WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

Land interaction and the shear has really taken a toll on Goni. Look at the mid-level circulation race out over the South China Sea.

[Highteeld]

Looks really bad in some areas (Warning, disturbing content). Damn mudslides...

















 https://twitter.com/engrmars_uaena/status/1322789838190387201

[wxman57]

Land interaction and the shear has really taken a toll on Goni. Look at the mid-level circulation race out over the South China Sea.

https://i.imgur.com/3IgGDw3.gif

I'm trying to locate the LLC. JMA has it near Manila 2 hrs ago.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has reports from PH about if there were fatalities? Hopefully there are only a few or better none.

[euro6208]

There have been alot of reports and videos but so far NONE from Catanduanes which experience the strongest cyclone landfall in world history.

[1900hurricane]

Land interaction and the shear has really taken a toll on Goni. Look at the mid-level circulation race out over the South China Sea.

https://i.imgur.com/3IgGDw3.gif

I'm trying to locate the LLC. JMA has it near Manila 2 hrs ago.

The combination of the loss of surface obs and some of the terrain effects is definitely making it difficult. Using Band 7 SWIR (3.7 um) though, the JMA (and JTWC) 12Z positions look reasonable to me. There's a lot of convective debris, but there is definitely cyclonic turning beneath some of that. Looks to me to be centered between Manilla and the western tip of Mindoro by the end of the below loop. This thing is absolutely savaged though.

[doomhaMwx]

Massive storm surge flooding in Cagbibi, Camarines Sur during Goni.

https://www.facebook.com/10000018249270 ... 914008618/

[euro6208]

How strong do you think Goni really was at its peak? I can imagine that if recon in the area existed they would have found a 880s mbar intensity, Goni's sat images were absolutely crazy. Certainly one of the most 'perfect' looking storms since Haiyan.

Could have peaked at 190 knot actually. Remember before this landfall, it went through a first peak with peak of 185-190 knots.

This second peak landfalling in Catanduanes likely was 175 to 180 knots.

[euro6208]

Does anyone has reports from PH about if there were fatalities? Hopefully there are only a few or better none.

So far 4 deaths but Catanduanes the hardest hit hasn't been surveyed yet.

[euro6208]

22W
As of 12:00 UTC Nov 01, 2020:

Location: 14.1°N 121.2°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 990 mb



Very near Manila.

[ElectricStorm]

How strong do you think Goni really was at its peak? I can imagine that if recon in the area existed they would have found a 880s mbar intensity, Goni's sat images were absolutely crazy. Certainly one of the most 'perfect' looking storms since Haiyan.

Could have peaked at 190 knot actually. Remember before this landfall, it went through a first peak with peak of 185-190 knots.

This second peak landfalling in Catanduanes likely was 175 to 180 knots.

You tend to overdo storms quite a bit. While it was an absolutely insane storm, it could have even been 175kts, with 180 at the absolute highest... No way it was 190kts though.

[aspen]

How strong do you think Goni really was at its peak? I can imagine that if recon in the area existed they would have found a 880s mbar intensity, Goni's sat images were absolutely crazy. Certainly one of the most 'perfect' looking storms since Haiyan.

Could have peaked at 190 knot actually. Remember before this landfall, it went through a first peak with peak of 185-190 knots.

This second peak landfalling in Catanduanes likely was 175 to 180 knots.

You tend to overdo storms quite a bit. While it was an absolutely insane storm, it could have even been 175kts, with 180 at the absolute highest... No way it was 190kts though.

At its landfall peak, definitely not over 175 kt...but perhaps the night before it was, when it went pinhole with a CDG ring. ADT was able to find eye temps of 20C, so perhaps the eye was actually a little warmer. Goni could’ve been on-par with something like Hagibis or Patricia with that satellite appearance.

[wxman57]

If the center was near Manila at 12Z then it's mid-level circulation and all squalls were about 250 miles west, half way across the South China Sea to Vietnam.

[euro6208]

How strong do you think Goni really was at its peak? I can imagine that if recon in the area existed they would have found a 880s mbar intensity, Goni's sat images were absolutely crazy. Certainly one of the most 'perfect' looking storms since Haiyan.

Could have peaked at 190 knot actually. Remember before this landfall, it went through a first peak with peak of 185-190 knots.

This second peak landfalling in Catanduanes likely was 175 to 180 knots.

You tend to overdo storms quite a bit. While it was an absolutely insane storm, it could have even been 175kts, with 180 at the absolute highest... No way it was 190kts though.

Look at the previous peak. Satellite estimates/Objective aids couldn't even resolve the small core and structure.

[phwxenthusiast]

So do we have any confirmed and reliable wind/pressure reports along the path??

Seems like Virac went down very early.. there was a good gust from Legazpi but it's still a ways off from the eye.. Daet had a 260kph gust at one point but that seems very suspect.

[Ed_2001]

So far the images that are closest to ground zero are in Gigmoto, and the wind damage there are far heavier than in Viga immediately to the north. The shredded palms and completely defoliated trees suggests that winds were at least in the mid cat 4's or greater there. I think Gigmoto came into the edge of the eyewall but may not have experienced Maximum winds. Still no reports further south from Virac, Bato or Baras, the latter two probably received the absolute strongest winds Goni had to offer.

[ElectricStorm]

Obviously there's nothing good about having a world record strongest landfall, but at least Goni fell apart at near Patricia levels after landfall so the damage further inland and near Manila hopefully isn't as bad as it could have been. And it won't be as bad for Vietnam, who's also has a really tough season

[qscdefb]

Obviously there's nothing good about having a world record strongest landfall, but at least Goni fell apart at near Patricia levels after landfall so the damage further inland and near Manila hopefully isn't as bad as it could have been. And it won't be as bad for Vietnam, who's also has a really tough season

Indeed, because of land, small size, and high wind shear, Goni may hold the record for quickest 24-hour weakening anywhere in the NW Pacific, no matter by JTWC’s or JMA’s estimates.

On a related note, PAGASA’s No.4 warning for Manila is really anticlimactic, I hope the people there won’t turn complacent when a big one comes there way...

[Ed_2001]

Still not much info out of Catanbuanes, this is only for the Northern tip of the island (Pandan) so effects will only get worse the more south you go. Only 1 confirmed fatality so far, but of course any death is a tragedy. Hoping for the best, now that the sun is rising and the weather has cleared more info might come out today I'm guessing.
 https://twitter.com/AlertsPea/status/1323031565388013569

[wxman57]

Good scatterometer of Goni at 21Z. Looks like max winds 20-25 kts in the poorly-defined center with no squalls anywhere near it. About 25 kts for Atsani to the east.