ATL: ETA - Models

[cp79]

HWRF landfall in Nicaragua heading inland. I wouldn’t get too “excited“ about the GFS into Florida unless more good models show it. Inland into CA looks likely.

https://i.postimg.cc/3JpBF8Y7/hwrf-mslp-wind-96-L-fh60-87.gif

Yup. Still think this is most likely solution and then the mountains will crush it.

[SFLcane]

[gatorcane]

Euro dives SW into Honduras/Nicaragua again. The model is very consistent with this.

Bump

[cp79]

Euro and UK both with similar solutions into CA. Feeling safer here in Fla. but still need to keep an eye on it.

[Blown Away]

Euro dives SW into Honduras/Nicaragua again. The model is very consistent with this.

https://i.postimg.cc/25vrzBfM/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-72.gif

If the Euro is leaning to GFS it should start some kind of loop SE at @96 hours. GFS doing a loop just off Honduras coast in the @72-96 hour timeframe.

[gatorcane]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/pTbBvtCy/20-DF0537-15-CA-4-C9-A-B5-CA-40686-F6-C29-C8.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/DzbcRzqt/DA2-A88-AF-D627-471-F-8007-AECD28-EC0-BC6.jpg

I remember a similar map with Zeta. The place to be with the GFS is 7+ days out. The chance of it nailing the forecast is slim to none.

[Shell Mound]

HWRF landfall in Nicaragua heading inland. I wouldn’t get too excited about the GFS into Florida unless more good models show it. Inland into CA looks likely.

https://i.postimg.cc/3JpBF8Y7/hwrf-mslp-wind-96-L-fh60-87.gif

Agree, but the 12z was a full degree N and model has trended N a bit the last few runs.

Plus, the system is crawling toward land at that point. The ECMWF shows the system being absorbed by the CAG, which seems quite unrealistic. A strong system briefly making landfall while stalling or even executing a counter-clockwise loop seems more plausible than a system that tracks well inland over the mountainous interior of Central America. Taken together, the dynamical models may be slowly converging on a solution that takes a powerful and intensifying 96L (Eta) briefly ashore while stalling and/or looping, shortly before reemerging over the Gulf of Honduras and quickly reorganising again as it tracks toward Cuba and/or Florida.

[TallahasseeMan]

Probably gonna need the models to pick up on a closed circulation before we’ll be able to resolve the Euro/GFS split


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[Jr0d]

12z GFS goes all-out regarding US impact. Landfalls in Florida, then goes through the entire east coast: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and now Maryland & Delaware at 270 hours. And might I add that Zeta is still 970 mbar at 270 hours, a full day after landfall.

I just don’t know if the steering is there for a Fla landfall to happen. I’m not saying it can’t happen, but if it were to get picked up, I would think it would move more NE, not N. Or WNw and then NW if HP got a hold of it. But maybe they see something I don’t so we’ll see. Like I said, too early in the game to take any model seriously past 96 hrs. The Euro will be interesting in an hour.

All this said, there is a growing and concerning trend for it clipping CA and staying alive and drifting N. Getting closer to 50/50 of that happening.

You said a Florida landfall was .00001% yesterday. Florida was never safe from this, even though it was looking good yesterday. The Florida Peninsula has been extremely lucky for a long time. Even with Irma, had it not took a trip to Cuba, the Florida Keys would have likely had a cat 5 with many communities wiped out like Mexico Beach.

Sooner or later that luck will run out. Hopefully later...

With the Canadian now showing the north turn, we really have to watch this and be prepared.

Also, this board will likely be hyperactive again with the Weather Channel and others showing a possible Florida strike on their tropical updates.

Monday's model runs will have thw recon data inputted, this should give us a much more accurate forecast. It is going to be a busy week, no doubt.

[cp79]

Scenario that I think is more likely than Eta moving north is this thing splitting and Theta forming. The mountains could break this system and energy could pull part of it north. I am assuming the storm would get a new name but the Euro has been on this solution for several runs now and I bet it does it with 12z.

[Spacecoast]

HWRF landfall in Nicaragua heading inland. I wouldn’t get too “excited“ about the GFS into Florida unless more good models show it. Inland into CA looks likely.

https://i.postimg.cc/3JpBF8Y7/hwrf-mslp-wind-96-L-fh60-87.gif

Yup. Still think this is most likely solution and then the mountains will crush it.

Clearly, there are two camps.. GFS/GFS-P/GEFS are seeing something @72-96 hrs that others are not.

[cp79]

12z GFS goes all-out regarding US impact. Landfalls in Florida, then goes through the entire east coast: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and now Maryland & Delaware at 270 hours. And might I add that Zeta is still 970 mbar at 270 hours, a full day after landfall.

I just don’t know if the steering is there for a Fla landfall to happen. I’m not saying it can’t happen, but if it were to get picked up, I would think it would move more NE, not N. Or WNw and then NW if HP got a hold of it. But maybe they see something I don’t so we’ll see. Like I said, too early in the game to take any model seriously past 96 hrs. The Euro will be interesting in an hour.

All this said, there is a growing and concerning trend for it clipping CA and staying alive and drifting N. Getting closer to 50/50 of that happening.

You said a Florida landfall was .00001% yesterday. Florida was never safe from this, even though it was looking good yesterday. The Florida Peninsula has been extremely lucky for a long time. Even with Irma, had it not took a trip to Cuba, the Florida Keys would have likely had a cat 5 with many communities wiped out like Mexico Beach.

Sooner or later that luck will run out. Hopefully later...

With the Canadian now showing the north turn, we really have to watch this and be prepared.

Also, this board will likely be hyperactive again with the Weather Channel and others showing a possible Florida strike on their tropical updates.

Monday's model runs will have thw recon data inputted, this should give us a much more accurate forecast. It is going to be a busy week, no doubt.

Part of that was said because the people I disagree with here were, and still are, getting on my nerves, but the other part is I don’t think this is a Fla system and still don’t. In reality I’ve always felt it’s around 1-5% chance. But a piece could break off and head N towards Fla. That scenario I think is more possible and the Euro is on board with it appears. But ETA itself is going into mountains and it won’t survive them.

[gatorcane]

Scenario that I think is more likely than Eta moving north is this thing splitting and Theta forming. The mountains could break this system and energy could pull part of it north. I am assuming the storm would get a new name but the Euro has been on this solution for several runs now and I bet it does it with 12z.

The piece breaking off is possible. Euro 120 hours has 96l into the EPAC with a piece breaking off in the NW Carib. Or maybe the piece is just the disturbed weather near the Lesser Antilles currently.

[Blown Away]

GFS spends like 2.5 days drifting around the NE coast of CA, GFS has a history of mid range historic stalls which usually don’t happen. Euro showing its L bias diving SW deep into CA which seems extreme to. Unfortunately for CA a strong hurricane going inland far enough to dissipate while dropping historic rainfall in the mountains looking like likely solution ATM.

[NDG]

Euro dives SW into Honduras/Nicaragua again. The model is very consistent with this.

https://i.postimg.cc/25vrzBfM/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-72.gif

What doesn't make sense is that it keeps forecasting it to go into the EPAC and for another system to form in the Caribbean side of C.A., it doesn't make any sense. I have never seen that before.
Is either one or the other.

[Shell Mound]

GFS spends like 2.5 days drifting around the NE coast of CA, GFS has a history of mid range historic stalls which don’t usually happen. Euro showing its L bias diving SW deep into CA which seems extreme to. Unfortunately for CA a strong hurricane going inland far enough to dissipate while dropping historic rainfall in the mountains looking like likely solution ATM.

Virtually all the models agree that 96L (Eta) will be crawling as it nears and makes landfall on Central America. A stall and loop over the coast is synoptically plausible. I am looking at real-time conditions as well as projected ones, and the data indicate, to me at least, that this possibility is very much “on the table,” so to speak, at this point in time. (As for “casting wishes,” just ask toad strangler and CyclonicFury about my traditional anti-Florida bias on this forum. )

[TallahasseeMan]

12z GFS goes all-out regarding US impact. Landfalls in Florida, then goes through the entire east coast: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and now Maryland & Delaware at 270 hours. And might I add that Zeta is still 970 mbar at 270 hours, a full day after landfall.

I just don’t know if the steering is there for a Fla landfall to happen. I’m not saying it can’t happen, but if it were to get picked up, I would think it would move more NE, not N. Or WNw and then NW if HP got a hold of it. But maybe they see something I don’t so we’ll see. Like I said, too early in the game to take any model seriously past 96 hrs. The Euro will be interesting in an hour.

All this said, there is a growing and concerning trend for it clipping CA and staying alive and drifting N. Getting closer to 50/50 of that happening.

You said a Florida landfall was .00001% yesterday. Florida was never safe from this, even though it was looking good yesterday. The Florida Peninsula has been extremely lucky for a long time. Even with Irma, had it not took a trip to Cuba, the Florida Keys would have likely had a cat 5 with many communities wiped out like Mexico Beach.

Sooner or later that luck will run out. Hopefully later...

With the Canadian now showing the north turn, we really have to watch this and be prepared.

Also, this board will likely be hyperactive again with the Weather Channel and others showing a possible Florida strike on their tropical updates.

Monday's model runs will have thw recon data inputted, this should give us a much more accurate forecast. It is going to be a busy week, no doubt.

I don’t think it’s fair to go too hard on people for making predictions, it’s what makes this board interesting to read.


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[Shell Mound]

Regardless of what transpires, given the magnitude of what may be evolving, this “battle of the models” will likely go down in S2K history. As in all time.

[cp79]

Scenario that I think is more likely than Eta moving north is this thing splitting and Theta forming. The mountains could break this system and energy could pull part of it north. I am assuming the storm would get a new name but the Euro has been on this solution for several runs now and I bet it does it with 12z.

The piece breaking off is possible. Euro 120 hours has 96l into the EPAC with a piece breaking off in the NW Carib. Or maybe the piece is just the disturbed weather near the Lesser Antilles currently.

https://i.postimg.cc/KcnXRywk/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-120.gif

They’ve been on this solution for a while now and I’m starting to buy it a little. I think their reasoning is the core is going to get stuck in those big mountains and the rest of the energy will pull North and maybe NE. I’ve never seen it happen but it would be interesting to see as long as it pulls to the ENE and out to sea.

[northjaxpro]

Scenario that I think is more likely than Eta moving north is this thing splitting and Theta forming. The mountains could break this system and energy could pull part of it north. I am assuming the storm would get a new name but the Euro has been on this solution for several runs now and I bet it does it with 12z.

The piece breaking off is possible. Euro 120 hours has 96l into the EPAC with a piece breaking off in the NW Carib. Or maybe the piece is just the disturbed weather near the Lesser Antilles currently.

https://i.postimg.cc/KcnXRywk/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-120.gif

Back on Thursday, I mentioned tha the GFS was showing a very intrigiing signifcant energy/vorticity lagging a bit behind Eta. It is possible that area back toward the Lesser Antilles could indeed be a player down the road. Time will tell.