WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

just wondering what's the current ACE of GONI?

19.4775 units as of 12Z.

[euro6208]

7.8 is 165 knots!

[ElectricStorm]

Preliminary maintain

22W GONI 201031 1200 14.2N 126.5E WPAC 155 904

That’s fair. It’s unclear how long this apparent strengthening phase is going to last, because there appears to be shear coming from the east.

I feel like that shear isn't going to have much of an effect on a storm of this caliber considering the shear is moving in the same direction as the storm

[euro6208]

Any storm chasers chasing this?

James Reynolds and Josh Morgerman couldn't make it to the Philippines because of the ongoing pandemic. Wow talk about some lost records.

[dexterlabio]

Any westward or WNW wobble would be a saving moment for those areas in Bicol region hit by Typhoon Molave, just a week ago,

[Highteeld]

This is getting extremely close to being a legitimate T 8.0

[aspen]

This is getting extremely close to being a legitimate T 8.0

https://i.imgur.com/tfzgC23.png

If that new larger eye fully clears out before landfall, it’s an easy Haiyan-esqe T#8.0. Might even get the JTWC to upgrade it to 165-175 kt.

[Fancy1001]

Why is there no recon in the West Pacific?

[Highteeld]

Eye temp really starting to increase again. I'd expect a RAW T back up to 7.8 or 7.9 at 1340z

[Highteeld]

Looking at the eye shape, it looks like there are mini rosby waves/mesovorticies. Wind gusts up to 200 knots could be happening inside of those

[mrbagyo]

just wondering what's the current ACE of GONI?

19.4775 units as of 12Z.

thanks!
WPAC trying to catch up with Atlantic's ACE.

Any storm chasers chasing this?

James Reynolds and Josh Morgerman couldn't make it to the Philippines because of the ongoing pandemic. Wow talk about some lost records.

I'd probably chase it also if there's no pandemic - I've been to Bicol several times (including Catanduanes). IMO, Bicol region (except Catanduanes) is a more chase friendly location than the East coast of the Northern and Central Part of Luzon.


Rant: Philippine weather observation network system sucks - most sensors and instruments are not active or they give inaccurate readings and it's common to see "no data available". We always need to rely with private entity for these weather obs.
Anyway, some ordinary people who owns higher tear smartphone with pressure sensors can record the barometric pressure of Goni (off course if they are aware of this functionality and they know how to calibrate their device) - most iphones have barometers, even the flagships of Samsung and Chinese smartphone makers (Xiaomi and One Plus) contains pressure sensor.

[Hayabusa]

Back to 7.8

2020OCT31 124000 7.4 910.3 152.0 7.4 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 13.03 -82.03 EYE 12 IR 54.0 14.10 -126.20 ARCHER HIM-8 23.5
2020OCT31 131000 7.4 911.8 152.0 7.4 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -3.67 -82.23 EYE 10 IR 54.0 14.11 -126.02 ARCHER HIM-8 23.7
2020OCT31 133000 7.5 908.7 155.0 7.5 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 12.15 -82.05 EYE 12 IR 54.0 14.05 -125.97 ARCHER HIM-8 23.7

[euro6208]

Why is there no recon in the West Pacific?

Probably budget issues. We did have recon for 43 years from 1944 to 1987.

Truly a loss in meteorology. I can't imagine what they would have found in Goni and other past dozens of typhoons.

[Weatherboi1023]

just wondering what's the current ACE of GONI?

19.4775 units as of 12Z.

thanks!
WPAC trying to catch up with Atlantic's ACE.

Any storm chasers chasing this?

James Reynolds and Josh Morgerman couldn't make it to the Philippines because of the ongoing pandemic. Wow talk about some lost records.

I'd probably chase it also if there's no pandemic - I've been to Bicol several times (including Catanduanes). IMO, Bicol region (except Catanduanes) is a more chase friendly location than the East coast of the Northern and Central Part of Luzon.


Rant: Philippine weather observation network system sucks - most sensors and instruments are not active or they give inaccurate readings and it's common to see "no data available". We always need to rely with private entity for these weather obs.
Anyway, some ordinary people who owns higher tear smartphone with pressure sensors can record the barometric pressure of Goni (off course if they are aware of this functionality and they know how to calibrate their device) - most iphones have barometers, even the flagships of Samsung and Chinese smartphone makers (Xiaomi and One Plus) contains pressure sensor.

I will try to post baromteric pressure readings from my watch tomorrow. Am located in Makati City, Metro Manila.

[aspen]

Goni is still going SW and looks like it’s gonna hit Catanduanes Island within 10 hours.

[mrbagyo]

Why is there no recon in the West Pacific?

Probably budget issues. We did have recon for 43 years from 1944 to 1987.

Truly a loss in meteorology. I can't imagine what they would have found in Goni and other past dozens of typhoons.

Prohibition of foreign military bases in the Philippine Constitution of 1987 also likely played a major role. Subic and Clark are huge Military assets in Philippines that the US need to protect during their stay here.

[NotoSans]

I don't think Goni has strengthened. The eye has struggled to clear out (eye temperature remains in OW range), which indicates some VWS impact is going on.

That said, expect objective aids to show an increase in intensity, because as the core enlarges after ERC, they would be more capable of resolving it. ADT, for example, would handle the system better because its algorithm used to "average out" cloud top temperature would work well.

[mrbagyo]

[aspen]

If Goni’s CDG remains for the next several hours and that eye gets a little warmer, I think there’s a reasonable chance of the JTWC bumping it back up to 160-165 kt.

[NotoSans]

Why is there no recon in the West Pacific?

Sorry if this is too political but JTWC after all is part of the US military so it is not that it can deploy planes as it wishes.

Of course, other metrological organisations in WPAC can conduct recon, and in fact they have done so occasionally, but I don't think their planes are equipped with tools like SFMR, etc.