ATL: ETA - Models

[Blown Away]

TVCN continues to bury 96L into CA and on 06z shows it emerging into EPAC. If NHC initiates advisories a track very close to what the TVCN is showing now would be likely. Let’s not forget the GFS does tend to underestimate HP and have a R bias.

[jlauderdal]

We’re is Gatorcane? Here is his Nogaps with an intensifying tc heading NE.

2002 wants its nogaps back

[TheStormExpert]

TVCN continues to bury 96L into CA and on 06z shows it emerging into EPAC. If NHC initiates advisories a track very close to what the TVCN is showing now would be likely. Let’s not forget the GFS does tend to underestimate HP and have a R bias.

Yep! That’s why I’m not buying the GFS. Until the Euro shows a similar solution or we see MANY runs of consistency I’m sticking to my idea of 96L going into CA.

[SFLcane]

I would say the GFS is definitely on to something here and can’t be ignored 3 runs in a row now.

[northjaxpro]

I would say the GFS is definitely on to something here and can’t be ignored 3 runs in a row now.

https://i.imgur.com/MQV160K.gif

I agree with you SFL Cane for sure. The 06Z GFS run is really an attention grabber I can tell you that.

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

GEFS ensembles just clip CA and head north.

[SFLcane]

Bam models also shifted north now.

[TheStormExpert]

:crazyeyes:

https://i.imgur.com/Usgt64N.png

What does the 00z EPS look like?

[Nimbus]

06Z HWRF resolves the track split at 72 hours with a dive into Honduras where no trough is going to lift it out. GFS and some of the other models are shifting the track north at about 5 days with lower resolution algorithms. To be honest HWRF was showing Zeta sheared and pulled north over Cuba by the first trough within 72 hours of the Cozumel landfall which was a neurotic fairy-tale. Higher resolution models use more memory so if they don't outperform in certain situations it would be an awful waste of space.

[Loveweather12]

I would say the GFS is definitely on to something here and can’t be ignored 3 runs in a row now.

https://i.imgur.com/MQV160K.gif

I agree with you SFL Cane for sure. The 06Z GFS run is really an attention grabber I can tell you that.

I agree with you both. I’m watching too.
I see posts this morning saying don’t take Gfs seriously but when it showed what they want it to show, no problems. I watch every run & so I agree with you & SFL Cane. Thank you both for all you do.

[xironman]

For the GFS it is the shortwave energy that cuts off going from TX to LA that does the trick. A small feature at this time length and the GFS is pretty lonely in forecasting it.

[Shell Mound]

TVCN continues to bury 96L into CA and on 06z shows it emerging into EPAC. If NHC initiates advisories a track very close to what the TVCN is showing now would be likely. Let’s not forget the GFS does tend to underestimate HP and have a R bias.

The TVCN is heavily weighted toward the EPS-related guidance. Since the EPS is underestimating current short-term organisation, it should be given less weight, even though the H5 pattern is likely to verify closer to the EPS than the GEFS. A stronger system in the short term is more likely to slow down and stall sooner before turning northward. Maybe the system will linger over the Gulf of Honduras for a longer time before finally curving toward Cuba and possibly Florida. In this situation I would blend the GEFS/HWRF’s intensity with the EPS’s H5 pattern to generate a “best fit.”

[ScottNAtlanta]

Euro doesn't make much sense. Buries it into CA and a genesis in the EPAC then suddenly creates a TC off of Belize that heads east in a Lenny type track. I dont buy that run and needless to say the Euro has been dreadful with genesis this season

[northjaxpro]

TVCN continues to bury 96L into CA and on 06z shows it emerging into EPAC. If NHC initiates advisories a track very close to what the TVCN is showing now would be likely. Let’s not forget the GFS does tend to underestimate HP and have a R bias.

The TVCN is heavily weighted toward the EPS-related guidance. Since the EPS is underestimating current short-term organisation, it should be given less weight, even though the H5 pattern is likely to verify closer to the EPS than the GEFS. A stronger system in the short term is more likely to slow down and stall sooner before turning northward. Maybe the system will linger over the Gulf of Honduras for a longer time before finally curving toward Cuba and possibly Florida. In this situation I would blend the GEFS/HWRF’s intensity with the EPS’s H5 pattern to generate a “best fit.”

Excellent analysis Shell Mound.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Still waiting for the GFS Para to run, but its metronome like back and forth over FL yesterday was...hard to believe

[xironman]

The Euro makes more sense if you follow the ensembles. It appears on a few of the runs the low stays alive in CA and eventually is pulled north by the shortwave energy.

[Shell Mound]

The Euro makes more sense if you follow the ensembles. It appears on a few of the runs the low stays alive in CA and eventually is pulled north by the shortwave energy.

https://i.imgur.com/EzVdIiG.gif

Yet none of those members is deeper than ~995 mb prior to interaction with Central America. Based on current trends 96L will likely be much deeper then.

[SFLcane]

The Euro makes more sense if you follow the ensembles. It appears on a few of the runs the low stays alive in CA and eventually is pulled north by the shortwave energy.

https://i.imgur.com/EzVdIiG.gif

Yet none of those members is deeper than ~995 mb prior to interaction with Central America. Based on current trends 96L will likely be much deeper then.

This! We could be looking at strengthening hurricane way before.

[Shell Mound]

The Euro makes more sense if you follow the ensembles. It appears on a few of the runs the low stays alive in CA and eventually is pulled north by the shortwave energy.

https://i.imgur.com/EzVdIiG.gif

Yet none of those members is deeper than ~995 mb prior to interaction with Central America. Based on current trends 96L will likely be much deeper then.

This! We could be looking at strengthening hurricane way before.

The key is that all the models with the best handle on current intensity (GFS/HWRF) trends only show 96L scraping Central America at best, not heading well inland.