ATL: ETA - Models

[TheStormExpert]

06z GFS with its weakest run yet post Central America.

[Shell Mound]

The IR simulation on the GFS and CMC show a weakened and sheared system as it approaches Cuba and Florida. They both have ETA losing a significant of strength over Hondorus, then struggle to regain organization as it moves northeast.

If ETA somehow manages to avoid significant land interaction, I suppose a stronger storm will emerge but may have to battle shear and dry air.

Still a lot of uncertainty. We really need that recon data for the model inputs.

By day three the 06Z GFS shows Eta crawling ashore, then suddenly “jumping” well inland. That seems like convective feedback to me, especially given Zeta is likely to be a powerful system, intensifying as it nears Central America while slowing considerably. It is more likely that a strong Zeta would stall along the Honduran–Nicaraguan coastline or even execute a counterclockwise loop before reemerging over water. Yet some models show Zeta suddenly and unrealistically accelerating and heading inland after nearly stalling on the coastline while subject to weak steering currents all the while. I don’t buy that “inland” solution, personally.

[Shell Mound]

06Z HWRF coming much further East. Doesn't even make it to Central America.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/772421960742207518/hwrf_ref_29L_fh24-54.gif

Stalls then starts crawling East

By day two (forty-eight) hours the 06Z HWRF shows major hurricane Zeta nearly stalling just offshore of Central America, then suddenly accelerating westward well inland over the mountains. I’m sorry, but looking at the mid- to upper-level steering, I don’t see how Zeta would suddenly speed up and head well inland after nearly stalling along the coastline or just offshore. There just aren’t any strong steering currents to take Zeta so far inland. Climatology would support a stall and slow northward drift/turn either on the coast or just offshore, not a slowdown followed by massive acceleration to the west. Also, even the HWRF might be too conservative with the intensity over the next two days, given current convective trends and the extremely conducive environment already emergent. All this would tend to favour a stronger and slower system overcoming its contenders for the foreseeable future.

Anyway, for Central America’s sake, I really hope this somehow stays just offshore and thereby prevents a repeat of Mitch ‘98 or even worse.

[MJGarrison]

I didn’t really think about it until this morning, but in the US we got out of Daylight Savings Time last night...so the Euro appears to run an hour earlier.

Here is the 6Z Euro




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[aspen]

HWRF is weaker (~960 mbar instead of 940s), but it still shows a pinhole eye, and it tries to stall Eta just off of the coast or barely on it.

[jlauderdal]

00z gfs-p brings a hurricane across SFL and into the GOM.

https://i.postimg.cc/ZYxkQdyN/31-EA432-F-83-A3-4068-A6-E9-DC1-D314-E8128.jpg

there will always be a model someplace that plows a hurricane into south Florida...seen this movie for over 20 years

[Shell Mound]

I didn’t really think about it until this morning, but in the US we got out of Daylight Savings Time last night...so the Euro appears to run an hour earlier.

Here is the 6Z Euro

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201101/d7d797218ad120f6d1c9cc5ad21d3c68.gif

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Why does the ridge axis over the Rio Grande Valley strengthen massively on this run? There are shortwave impulses rotating southward over FL the whole time.

So we have the GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF showing Eta nearly stalling along the coast, then massively speeding up and heading well inland under weak steering.

These inland solutions are both unrealistic and terrifying, boding ill prospects for Central America. I’d take a worst case in the U.S. over one in Central America.

A system that surpasses Mitch is the last thing anyone needs.

[NDG]

I didn’t really think about it until this morning, but in the US we got out of Daylight Savings Time last night...so the Euro appears to run an hour earlier.

Here is the 6Z Euro

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20201101/d7d797218ad120f6d1c9cc5ad21d3c68.gif


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Nice thing about going back to standard time, we in the eastern time zone don't have to stay up so late to catch the models' runs

[TheStormExpert]

The 06z GFS might be onto something with its weak sheared solutions beyond Central America.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1322884208361177090




Even the 00z Euro shows a sheared/hybrid system when it nears Florida.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanemanwx/status/1322873160316891136

[NDG]

here comes the turn tcvn now north the nhc.

https://i.postimg.cc/Y9dMFL7T/C0-BAE7-BE-A647-467-A-8-C7-F-4-DD8819-D64-E5.jpg

And I would expect the TVCN to continue with trend more north and east in the 72-120 hr range as the Euro continues little by little get closer to the GFS's & HWRF solutions.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1322887817845002240




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1322889055076450304

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1322887817845002240

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1322889055076450304

Clearly, the strongest members in the short term also show the earliest slowdown, stall, and/or northward turn. Short-term intensity is crucial as well.

[NDG]

06z Euro continues its trend in slowing Eta down before making landfall in Nica, now shows landfall at 6 PM CST on Tuesday.

[cjrciadt]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1322887817845002240

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1322889055076450304

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ElvW8DoWMAYSNcn?format=jpg&name=large
Clearly, the strongest members in the short term also show the earliest slowdown, stall, and/or northward turn. Short-term intensity is crucial as well.

So basically a Cat 1 before 80W equals uh oh

[TheStormExpert]

06z Euro is SW of the 00z run too.

[Blown Away]

12z TVCN now offshore moving NNE @120 hours. TVCN continues to show a sharper N turn and now appears to be missing the big mountains inland and moving over flatter CA.

[NDG]

:uarrow: 06z Euro is SW of the 00z run too.

The 0z Euro had landfall just about the same spot, just a few more miles north, but 12 hrs faster with landfall than the 06z run. The 0z Euro also had it progressing more westward, the 06 ends further east at 90 hrs than the 0z run.

[SFLcane]

12z TVCN now offshore moving NNE @120 hours. TVCN continues to show a sharper N turn and now appears to be missing the big islands inland and moving over flatter CA.

Yikes! Sharp hook now

[NDG]

06z Euro ensembles are still split in half.

[Blown Away]

12z TVCN now offshore moving NNE @120 hours. TVCN continues to show a sharper N turn and now appears to be missing the big mountains inland and moving over flatter CA.

Yikes! Sharp hook now