ATL: ETA - Models

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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models

#361 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:01 pm

18z GFS is caving to the Euro, surprise surprise! :wink:
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models

#362 Postby caneseddy » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:05 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:18z GFS is caving to the Euro, surprise surprise! :wink:


Actually it barely gets inland and then starts doing a loop just offshore as some others have stated
Last edited by caneseddy on Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models

#363 Postby MJGarrison » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:05 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:18z GFS is caving to the Euro, surprise surprise! :wink:

As both models regress to the mean, I would not call that caving. There are a larger range of possibilities than major strike on FL and fully destroyed by CA.


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cp79

Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models

#364 Postby cp79 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:08 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:18z GFS is caving to the Euro, surprise surprise! :wink:


Seems that way. It does try to keep it alive but keeps it weak 4 days out.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models

#365 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:11 pm

cp79 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:18z GFS is caving to the Euro, surprise surprise! :wink:


Seems that way. It does try to keep it alive but keeps it weak 4 days out.

Much weaker too compared to previous runs.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models

#366 Postby Loveweather12 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:14 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
cp79 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:18z GFS is caving to the Euro, surprise surprise! :wink:


Seems that way. It does try to keep it alive but keeps it weak 4 days out.

Much weaker too compared to previous runs.


I know you both want to get brownie points but from what I’m seeing from other sources, it’s not a cave. Now the next days will be important. The forecast is uncertain as the “National Hurricane Center” has pointed out.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models

#367 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:14 pm

GFS has consistently shown a broad and sloppy system, and it’s lacking direct data from TD29. It could be a much tighter TC like the HWRF has been predicting. We won’t know until tomorrow afternoon’s recon mission.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models

#368 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:16 pm

Intensifying and coming north.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models

#369 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:21 pm

Loveweather12 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
cp79 wrote:
Seems that way. It does try to keep it alive but keeps it weak 4 days out.

Much weaker too compared to previous runs.


I know you both want to get brownie points but from what I’m seeing from other sources, it’s not a cave. Now the next days will be important. The forecast is uncertain as the “National Hurricane Center” has pointed out.

In fact, this latest run doesn’t even take TD Twenty-Nine (Eta) farther inland from the coast than several miles at most. It avoids all the mountains before turning.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models

#370 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:22 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models

#371 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:23 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:18z GFS is caving to the Euro, surprise surprise! :wink:

No, it doesn’t.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models

#372 Postby Nuno » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:24 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:18z GFS is caving to the Euro, surprise surprise! :wink:


Spoke too soon, surprise surprise :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models

#373 Postby cp79 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:25 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:18z GFS is caving to the Euro, surprise surprise! :wink:

No, it doesn’t.


It “kinda” does. Only difference is Euro breaks system apart. But then both send it off NE, presumably out to sea which is where I think it’ll end up. ICON kills it. This thing will either die or go out to sea.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models

#374 Postby Spacecoast » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:31 pm

Hasn't the NHC been watching the GFS runs?
They seem to be south of everyone at landfall for some reason.
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Last edited by Spacecoast on Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models

#375 Postby toad strangler » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:33 pm

That is in no way a cave to the Euro.
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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models

#376 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:37 pm

Why don’t we just censor anything the GFS shows after 5-6 days? :lol:
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models

#377 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:38 pm

toad strangler wrote:That is in no way a cave to the Euro.

Well it’s definitely trending more inline with it. Keeps it weak and sloppy through days 5-6. After that is pure GFS fantasyland!
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models

#378 Postby MJGarrison » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:42 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
toad strangler wrote:That is in no way a cave to the Euro.

Well it’s definitely trending more inline with it. Keeps it weak and sloppy through days 5-6. After that is pure GFS fantasyland!

Agreed. Not a cave. Just closer to the mean.


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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models

#379 Postby Spacecoast » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:49 pm

18z ICON goes through Nicaragua to EPAC...
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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models

#380 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:51 pm

Tropical Tidbits is down for some reason. :roll:

The GFS (Give Florida Something) probably broke it! :lol:
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