TheStormExpert wrote:Tropical Tidbits is down for some reason.
Working fine for me with some all new colors and features.
ATL: ETA - Models
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models
Working fine for me with some all new colors and features.
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Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
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northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models
There are going to be so many twists and curves with the models folks. My my what a week of "As The Model Runs Turns"....
Stay tuned.....
Stay tuned.....
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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TheStormExpert
Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Tropical Tidbits is down for some reason.
Working fine for me with some all new colors and features.
Saw the new features, they look great! Still not working, may just be where I’m at.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models
18z HWRF has Hurricane Eta in 24 hours and a compact Cat 2/3 in 42 hours. It’s been very consistent with a tight circulation; recon will confirm whether it’s right or not.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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HurricaneBelle
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models
The "foe" function would work a lot better if people didn't keep quoting the "foes", just saying.
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TallahasseeMan
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models
18Z HMON brings it onshore at 5:00 PM compared to around 11:00 AM on the 12Z.
18Z HWRF about 9mb deeper compared to 12Z through 48hrs.
18Z HWRF about 9mb deeper compared to 12Z through 48hrs.
Last edited by TallahasseeMan on Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models
Does the NHC even take this into consideration?
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models
Man this GFS Run just lives over Cuba
3 Days later
Is that just some heavy duty ridging?
3 Days later
Is that just some heavy duty ridging?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models
Blown Away wrote:
Does the NHC even take this into consideration?
I’ve heard them mention it in discussions before
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models
18z GFS in the mid range was a slow cave to a bury into CA. I expect 00z to continue the SW adjustment into a full CA landfall.
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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models
HWRF has not budged from its pinhole Cat 4 solution.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models
The experts have low confidence in any of the models beyond 3 days and are awaiting future runs.
After a storm weakens and unwinds over land sometimes they redevelop like Mitch did in 1998 but that is in the long range fantasyland beyond any kind of certainty. Probably reemerge off Belize rather than the Bay of Campeche if it happened at all though.
After a storm weakens and unwinds over land sometimes they redevelop like Mitch did in 1998 but that is in the long range fantasyland beyond any kind of certainty. Probably reemerge off Belize rather than the Bay of Campeche if it happened at all though.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models
TheProfessor wrote:cp79 wrote:TheProfessor wrote:
It's not -removed- when there's actual evidence and support towards a solution. The GFS, GEFS, and CMC all support some kind of northward or northwest movement after the southern dive within the next 4-5 days, which isn't fantasy land. It's a legit scenario and depends on the strength of the system and timing of that shortwave trough over Louisiana. If it's earlier and or stronger it could very well prevent a CA landfall. The same goes for a stronger 29 and possibly feeling that weakness. What happens after that has many different ranges, but it's nonsense to chalk up these GFS runs as -removed- when they synoptic setup very well could allow for something similar and when there's currently ensemble support.
I don’t want to get into any fights. But it’s -removed- when people take 1 run run out of 100 that’s more than 7 days out and start drawing attention to Florida and how it’s time to panic. Like seriously. Relax. Let’s just focus on the next 3-4 days. That’s all I’m saying.
It hasn't been one run though, it's been 5 runs with GEFS support.
The CMC and GFS para both show similar solutions and the Euro shows some kind of weak system heading that way but staying east
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models
18z NAVGEM into the northern coast of Honduras and then North riding up the coast of eastern Yuc.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020103118&fh=54
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020103118&fh=54
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Spacecoast
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models
18z Spaghetti (courtesy of Tropical Atlantic)...
Euro, & it's ensembles not shown
*many are previous late cycle runs
(white is consensus of all shown)
Same (with model labels)
APxx are GEFS members, AC00 is GEFS control. AVNO is Operational, AEMI is GEFS ensamble mean
Euro, & it's ensembles not shown
*many are previous late cycle runs
(white is consensus of all shown)
Same (with model labels)
APxx are GEFS members, AC00 is GEFS control. AVNO is Operational, AEMI is GEFS ensamble mean
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models
Spacecoast wrote:18z Spaghetti (courtesy of Tropical Atlantic)...
Euro, & it's ensembles not shown
*many are previous late cycle runs
(white is consensus of all shown)
https://i.ibb.co/pn8M5cr/Capture10031-G.jpg
Same (with model labels)
APxx are GEFS members, AC00 is GEFS control. AVNO is Operational, AEMI is GEFS ensamble mean
https://i.ibb.co/v1z8pyK/Capture10031-H.jpg
What color is AEMI? I see the words but I can’t tell which piece of spaghetti it is.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: TWENTY-NINE - Models
Forecasts that keep the center over CA must concern those countries after the 1998 Mitch disaster. It's still early.
P.S. I'm guessing per tradition the NHC will not rely on "spaghettios" because of it's appearance - can you imagine their showing that mess to the public? IMO there's now too much information out there - similar to the days of a few tornado chasers to the past few years where there are so many they cause traffic problems. The NHC has always preferred a "smoothed" amount of data to make it as easy for the public to understand as possible.
Too much information is just as bad as not enough...
P.S. I'm guessing per tradition the NHC will not rely on "spaghettios" because of it's appearance - can you imagine their showing that mess to the public? IMO there's now too much information out there - similar to the days of a few tornado chasers to the past few years where there are so many they cause traffic problems. The NHC has always preferred a "smoothed" amount of data to make it as easy for the public to understand as possible.
Too much information is just as bad as not enough...
Last edited by Frank2 on Sat Oct 31, 2020 7:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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