WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
lol
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
If that eye clears out... This will challenge Haiyan and Meranti for the strongest landfall in world history...
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1900hurricane
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Half a degree would be 55.56 km, just for reference.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
1540z eye temp should come in somewhere between 15-18*C with a -83*C CDO. RAW T should reflect a 7.9-8.0 for these data... i'd think
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Weather Dude wrote:If that eye clears out... This will challenge Haiyan and Meranti for the strongest landfall in world history...
If that 170 kt reading from SMAP is right, Goni absolutely will.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Goni is the reincarnation of this storm from 25 years ago
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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
aspen wrote:Weather Dude wrote:If that eye clears out... This will challenge Haiyan and Meranti for the strongest landfall in world history...
If that 170 kt reading from SMAP is right, Goni absolutely will.
Does the JTWC even use the SMAP? Because if they did, I would think they would have gone higher than 155kts... I think Goni is at 165-170kts right now and if that eye clears out and it gets T8.0 I'd give it the ultimate intensity of 175kts which is what I think Haiyan was personally, but I doubt JTWC will go with 175... They didn't even give it to Haiyan
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Sat Oct 31, 2020 11:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Typhoon Durian's 320 kph wind gust record is in jeopardy
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Weather Dude wrote:aspen wrote:Weather Dude wrote:If that eye clears out... This will challenge Haiyan and Meranti for the strongest landfall in world history...
If that 170 kt reading from SMAP is right, Goni absolutely will.
Does the JTWC even use the SMAP? Because if they did, I would think they would have gone higher than 155kts... I think Goni is at 165-170kts right now and if that eye clears out and it gets T8.0 I'd give it the ultimate intensity of 175kts which is what I think Haiyan was personally
Post seasonal analysis they may upgrade it to 165-170 knots based off some of those data. It's clearly an upper-echelon storm
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Wow UKMET initialized it as 884 mb, the lowest I've seen not even Hagibis or Halong came to this or even a sub 900 mb init.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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doomhaMwx
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Weather Dude wrote:aspen wrote:Weather Dude wrote:If that eye clears out... This will challenge Haiyan and Meranti for the strongest landfall in world history...
If that 170 kt reading from SMAP is right, Goni absolutely will.
Does the JTWC even use the SMAP? ...
Have seen them mention SMAP in their prognostic reasonings before.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Hayabusa wrote:Wow UKMET initialized it as 884 mb, the lowest I've seen not even Hagibis or Halong came to this or even a sub 900 mb init.
https://i.imgur.com/T1JFPGL.png
6z GFS had the same initialization, HWRF will be telling.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
2020OCT31 154000 7.7 902.5 161.0 7.7 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.39 -82.83 EYE 12 IR 54.0 13.88 -125.51 ARCHER HIM-8 23.9
Last edited by Hayabusa on Sat Oct 31, 2020 11:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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Yellow Evan
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Honestly a pretty clear T8.0 on our hands. Not ready to believe it's more than 170 knots though since it's eye isn't super circular and warm throughout yet.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
Hayabusa wrote::double:2020OCT31 154000 7.7 902.5 161.0 7.7 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.39 -82.83 EYE 12 IR 54.0 13.88 -125.51 ARCHER HIM-8 23.9
Halong numbers... Which they went with 165kts in post season for Halong. Could we get that operational here? If so it'd be the first since Meranti
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
101.22 temperature difference holy moly
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
The warming of the eye, the increasing ADT numbers, and the solid CDG ring is probably enough to get the JTWC to bring Goni back up to 160 kt at 18z. It might be enough for a rare 165-170 kt operational intensity. Despite the questionable 125 kt intensity estimate the other day, the JTWC has surprisingly been doing a solid job with Goni.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon
aspen wrote:The warming of the eye, the increasing ADT numbers, and the solid CDG ring is probably enough to get the JTWC to bring Goni back up to 160 kt at 18z. It might be enough for a rare 165-170 kt operational intensity. Despite the questionable 125 kt intensity estimate the other day, the JTWC has surprisingly been doing a solid job with Goni.
18Z is the last chance for an operational upgrade as it looks like it's going to make landfall in Catanduanes soon, unless it makes a more south west dip that completely misses it, even if it misses I still think 18Z is the perfect time to upgrade.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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