WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

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Highteeld
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#781 Postby Highteeld » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:04 pm

euro6208 wrote:
Highteeld wrote:I would peg Goni at 175 knots, along with Angela from 1995. Haiyan I believe was at 185 knots, and Patricia around 180 knots


Oh man Patricia got eally lucky she had recon flown into her out of all places the epac. Wow.

These typhoons are incredible.

Yeah. Meranti is another one that could have hit 170 knots, but I don't think it was quite as strong as Goni is right now.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#782 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:05 pm

Highteeld wrote:I would peg Goni at 175 knots, along with Angela from 1995. Haiyan I believe was at 185 knots, and Patricia around 180 knots

I would probably say Patricia 185kts, Haiyan 180-185 kts, Goni 175kts, haven't studied Angela that much but it's up there too. Gay 1992 is as well
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#783 Postby Highteeld » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:06 pm

PAGASA declared super typhoon
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#784 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:07 pm

So what major population center looks to be ground zero from this typhoon?!
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#785 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:07 pm

RADAR loop - 46 frames

via rainviewer.com

Image
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#786 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:10 pm

That radar presentation is insane.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#787 Postby Highteeld » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:13 pm

2020OCT31 184000 7.8 899.3 164.0 7.8 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.72 -82.75 EYE 17 IR 54.0 13.71 -124.80 ARCHER HIM-8 24.4
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#788 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:14 pm

If recon was in there, around 175 to 185 knots and a pressure in the 860's. Just insane.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#789 Postby ejeraldmc » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:18 pm

I wonder if the people of Catanduanes even know they're at TCWS#5.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#790 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:20 pm

galaxy401 wrote:So what major population center looks to be ground zero from this typhoon?!


Literally the whole island province of Catanduanes with a pop of over 270,000 could get the eyewall of the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone in the world.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#791 Postby TorSkk » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:22 pm

Since when does SAB use 7.0 for CDG embedded eyes?


TXPQ22 KNES 311859
TCSWNP

A. 22W (GONI)

B. 31/1730Z

C. 13.8N

D. 125.0E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T8.0/8.0

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. WMG
EYE IS SURROUNDED BY CDG AND EMBEDDED IN CDG RESULTING IN A DT OF 8.0
AFTER 1.0 IS ADDED FOR THE EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE 8.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#792 Postby Cunxi Huang » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:22 pm

Brutal.

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#793 Postby Highteeld » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:22 pm

TorSkk wrote:Since when does SAB use 7.0 for CDG embedded eyes?


TXPQ22 KNES 311859
TCSWNP

A. 22W (GONI)

B. 31/1730Z

C. 13.8N

D. 125.0E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T8.0/8.0

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. WMG
EYE IS SURROUNDED BY CDG AND EMBEDDED IN CDG RESULTING IN A DT OF 8.0
AFTER 1.0 IS ADDED FOR THE EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE 8.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

I think it was improvised during Haiyan's run in 2013
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#794 Postby NotoSans » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:23 pm

:uarrow: 2015, after Haiyan. The first TC which the cdg rule applies is Pam 2015.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#795 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:26 pm


It’s as symmetrically serpentine as a chambered nautilus, mesmerising, with a clear, pure portal in the very centre. A deadly work of art, of Nature and her Designer.

This serpent’s fang is “six in a supercell.” Unfortunately, it will likely prove as decisively destructive as serpent’s venom: delivered in one swift strike of lightning.
Last edited by Shell Mound on Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#796 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:29 pm

What happened with Virac RPUV (98446)? it stopped reporting
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#797 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:29 pm

The awaited graphic
Image
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#798 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:32 pm

Hayabusa wrote:The awaited graphic
Image


ah poop, that's directly over my place, immediate north of lake Taal
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#799 Postby NotoSans » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:34 pm

mrbagyo wrote:What happened with Virac RPUV (98446)? it stopped reporting

The latest figure at 19Z is 991.1hPa? I can see it.
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Re: WPAC: GONI - Typhoon

#800 Postby Meteophile » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:35 pm

I would estimate its intensity between 870 and 890mb and its 1m sustained winds between 170 and 185kts. The gap comes from the uncertainty of the eyes' Temps.


If the eye was in the 18°C range without the shallow cloud mess, I'd give 885 to 890mb and 170 to 175kts. Actually, the Temps could be even worse as the small spaces between mesovortices suggest (18+°C by 1px on few frames). I read it managed to reach +26°C at its first peak, so if I still doubt it kept such Temps, I think it could easily have had a +104°C differential if we could have got higher resolution images.

I'm still waiting for more elements to analyse it further.
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