ATL: ETA - Models

[Spacecoast]

18z Spaghetti (courtesy of Tropical Atlantic)...
Euro, & it's ensembles not shown
*many are previous late cycle runs
(white is consensus of all shown)
https://i.ibb.co/pn8M5cr/Capture10031-G.jpg

Same (with model labels)
APxx are GEFS members, AC00 is GEFS control. AVNO is Operational, AEMI is GEFS ensamble mean
https://i.ibb.co/v1z8pyK/Capture10031-H.jpg

What color is AEMI? I see the words but I can’t tell which piece of spaghetti it is.

Dark green, SW of Cayman Islands.
visit here for interactive site (pretty cool site, IMHO,with lots of info, inclding error tracking) :
http://tropicalatlantic.com/

[CyclonicFury]

The GFS nailed the genesis of this one way out in fantasy land. You have to give the GFS credit for that.

[LarryWx]

18Z HWRF goes inland into CA:

https://i.postimg.cc/ZRMfTN93/hwrf-ref-29-L-fh3-90.gif

The 18Z HWRF track is very similar to the 12Z and 0Z, going well inland more or less paralleling the Honduras/Nicaragua border moving WSW. The 6Z was a southern outlier.

Meanwhile, the 18Z Euro, which goes out to only hour 90, is almost identical to its 12Z run.

[edu2703]

18z HMON recurves over NE Honduras and seems to make a 2nd landfall in Belize

[Nimbus]

The GFS nailed the genesis of this one way out in fantasy land. You have to give the GFS credit for that.

We should know if there is going to be much leftover monsoonal energy in the Caribbean which would validate the current GFS scenario within 42 hours. A stronger tighter system is going to produce a lot of shear with its inflow for any competing system. Princess HWRF may be exaggerating the pressure drop down in the 940's, but once that unwinds over land beyond 5 days or so we get a second chance to look at the Caribbean environment.

[aspen]

The GFS nailed the genesis of this one way out in fantasy land. You have to give the GFS credit for that.

It also predicted Gamma, Delta, and Zeta around 7-16 days out. It’s like it’s trying to redeem itself for completely failing to form Hanna.

[gatorcane]

18z NAVGEM into the northern coast of Honduras and then North riding up the coast of eastern Yuc.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2020103118&fh=54

You can go out farther on fnmoc site. Armageddon with a mammoth hurricane for South Florida but it is the NAVGEM

[Blown Away]

-removed- is defined by the act of interpreting information or a situation in a way that casts it as favorable or desired. I think some here interpret -removed- as only wanting a strong hurricane to pass over a populated area and cause a lot of damage despite the official forecast shows otherwise. The opposite can also be clearly defined as -removed-

I think certain forum members seriously lack impartiality in model analysis when models shows a storm hitting their state or hometown and is always the same ones. This kind of attitude basically kills any chance of having a civilized discussion. NHC says there is a low confidence in track forecast due to a divergence in the models starting after 48 hours, so, there are several possibile outcomes for this storm even in short term. At this point, to say what this storm will or won't do in long run or saying that place X is safe is extremely premature. A lot can change in the coming days.

I hear you, but no Florida folks are -removed-, Storm2k is very lucky to have the folks your accusing of -removed- on this board because many of us from Florida provide interesting and informative info on all storms. I think Florida folks get unfairly accused of only caring about Florida when many of us spend time preparing posts with informative graphics, model runs, and opinions regardless of where the storm is going. The Florida folks you think are -removed- you will find involved in pretty much every storm this season. I will say that nearly all the Louisiana members are non existent when it doesn’t effect Louisiana. Sorry for the rant.

[cp79]

It's not -removed- when there's actual evidence and support towards a solution. The GFS, GEFS, and CMC all support some kind of northward or northwest movement after the southern dive within the next 4-5 days, which isn't fantasy land. It's a legit scenario and depends on the strength of the system and timing of that shortwave trough over Louisiana. If it's earlier and or stronger it could very well prevent a CA landfall. The same goes for a stronger 29 and possibly feeling that weakness. What happens after that has many different ranges, but it's nonsense to chalk up these GFS runs as -removed- when they synoptic setup very well could allow for something similar and when there's currently ensemble support.

I don’t want to get into any fights. But it’s -removed- when people take 1 run run out of 100 that’s more than 7 days out and start drawing attention to Florida and how it’s time to panic. Like seriously. Relax. Let’s just focus on the next 3-4 days. That’s all I’m saying.

It hasn't been one run though, it's been 5 runs with GEFS support.

I understand. I apologize. I didn’t mean to sound mean or anything. I just want to talk weather. I just get a little jumpy when talking so far out and taking it too seriously. I like to focus more on the short. I’m really interested in this system and am really looking forward what comes of it.
.

[SFLcane]

[cp79]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/PrcpXdhd/E890-F46-E-5488-43-F2-8-A30-CCC6-C9820-A44.jpg

A lot of these models taking to SFl are gonna depend on steering and timing. I really think it’s too early to gauge because for it to hit Fla, a perfect storm of dominos would have to fall. There will be a Trough followed by a HP and then another trough. How far those dig and where they are positioned are just really hard to estimate thus far out. First things first is you need to see if it will survive CA.

[gatorcane]

00Z guidance, most models deep into CA, NHC track (OFCI) on the south side by a bit:

[Blown Away]

00Z guidance, most models deep into CA, NHC track (OFCI) on the south side by a bit:

https://i.postimg.cc/43q1hg5H/29-L-tracks-00z.png

The NHC is the southern outlier on the 00z early guidance.

[gatorcane]

GFS trend last 5 runs, Further west into CA trend:

[aspen]

GFS trend last 5 runs, Further west into CA trend:

https://i.postimg.cc/VvBTR6GV/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh60-trend.gif

I won’t really care about trends until we have a better idea on how strong Eta becomes and how quickly. Levi said that a stronger storm could be slower and result in a stall over water or just barely on the CA coast, and that the broader monsoonal flow will have an impact as well (and maybe try to form Theta down the line). It’s a very complicated track that should hopefully become clearer once recon goes in tomorrow, determining the rate of intensification, internal structure, and exact direction/speed of Eta.

[gatorcane]

12Z COAMPS into CA and emerging back over after but weak:

[cheezyWXguy]

This -removed- debate is so useless. We need to be honest with ourselves and each other about the uncertainty of the situation and consider all possibilities laid out. This is degrading to the objectivity in analysis the majority of the members of this board strive for.

[fci]

Sorry people I disagree with...but the 18z Happy Hour GFS is a pipe dream
. It’s not happening lol.

You work for the NHC? Are you an expert that has access to info that we don’t that says a storm isn’t happening?
No one is -removed-. People are being real & showing outcomes for all model runs.

Come on. People are -removed-. It’s so obvious.

As for 28, key is really the interaction with land. I don’t think we can rally forecast past that. We have to see what CA does to it and then reset from there. Let’s focus on the next few days, not 6-7 days out.

You need to stop.
In the past S2K suspended users for using that term.
Perhaps you take it out of your forum vocabulary.

[Blown Away]

This -removed- debate is so useless. We need to be honest with ourselves and each other about the uncertainty of the situation and consider all possibilities laid out. This is degrading to the objectivity in analysis the majority of the members of this board strive for.

I agree, but if your on this board a lot there are many shots taken at Florida posters for being people I disagree with, when those folks provide posts on nearly all the storms. CA is in the bullseye for a potential hurricane stalling along the coast creating tremendous rainfall/landslides in those mountains, we all know that and are concerned, but talking about what may happen after that is not -removed-.

[blp]

You work for the NHC? Are you an expert that has access to info that we don’t that says a storm isn’t happening?
No one is -removed-. People are being real & showing outcomes for all model runs.

Come on. People are -removed-. It’s so obvious.

As for 28, key is really the interaction with land. I don’t think we can rally forecast past that. We have to see what CA does to it and then reset from there. Let’s focus on the next few days, not 6-7 days out.

You need to stop.
In the past S2K suspended users for using that term.
Perhaps you take it out of your forum vocabulary.

Agreed, people on this board are free to express their opinions and ideas as long as we are respectful. After all we are all ametuers and are not required to provide objectivity like if we are scientists. Using the term -removed- just like downcasting can be interpreted as a way of silencing one's opinion. If you don't like someone's opinion you can block them and move on.