ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm not quite sure this is closed off yet at the low levels. Its fast forward speed and the typical Eastern Caribbean fast trades make it hard to get a west wind, but a little further when the trades slow and pile up this will be ready to go. It should be a depression when recon gets there, if not a TS

[Shell Mound]

Had to post this loop so it would be saved somewhere in the archives. I can't remember having seen this much pink before for a system that wasn't even designated as a TD or PTC yet.

https://imgur.com/jzOEtpJ

Yeah, my biggest fear may be realized soon with.this quickly developing cyclone . This system has all the makings to become one of the most intense tropical cyclones EVER in the Caribbean. The upper level environment now going forward is about as perfect as you can have it with very minimal shear and a robust anticyclone over it. Plus, on top of that, very excellent OHÇ and warm ssts for future Eta to really feed and grow. I have no doubt that we are well looking at a strong potential of yet another major tropical cyclone in the coming days, a potential Cat 4 or even a 5 is definitely.on the table.

I said back on Thursday that it would be foolish to not keep ALL options on the table with this cyclone. You are talking about a very late season storm in the Caribbean, which are at times a very tricky and difficult proposition to forecast. Caribbean cyclones this time.of the year can be very complex and challenging to forecast. This cyclone will not be any different!

ALL interests across the Caribbean need to stay vigilant! Yes, the Eastern GOM and everyone of us in Florida needs to closely monitor the progress of this developing cyclone. The insanity of 2020 just keeps on going like the EverReady Energizer Bunny. It just keeps on going and going unfortunately. This season will go down as THE MOTHER of all of them when it will finally be over and done, God we hope it will be eventually!

northjaxpro lays it down and starts taking names. Models thread looking and smelling like a locker room. GFS dishing up post-election doom for FL. Interesting times.

It would be quintessentially “20/20” if the strongest U.S. landfall of the season were to occur in early November, following Goni’s ravaging Manila...

[Do_For_Love]

A Caribbean invest with RI potential and track uncertainty? Nope, the 2020 hurricane season isn't quitting yet. Crazy...

[NDG]

What are the people that were giving a 0.00001% chance of 96L threatening FL saying this morning?

[northjaxpro]

What are the people that were giving a 0.00001% chance of 96L threatening FL saying this morning?

You know my lifelong mantra certainly by now, which is now placed in my signature!

[us89]

What are the people that were giving a 0.00001% chance of 96L threatening FL saying this morning?

Well, given the recent GFS and ensemble runs I’m not ruling it out...

[Frank2]

The short-term motion/position of #96L could be important to its long-term track. ECMWF shows it far enough southwest by Monday to get trapped under the Texas ridge and plow directly into Central America. GFS keeps it further NE and is now offshore. pic.twitter.com/NbBq1hlDW1
-- Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) October 31, 2020

Joe Bastardi also tweeted his thought that 96 will be a CA concern.

Considering the strong high forecast to build by Tuesday the ECMWF is probably correct this time - the GFS might be overplaying the trough.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1322503943814041609

[wxman57]

Looks like the overnight GFS runs are the only ones taking it back north after landfall in Nicaragua/Honduras. GFS ensembles mostly bury it in Nicaragua. I wouldn't rule out any threat to Florida. Maybe a 20% chance. However, my money is still on Louisiana...

[SFLcane]

Looks like the overnight GFS runs are the only ones taking it back north after landfall in Nicaragua/Honduras. GFS ensembles mostly bury it in Nicaragua. I wouldn't rule out any threat to Florida. Maybe a 20% chance. However, my money is still on Louisiana...

?

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 96, 2020103112, , BEST, 0, 150N, 709W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 100, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

[supercane4867]

[NDG]

Looks like the overnight GFS runs are the only ones taking it back north after landfall in Nicaragua/Honduras. GFS ensembles mostly bury it in Nicaragua. I wouldn't rule out any threat to Florida. Maybe a 20% chance. However, my money is still on Louisiana...

Which GFS ensemble are you looking at, the majority clearly brings it up north.

[Shell Mound]

Joe Bastardi also tweeted his thought that 96 will be a CA concern.

Now that might be a bad sign for Florida. It just might.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like the overnight GFS runs are the only ones taking it back north after landfall in Nicaragua/Honduras. GFS ensembles mostly bury it in Nicaragua. I wouldn't rule out any threat to Florida. Maybe a 20% chance. However, my money is still on Louisiana...

Why not...everything else has gone there

[cp79]

What are the people that were giving a 0.00001% chance of 96L threatening FL saying this morning?

Not sure if referring to me, but I still give it the same chance. Sorry I just don’t see it. I’ll eat crow if I’m wrong, but many models still have it slamming and staying in CA. And I hold that if it pulls away from the CA it will get kicked ENE out to sea, not north. The other scenario is possibly riding the ridge into the western Gulf and affecting La./Texas. Too many people I disagree with here...I’m just trying to bring some reality and the other opinion to the equation.

As for development, this thing looks to me to be a TD now. Feel the NHC at least has to issue an advisory by 11.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I still like the GFS Para doing the metronome over the S FL peninsula...back and forth...I think that goes beyond drunk...that be trippin'

[wxman57]

Looks like the overnight GFS runs are the only ones taking it back north after landfall in Nicaragua/Honduras. GFS ensembles mostly bury it in Nicaragua. I wouldn't rule out any threat to Florida. Maybe a 20% chance. However, my money is still on Louisiana...

?

https://i.postimg.cc/63sDrk6w/7374-B23-D-EBEA-4-C30-99-E7-3069-C27-AE4-C3.jpg

About 20 of the 30 GFS ensembles keep it south in the Caribbean. About 8-9 take it north as a hurricane. I didn't say ALL members keep it south, but most do:

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL96_2020103106_GEFS.png?1604143683

As do most of the EC ensembles:
https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidanc ... 1604139394

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1322533688681353216

[Jr0d]

I'm not quite sure this is closed off yet at the low levels. Its fast forward speed and the typical Eastern Caribbean fast trades make it hard to get a west wind, but a little further when the trades slow and pile up this will be ready to go. It should be a depression when recon gets there, if not a TS

Think they might go PTC at 11am? Then tropical.storm when a closed circulation is apparent?

There is no doubt in my mind this has 35kt+ sustained winds now.