ATL: ETA - Models

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1322507908698038275

[NDG]

For the GFS it is the shortwave energy that cuts off going from TX to LA that does the trick. A small feature at this time length and the GFS is pretty lonely in forecasting it.

https://i.imgur.com/6qAHPNF.gif

The GFS has been very persistent with that shortwave. The Euro also shows it but 24 hrs later.

[cp79]

Everyone was trashing the GFS last week and now it’s a great model. Find it funny.

Still think this crashes into CA. The Euro solution of this breaking apart is interesting. I do agree with Euro run yesterday that if it breaks apart it kicks ENE and out to sea. The US will be safe from this.

[toad strangler]

Everyone was trashing the GFS last week and now it’s a great model. Find it funny.

Still think this crashes into CA. The Euro solution of this breaking apart is interesting. I do agree with Euro run yesterday that if it breaks apart it kicks ENE and out to sea. The US will be safe from this.

Who was saying that the GFS is a “great” model. I don’t see anything of the sort. Looks to me like some aren’t discounting it, that’s all.

[Blown Away]

The theme of this season is modeling underestimating the ridge. GFS on the right and Euro on the left and bury into CA in the middle which seems the likely outcome ATM.

[Jr0d]

The EURO is notorious for overdoing ridges, the GFS over estimates troughs....

Middle-ground might be the most reasonable solution here.

The recon data, especially from the high-altitude missions is invaluable right now. Unfortunately we have a few more days of watching the models with incomplete inputs.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I dont know, but I think the Euro has been a lot worse this year than in the past. It has been abysmal with genesis. How many times has it completely missed something until it is already developed?

[NDG]

The EURO is notorious for overdoing ridges, the GFS over estimates troughs....

Middle-ground might be the most reasonable solution here.

The recon data, especially from the high-altitude missions is invaluable right now. Unfortunately we have a few more days of watching the models with incomplete inputs.

I agree, a consensus between the two is what will most like be the outcome as usual.

I say that 96L will make landfall in Nicaragua/Honduras border area but then go north back to the Caribbean.
So in another words not go go as far inland as the Euro has it and for it not to stay offshore as the latest GFS has it.

[Shell Mound]

The EURO is notorious for overdoing ridges, the GFS over estimates troughs....

Middle-ground might be the most reasonable solution here.

The recon data, especially from the high-altitude missions is invaluable right now. Unfortunately we have a few more days of watching the models with incomplete inputs.

I agree, a consensus between the two is what will most like be the outcome as usual.

I say that 96L will make landfall in Nicaragua/Honduras border area but then go north back to the Caribbean.
So in another words not go go as far inland as the Euro has it and for it not to stay offshore as the latest GFS has it.

That’s my “forecast” as well. The key is that a brief landfall, say, near Cabo Gracias a Dios would result in very little weakening, as mountains lie well inland.

[northjaxpro]

I dont know, but I think the Euro has been a lot worse this year than in the past. It has been abysmal with genesis. How many times has it completely missed something until it is already developed?

Well, overall, all of the normally reliable global models have performed poorly this season. However, there is no question in all of my years doing this, I have never seen the EURO perform so poorly with genesis of cyclones this season.overall. This 2020 season has been so utterly insane off the rails with extremes in which that it is understandable how the reliables all have struggled.

[cp79]

I dont know, but I think the Euro has been a lot worse this year than in the past. It has been abysmal with genesis. How many times has it completely missed something until it is already developed?

I will give the Euro credit in that they were showing the big west shifts in Laura, Delta and Zeta before others. Theyve seemed to do really well with systems in the Caribbean/gulf this year given how they forecasted them and how others followed and then the final track. I kinda write off the GFs because they’ve been awful with early forecasting with systems in the Caribbean this year. They initially had Zeta hitting the Bahamas and Bermuda.

[Deshaunrob17]

I dont know, but I think the Euro has been a lot worse this year than in the past. It has been abysmal with genesis. How many times has it completely missed something until it is already developed?

In my opinion GFs Para has been the best model for tropical.cyclones.... It picked up on genesis and intensity very well- not so much track though... Good examples were Zeta and Delta

[cp79]

I dont know, but I think the Euro has been a lot worse this year than in the past. It has been abysmal with genesis. How many times has it completely missed something until it is already developed?

In my opinion GFs Para has been the best model for tropical.cyclones.... It picked up on genesis and inte situ very well- not so much track though... Good examples were Zeta and Delta

Well they got Savannah under the gun right now.

[Deshaunrob17]

I dont know, but I think the Euro has been a lot worse this year than in the past. It has been abysmal with genesis. How many times has it completely missed something until it is already developed?

In my opinion GFs Para has been the best model for tropical.cyclones.... It picked up on genesis and inte situ very well- not so much track though... Good examples were Zeta and Delta

Honestly almost every system the gfs para developed when others weren't developing actually developed... Para was the first to hint Gamma, Delta, Zeta and this system among many others

[NDG]

The trend of the Euro ensembles is of a trend closer to the GFS solution.

[SFLcane]

The trend of the Euro ensembles is of a trend closer to the GFS solution.

https://i.imgur.com/R2u5BR0.gif

Wow! I see it

[cp79]

The trend of the Euro ensembles is of a trend closer to the GFS solution.

https://i.imgur.com/R2u5BR0.gif

Still a lot of Euros have it going into EPAC which I still think is the most likely scenario. It’s just not 90/10 like yesterday. Maybe 70/30.

I still go with a CA system and dying there or going into EPAC at 70%, a N and then NE curve out to Atlantic at 20%, a Zeta track at 5%, and something other than that at 5%.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like it will be all about timing once again. The slower it moves the more likely it is to get picked up and head north east. Also how far west it gets before that happens will determine if it’s a threat to Florida or heads out to sea after crossing Cuba

[GeneratorPower]

The trend of the Euro ensembles is of a trend closer to the GFS solution.

https://i.imgur.com/R2u5BR0.gif

This isn’t showing properly. You’re using two different valid times in the GIF.

[aspen]

00z GFS-Para has Eta stall just east of CA, then gets dragged north into Cuba and the SEUS.