Oh no...it had a successful eyewall meld. This is the worst case scenario now.
WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Oh no...it had a successful eyewall meld. This is the worst case scenario now.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Hayabusa wrote:euro6208 wrote:06z GFS initialization...880 mb...
207 knots init
Just imagine waiting for the recon data to come in. Very tight pressure gradient and very compact system. Dropsonde released in the 5 nm pinhole.
and flight level/SFMR supporting winds of 170 to 185 knots. 
Pressure could be anywhere between 860 to 880 now.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
CDG ring.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
2020OCT31 114000 7.4 910.3 152.0 7.4 7.6 7.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 12.12 -80.82 EYE 12 IR 54.0 14.21 -126.49 ARCHER HIM-8 23.4
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Well...
TPPN13 PGTW 311214
A. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI)
B. 31/1140Z
C. 14.14N
D. 126.51E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.0/7.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RHOADES
A. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI)
B. 31/1140Z
C. 14.14N
D. 126.51E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.0/7.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RHOADES
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Preliminary maintain
22W GONI 201031 1200 14.2N 126.5E WPAC 155 904
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Hayabusa wrote:Preliminary maintain22W GONI 201031 1200 14.2N 126.5E WPAC 155 904
That’s fair. It’s unclear how long this apparent strengthening phase is going to last, because there appears to be shear coming from the east.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Keldeo1997
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
looks like something broke on the GFS .Initialized at 879 MB and over 200kts
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
JMA also maintains at Halong level on their wind scale
Track forecast over Batangas
TY 2019 (Goni)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 31 October 2020
<Analysis at 12 UTC, 31 October>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N14°10' (14.2°)
E126°30' (126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 95 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 410 km (220 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 1 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N13°30' (13.5°)
E124°00' (124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (35 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 1 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°50' (13.8°)
E121°40' (121.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 120 km (65 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 155 km (85 NM)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 31 October 2020
<Analysis at 12 UTC, 31 October>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N14°10' (14.2°)
E126°30' (126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 95 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 410 km (220 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)
<Forecast for 00 UTC, 1 November>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N13°30' (13.5°)
E124°00' (124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 945 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (35 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
<Forecast for 12 UTC, 1 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°50' (13.8°)
E121°40' (121.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 120 km (65 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 155 km (85 NM)
Track forecast over Batangas
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Likely approaching Haiyan intensity. Would estimate 170 knots right now and still increasing
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Highteeld wrote:Likely approaching Haiyan intensity. Would estimate 170 knots right now and still increasing
Yes I agree
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Hayabusa wrote:Well...TPPN13 PGTW 311214
A. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI)
B. 31/1140Z
C. 14.14N
D. 126.51E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.0/7.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RHOADES
Rhodes... How the heck do you get 7.0 out of a full CDG ring...
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Back to 7.8
2020OCT31 124000 7.4 910.3 152.0 7.4 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 13.03 -82.03 EYE 12 IR 54.0 14.10 -126.20 ARCHER HIM-8 23.5
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
In the Philippines where PAGASA is the official warning center, Goni is being warned as a 115 knot typhoon gusting to 145 knots of course in 10 minute average.
They even use the term Super Typhoon when winds reach 120 knots so technically still a typhoon. They use kilometers per hour on mainstream and advisories for some reason.
Residents don't know the severity of Goni. That's why we need recon back and have 1 centralized agency managing and countries helping each other just like NHC does in the Atlantic.
They even use the term Super Typhoon when winds reach 120 knots so technically still a typhoon. They use kilometers per hour on mainstream and advisories for some reason.
Residents don't know the severity of Goni. That's why we need recon back and have 1 centralized agency managing and countries helping each other just like NHC does in the Atlantic.
Last edited by euro6208 on Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:28 am, edited 2 times in total.
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NWS for the Western Pacific
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Kazmit
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Some billionaire needs to start a private TC recon operation for the WPac. Just for the science.
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Weather Dude wrote:Hayabusa wrote:Well...TPPN13 PGTW 311214
A. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI)
B. 31/1140Z
C. 14.14N
D. 126.51E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.0/7.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RHOADES
Rhodes... How the heck do you get 7.0 out of a full CDG ring...
This is very close to an 8.0. What's missing?
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NWS for the Western Pacific
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1900hurricane
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Weather Dude wrote:Hayabusa wrote:Well...TPPN13 PGTW 311214
A. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI)
B. 31/1140Z
C. 14.14N
D. 126.51E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T7.0/7.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RHOADES
Rhodes... How the heck do you get 7.0 out of a full CDG ring...
I like to bag on the weird stuff Rhoades does as much as the next guy, but this fix looks solid at the time (1140Z). The eye had cooled to off-white, and the embedded shade clearly was CMG. Using the DT as the FT gives you 7.0 in that case, but the CI remains 7.5.
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:22 am, edited 2 times in total.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
The southern portion of the eyewall of typhoon #Goni / #RollyPH is starting to manifest on PAGASA's radar.
PAGASA radar image (nexrad level III color scheme) via Rainviewer.com
PAGASA radar image (nexrad level III color scheme) via Rainviewer.com
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
22W GONI 201031 1200 14.2N 126.5E WPAC 155 904
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
just wondering what's the current ACE of GONI?
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