ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

I didn't know the advisory times didn't change with daylight savings, but it makes sense to stay on Zulu time I guess.

[tolakram]

I didn't know the advisory times didn't change with daylight savings, but it makes sense to stay on Zulu time I guess.

The advisory time didn't change, we did.

Live visible loop https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis/meso1_60.html

source https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html

[N2FSU]

NHC not biting on the NE shift of TVCN, for now at least.


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[Jr0d]

NHC not biting on the NE shift of TVCN, for now at least.


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They may be waiting for the Recon data to be added to the models. Perhaps the extra data will pick up something and will change.

I do not expect them to shift the track north until tomorrow, if of course the models are still trening north then northeast for Eta.

[wxman57]

Recon data won't help the models with the long-range track. It's the broad-scale flow across the Gulf and southern U.S. that will affect Eta long-term. Consensus is now consistent in either moving Eta back into the NW Caribbean Thursday or the formation of a new center there (as Levi suggested last evening). Unfortunately, we may be dealing with Eta for quite a while.

[Sanibel]

The Tropical Tidbits (Levi Cowan) forecast is complex...

It will be interesting to see which of the two options will pan out...

If the new system scenario pans out that cyclone will set a record for the most active Atlantic season...

[Hurricaneman]

I'm seeing a similar track to Gordon 1994 but 250 miles farther west at Cuba northward so this could be one of those zig zag tracks that give forecasters headaches

[us89]

The Tropical Tidbits (Levi Cowan) forecast is complex...

It will be interesting to see which of the two options will pan out...

If the new system scenario pans out that cyclone will set a record for the most active Atlantic season...

From what I've seen of the model runs, it looks like some versions of that scenario could also send Eta into the EPac and give us our first basin crosser since Otto.

[aspen]

NOAA2 is en route to Eta. It has just passed the Keys and should arrive in a few hours.

[NDG]

[Aric Dunn]

One hurricane Eta coming right up..

[NDG]

Yet another miss by ASCAT. One of these storms that keeps running ahead of the satellite's orbit's timing but as it starts slowing down the ASCAT will finally catch up to it, if not tonight by tomorrow morning.

[wxman57]

Big change in 12z GFS. Weak TS north of Jamaica next Sunday afternoon vs. hurricane over south Florida. I like that run better.

[BYG Jacob]

Recon data won't help the models with the long-range track. It's the broad-scale flow across the Gulf and southern U.S. that will affect Eta long-term. Consensus is now consistent in either moving Eta back into the NW Caribbean Thursday or the formation of a new center there (as Levi suggested last evening). Unfortunately, we may be dealing with Eta for quite a while.

You forecasters this year
[youtube]https://youtu.be/HKtsdZs9LJo[/youtube]

[Shell Mound]

Big change in 12z GFS. Weak TS north of Jamaica next Sunday afternoon vs. hurricane over south Florida. I like that run better.

I don’t. It means Eta would interact more with CA and set the stage for a worse disaster than Mitch. Florida and Cuba would be better equipped to handle that.

(Not insinuating anything bad about your intentions, but I care about locations outside the mainland U.S. as well as within. No one needs a Mitch 2.0 or worse.)

Addendum: that 12Z GFS run actually shows Eta stalling over the shoreline of northeastern Nicaragua. So future runs may well show the turn occurring there.

[aspen]

At this rate, recon should arrive at Eta around 12:45-1:00pm EST.

[Shell Mound]

MLC is very impressive, once stacking starts it will take off.

https://i.imgur.com/wYYSvxg.gif

Based on the excellent thermodynamic and synoptic profile(s), along with the nascent inner core, once this stacks I expect a high-end Cat-4+ within two days.

Other than the tilted structure, everything else about this system’s profile signifies RI or even ERI within the next day and a half, at the very latest. Watch it.

[MJGarrison]

What are the variables we are watching for with recon this afternoon? Intensity and its track implications? Is center location well understood?


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[Frank2]

Hoping the system will make a quick CA cross-over into the EPAC and prevent Mitch-type flooding. With a 1035 mb high forecast to be centered over the South its hard to imagine it doing anything else. As our pro-met said the 12z GFS is showing a weaker system moving north - my guess after 6 runs the model is basing this more on current data and less on climatology.

[Shell Mound]

Hoping the system will make a quick CA cross-over into the EPAC and prevent Mitch-type flooding. With a 1035 mb high forecast to be centered over the South it’s hard to imagine it doing anything else. As our pro-met said the 12z GFS is showing a weaker system moving north - my guess after 6 runs the model is basing this more on current data and less on climatology.

Synoptically speaking, those two outcomes are mutually exclusive and diametrically opposed. Models have shifted decisively away from a rapid crossover. Also, if the system were to cross over into the EPAC, there wouldn’t even be “a (much) weaker system moving north.” Only a stalled Eta emergent from CA would yield the GFS’s solution, as far as I can see. Anyway, that latest GFS run, for the first time, actually shows Eta stalling over the coast of northeastern Nicaragua in two days, which strongly suggests that successive runs may show the turn occurring along the coast rather than inland over the mountains. We’ll see.