ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Big change in 12z GFS. Weak TS north of Jamaica next Sunday afternoon vs. hurricane over south Florida. I like that run better.

What about the flooding disaster in CA!?

[Ian2401]

Raw T-Value just shot up to 3.7

[Shell Mound]

Raw T-Value just shot up to 3.7

This is probably the first time we should actually hope for ERI in a storm nearing land, for Central America’s sake, as a deeper, slower system would turn earlier.

[underthwx]

Very interesting Forecast Discussion from NWS Miami, ETA definitely needs to be watched carefully...

[Aric Dunn]

As it appears Eta will be a hurricane days before any of the models show ( likely from the lack of data)

we should see a uptick in models/members not making landfall and just stalling/rotating around then moving north.

[Shell Mound]

As it appears Eta will be a hurricane days before any of the models show ( likely from the lack of data)

we should see a uptick in models/members not making landfall and just stalling/rotating around then moving north.

Aric, major kudos to you for calling this from the start. The 12Z HWRF now shows Cat-3/-4 Eta stalling and looping counterclockwise off Cabo Gracias a Dios.

Edit: major news! The 12Z HWRF officially shows Eta turning north well east of the Nicaraguan–Honduran border by day two! Much stronger, too!

[Blown Away]

Eta seems to be pulling together quickly and maybe gaining a little latitude?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[us89]

Huge area of -80C cloud tops with this latest round of convective bursts. Quite symmetric too.

I'll be very interested to see what recon finds. I'm guessing a mid strength TS - maybe 50 mph.

[NDG]

Hoping the system will make a quick CA cross-over into the EPAC and prevent Mitch-type flooding. With a 1035 mb high forecast to be centered over the South its hard to imagine it doing anything else. As our pro-met said the 12z GFS is showing a weaker system moving north - my guess after 6 runs the model is basing this more on current data and less on climatology.

A 1035 mb surface high only influnces shallow weak tropical systems.

[underthwx]

Alot of what I am reading this morning concerning ETA....is suggesting a growing cause for concern to Florida ..I say this very cautiously, however, it is there in black and white on many news agencies, and private weather videos...it's my understanding that any potential impacts to Florida, are days away, if at all ...I, of course hope this will not happen, but now is a good time to review hurricane plans, while there is ample time to do so....

[Nimbus]

12Z HWRF climbs from 15 to 16N while dropping to 936 mb's at 60 hours.
Will the other models follow?

[Aric Dunn]

12Z HWRF climbs from 15 to 16N while dropping to 936 mb's at 60 hours.
Will the other models follow?

most likely. as they all initialize a weak system and keep it weak ...

it clearly is not weak..

[Shell Mound]

12Z HWRF climbs from 15 to 16N while dropping to 936 mb's at 60 hours.
Will the other models follow?

Given current trends, upper-air conditions, and the starkest TCHP/OHC in the basin, this has a non-zero chance to beat the 1932 Cuba hurricane as the strongest November TC in the Atlantic basin on record and rival or exceed Wilma, if not Patricia, as the strongest TC in the Western Hemisphere. If the HWRF solution were to be even remotely close to the outcome, this scenario would certainly be “on the table,” at the very least. Eta would be drifting and/or moving slowly over the western Caribbean, under pristine atmospheric conditions, over the shallowest thermocline in the Atlantic basin, with extremely warm and deep TCHP/OHC. Not to mention the potential for extremely prolific ACE generation...

[CyclonicFury]

12Z HWRF climbs from 15 to 16N while dropping to 936 mb's at 60 hours.
Will the other models follow?

Given current trends, upper-air conditions, and the starkest TCHP/OHC in the basin, this has a non-zero chance to beat the 1932 Cuba hurricane as the strongest November TC in the Atlantic basin on record and rival or exceed Wilma, if not Patricia, as the strongest TC in the Western Hemisphere. If the HWRF solution were to be even remotely close to the outcome, this scenario would certainly be “on the table,” at the very least. Eta would be drifting and/or moving slowly over the western Caribbean, under pristine atmospheric conditions, over the shallowest thermocline in the Atlantic basin, with extremely warm and deep TCHP/OHC. Not to mention the potential for extremely prolific ACE generation...

That's extreme.

[Shell Mound]

12Z HWRF climbs from 15 to 16N while dropping to 936 mb's at 60 hours.
Will the other models follow?

Given current trends, upper-air conditions, and the starkest TCHP/OHC in the basin, this has a non-zero chance to beat the 1932 Cuba hurricane as the strongest November TC in the Atlantic basin on record and rival or exceed Wilma, if not Patricia, as the strongest TC in the Western Hemisphere. If the HWRF solution were to be even remotely close to the outcome, this scenario would certainly be “on the table,” at the very least. Eta would be drifting and/or moving slowly over the western Caribbean, under pristine atmospheric conditions, over the shallowest thermocline in the Atlantic basin, with extremely warm and deep TCHP/OHC. Not to mention the potential for extremely prolific ACE generation...

That's extreme.

Yes, it is extreme, but it’s the “ceiling” in this case, however improbable. Everything, to me, indicates that the “ceiling” for Eta is far from typical.

This could be the storm that some of us expected Delta to become, intensity-wise. To my knowledge, I’m often more conservative, but this stands out.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not yet at the center and SFMR is up to 45 knots.

[aspen]

12Z HWRF climbs from 15 to 16N while dropping to 936 mb's at 60 hours.
Will the other models follow?

Given current trends, upper-air conditions, and the starkest TCHP/OHC in the basin, this has a non-zero chance to beat the 1932 Cuba hurricane as the strongest November TC in the Atlantic basin on record and rival or exceed Wilma, if not Patricia, as the strongest TC in the Western Hemisphere. If the HWRF solution were to be even remotely close to the outcome, this scenario would certainly be “on the table,” at the very least. Eta would be drifting and/or moving slowly over the western Caribbean, under pristine atmospheric conditions, over the shallowest thermocline in the Atlantic basin, with extremely warm and deep TCHP/OHC. Not to mention the potential for extremely prolific ACE generation...

Sub-900 mbar is only a possibility if Eta manages to stay offshore like the 12z HWRF, which there is no guarantee of. It all depends on how strong Eta gets within the next 36-48 hours, which will determine when it slows down.

[us89]

12Z HWRF climbs from 15 to 16N while dropping to 936 mb's at 60 hours.
Will the other models follow?

Given current trends, upper-air conditions, and the starkest TCHP/OHC in the basin, this has a non-zero chance to beat the 1932 Cuba hurricane as the strongest November TC in the Atlantic basin on record and rival or exceed Wilma, if not Patricia, as the strongest TC in the Western Hemisphere. If the HWRF solution were to be even remotely close to the outcome, this scenario would certainly be “on the table,” at the very least. Eta would be drifting and/or moving slowly over the western Caribbean, under pristine atmospheric conditions, over the shallowest thermocline in the Atlantic basin, with extremely warm and deep TCHP/OHC. Not to mention the potential for extremely prolific ACE generation...

Let's not get ahead of ourselves just yet...

A strong or very strong storm is certainly not out of the question, but I don't ever want to make comparisons to hurricanes like Wilma or Patricia until we actually get there. At this point that's just hype.

[cycloneye]

LOCATION...14.9N 78.1W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[cheezyWXguy]

Given current trends, upper-air conditions, and the starkest TCHP/OHC in the basin, this has a non-zero chance to beat the 1932 Cuba hurricane as the strongest November TC in the Atlantic basin on record and rival or exceed Wilma, if not Patricia, as the strongest TC in the Western Hemisphere. If the HWRF solution were to be even remotely close to the outcome, this scenario would certainly be “on the table,” at the very least. Eta would be drifting and/or moving slowly over the western Caribbean, under pristine atmospheric conditions, over the shallowest thermocline in the Atlantic basin, with extremely warm and deep TCHP/OHC. Not to mention the potential for extremely prolific ACE generation...

That's extreme.

Yes, it is extreme, but it’s the “ceiling” in this case, however improbable. Everything, to me, indicates that the “ceiling” for Eta is far from typical.

This could be the storm that some of us expected Delta to become, intensity-wise. To my knowledge, I’m often more conservative, but this stands out.

I hate to say it, but I am inclined to agree with you on the potential ceiling. If it takes the HWRF’s path, that’s a lot of extra time over water and much less land interaction in general. Given the small core it forecasts within a very large moisture envelope, it would seem Eta has the potential to avoid the environmental vulnerability Delta experienced with a more confined and asymmetrical envelope. The main thing that could lower that ceiling would be eyewall cycles, which the HWRF clearly forecasts before CA landfall

Edit: to clarify, I don’t think the ceiling is as high as Wilma or Patricia, but 1932 Cuba is probably the upper bound.