ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Shell Mound]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/772418292295663646/20201101.png

Here we go

I think this could easily become a high-end Category-4 hurricane within the next forty-eight hours, given the small, nascent core and excellent outflow. That would certainly put a proverbial “monkey wrench” in the modelled solutions that show Eta accelerating (no, I’m not kidding) inland over the mountainous interior of Central America, after slowing and nearly stalling just before and around the time of landfall. All the reliable models and the NHC are in excellent agreement as to the slowdown and possible stall just before and during landfall, but everything diverges afterward. Personally, given the very weak steering currents being modelled, along with the influence of climatology, I just don’t see how a very powerful hurricane under weak steering currents would suddenly speed up and head well inland after nearly stalling along the coast or just offshore.

[Blown Away]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/772418292295663646/20201101.png

Here we go

I think this could easily become a high-end Category-4 hurricane within the next forty-eight hours, given the small, nascent core and excellent outflow. That would certainly put a proverbial “monkey wrench” in the modelled solutions that show Eta accelerating (no, I’m not kidding) inland over the mountainous interior of Central America, after slowing and nearly stalling just before and around the time of landfall. All the reliable models and the NHC are in excellent agreement as to the slowdown and possible stall just before and during landfall, but everything diverges afterward. Personally, given the very weak steering currents being modelled, along with the influence of climatology, I just don’t see how a very powerful hurricane under weak steering currents would suddenly speed up and head well inland after nearly stalling along the coast or just offshore.

Good point, almost all stalling is followed by an abrupt change in direction as many ensembles show a N turn. The NHC track slows/stalls then continues the W movement into CA. The 06z TVCN shows a N turn well inland CA, but it has trended N with each model run.

[aspen]

Based on the microwave pass Keldeo posted and the current vis/IR imagery, it does seem that, like what the HWRF has been forecasting for days, Eta has developed a small and compact core. We’ve seen plenty of times this year that these micro-core systems can spin up and spin down very quickly; Delta is an excellent example of both. In Eta’s case, it’s very concerning because the environment is quite favorable — SSTs anywhere between 28.5-30.0C, moderate to high OHC, ample moisture all along its path, and very light winds aloft. The HWRF’s forecast of a Cat 3/4 before landfall could become true. However, I believe Aric said a stronger storm would be less likely to make landfall; hopefully that means unexpected ERI of Eta would keep it further from CA and thus reduce not just wind impacts, but rain impacts as well.

[Blown Away]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/772418292295663646/20201101.png

Here we go

I think this could easily become a high-end Category-4 hurricane within the next forty-eight hours, given the small, nascent core and excellent outflow. That would certainly put a proverbial “monkey wrench” in the modelled solutions that show Eta accelerating (no, I’m not kidding) inland over the mountainous interior of Central America, after slowing and nearly stalling just before and around the time of landfall. All the reliable models and the NHC are in excellent agreement as to the slowdown and possible stall just before and during landfall, but everything diverges afterward. Personally, given the very weak steering currents being modelled, along with the influence of climatology, I just don’t see how a very powerful hurricane under weak steering currents would suddenly speed up and head well inland after nearly stalling along the coast or just offshore.

Good point, almost all stalling is followed by an abrupt change in direction as many ensembles show a N turn. The NHC track slows/stalls then continues the W movement into CA. The 06z TVCN shows a N turn well inland CA, but it has trended N with each model run leaving the OFCL as the S outlier.

[NDG]

All the power in this season has occurred during the second half of the season. Everything was weak and sheared and now everything is strong....

Started out producing tropical storms and now it produces powerful hurricanes. One after another!

The effects of the moderate to strong La Niña are now dominating in the Atlantic.

Also, record breaking SAL outbreaks kept the season at bay during the first half.

[Weatherboy1]

Big jump N and E in TVCN at 12Z over at Tropical Tidbits site. I expect the 120 hr plot point at 10 am is going to be shifted offshore or very close to it as HWRF/HMON also showing turn more N at end of their runs

[jlauderdal]

Big jump N and E in TVCN at 12Z over at Tropical Tidbits site. I expect the 120 hr plot point at 10 am is going to be shifted offshore or very close to it as HWRF/HMON also showing turn more N at end of their runs

Nhc lives the tvcn-PSA

[CourierPR]

Big jump N and E in TVCN at 12Z over at Tropical Tidbits site. I expect the 120 hr plot point at 10 am is going to be shifted offshore or very close to it as HWRF/HMON also showing turn more N at end of their runs

Nhc lives the tvcn-PSA

This morning the meteorologist on NBC6 Miami talked about having to watch Eta closely next weekend and that it could be close to South Florida. This weather team is normally very measured in their wording and not given to scare tactics.

[SFLcane]

Big jump N and E in TVCN at 12Z over at Tropical Tidbits site. I expect the 120 hr plot point at 10 am is going to be shifted offshore or very close to it as HWRF/HMON also showing turn more N at end of their runs

Indeed they follow as usual the consensus model very closely. Very interesting it’s now showing a sharp hook NE as of 12z.

[jlauderdal]

Big jump N and E in TVCN at 12Z over at Tropical Tidbits site. I expect the 120 hr plot point at 10 am is going to be shifted offshore or very close to it as HWRF/HMON also showing turn more N at end of their runs

Nhc lives the tvcn-PSA

This morning the meteorologist on NBC6 Miami talked about having to watch Eta closely next weekend and that it could be close to South Florida. This weather team is normally very measured in their wording and not given to scare tactics.

If john morales at nbc 6 gets concerned, check your supplies immdieately

[tiger_deF]

For the first time Eta is looking like a decent tropical cyclone, banding is quickly setting up around the system, deep convection is over the center, and the rotation appears to be picking up speed

[kevin]

First visible loop of the day:

[cjrciadt]

First visible loop of the day:

https://imgur.com/Ppdozdf

55kts 992mb my guess atm

[Blown Away]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/E ... _with_line

NHC keeps bumping their track a little N and E each update. They continue to be S of the TVCN.

[NDG]

As of a couple of hours ago it seems that the low and mid level circulation are still not stacked, but now that it has started to slow down stacking should begin and so will its intensification.

[NDG]

MLC is very impressive, once stacking starts it will take off.

[aspen]

Recon leaves in a few hours and will arrive a few more after that. By then, I think they could find a much stronger system, due to being nearly stacked and very compact — probably something around 50-65 kt and 990-995 mbar.

[TheStormExpert]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/ETA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

NHC keeps bumping their track a little N and E each update. They continue to be S of the TVCN.

10am NHC track shifted south.

[aspen]

A large hot tower just blew up over the center. I have a feeling Eta is getting close to RI, and that hot tower might be a sign that the MLC/LLC are getting stacked.

[Sanibel]

Bursting towers and doing the fist...(Itching to intensify)...

Elongated as it bumps in to the ridge that will drive it SW...