of the WPAC usually don't landfall at their peaks although they remain potent major hurricanes. Wonder if that will be the case with Goni. I hope it is.

[Hayabusa]

165 to 170 knots by 12z?
https://i.imgur.com/p5et4zy.jpg

That would be a record, I can't think of a typhoon at that part of the Philippine Sea that peaked at that range (Angela was only around 155 knots), like this is what if 2014 Hagupit intense forecast materialized.

[doomhaMwx]

Thankfully most landfalling beasts of the WPAC usually don't landfall at their peaks although they remain potent major hurricanes. Wonder if that will be the case with Goni. I hope it is.

Not really the case for the Philippines most of the time.

[Cunxi Huang]

JTWC heavily relies on Subjective Dvorak and ADT when no other aids are available supporting a higher intensity. If the upcoming 12Z JTWC analyzes a 7.5/7.5 and ADT supports CI7.8, then 165 kt would be possible.

165 to 170 knots by 12z?
https://i.imgur.com/p5et4zy.jpg

[Hayabusa]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Man, I'm worried about this... if my late grandfather who recently passed (who was a Haiyan survivor) were still alive, he would've been in the hospital in Manila riding this thing out. This year has been rough... I hope all of us ride this thing out safely. Not to mention the complications that have arisen because of COVID-19 and the need to be issuing evacuation orders while maintaining protocols. There's nothing stopping it now, Haiyan made us learn things the hard way. Lots of family in the Metro and nearby areas. Keep safe x

[Meteophile]

 https://twitter.com/Meteophile1/status/1322465598765490176

[Hayabusa]

On second note there was one 170 knot TC (based on JTWC best track) that occurred at that part of the Philippine Sea, it was Super Typhoon Opal of 1964
That is if that record was really reliable.