ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

The Upper level Anticyclone is just about to connect with the circulation of 96L, be prepared for a powerful hurricane by next week. (10/30/2020)

[Iceresistance]

There was another ASCAT pass, but the data failed to come in.

[Iceresistance]

Still at 30 mph & 1007 MB, 96L must be holding its own for now.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks less organized tonight compared to last night. Hopefully 96L takes its sweet time getting organized so the only threat to Nicaragua and Honduras is flooding rains, and mudslides and not wind too.

[Iceresistance]

Less organized tonight compared to last night. Hopefully 96L takes its sweet time getting organized so the only threat to Nicaragua and Honduras is flooding rains, and mudslides and not wind too.

It's actually holding it's own for now.

[Iceresistance]

ASCAT-B without data even working! ;-;

[supercane4867]

There might be a low level spin forming

[gatorcane]

Looks less organized tonight compared to last night. Hopefully 96L takes its sweet time getting organized so the only threat to Nicaragua and Honduras is flooding rains, and mudslides and not wind too.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/goes16_ir_96L_202010302225.gif

Once it reaches the Central-Western Caribbean it may start to rapidly organize. It is heading for an area where we have seen some of the most rapid intensification in the entire Atlantic basin. If it slows down over the Western Caribbean as it approaches CA, which it should, watch out

[Iceresistance]

There might be a low level spin forming

https://i.imgur.com/1B6wnMN.gif

I can't tell, needs to wait until tomorrow or ASCAT. (Which is either missing 96L or data fails to come in!)

[Sanibel]

The graveyard effect holds true even in late season...As does the west of Jamaica effect where systems under suspended animation develop...

[skyline385]

Looks less organized tonight compared to last night. Hopefully 96L takes its sweet time getting organized so the only threat to Nicaragua and Honduras is flooding rains, and mudslides and not wind too.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/goes16_ir_96L_202010302225.gif

Once it reaches the Central-Western Caribbean it may start to rapidly organize. It is heading for an area where we have seen some of the most rapid intensification in the entire Atlantic basin. If it slows down over the Western Caribbean as it approaches CA, which it should, watch out

Both 12Z and 18Z HWRF had it explosively intensify with a pinhole eye. Lots of Tropical cyclone heat potential in its path.

[weeniepatrol]

[ElectricStorm]

Looks less organized tonight compared to last night. Hopefully 96L takes its sweet time getting organized so the only threat to Nicaragua and Honduras is flooding rains, and mudslides and not wind too.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/goes16_ir_96L_202010302225.gif

Once it reaches the Central-Western Caribbean it may start to rapidly organize. It is heading for an area where we have seen some of the most rapid intensification in the entire Atlantic basin. If it slows down over the Western Caribbean as it approaches CA, which it should, watch out

Both 12Z and 18Z HWRF had it explosively intensify with a pinhole eye. Lots of Tropical cyclone heat potential in its path.

0z running now. Let's see if it keeps that trend going.

[SFLcane]

[TallahasseeMan]

Blowing up on IR tonight.




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[SFLcane]

[tiger_deF]

This convective burst really shows the nearly perfect shear environment around 96L. The outflow is almost entirely symmetrical and there is hardly a break or bias to one side to be seen.

[skyline385]

This is some incredible convection for just a tropical wave

https://imgur.com/a/kPbWhiv

[Jr0d]

I suspect PTC advisories will be issued later today, if not tropical storm advisories. In my amatuer analysis, there may be tropical storm force winds already, however a closed low is uncertain.

It's too bad there won't be a recon mission today.

[kevin]

Had to post this loop so it would be saved somewhere in the archives. I can't remember having seen this much pink before for a system that wasn't even designated as a TD or PTC yet.