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cycloneye wrote:LOCATION...14.9N 78.1W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
Shell Mound wrote:wxman57 wrote:Big change in 12z GFS. Weak TS north of Jamaica next Sunday afternoon vs. hurricane over south Florida. I like that run better.
I don’t. It means Eta would interact more with CA and set the stage for a worse disaster than Mitch. Florida and Cuba would be better equipped to handle that.
(Not insinuating anything bad about your intentions, but I care about locations outside the mainland U.S. as well as within. No one needs a Mitch 2.0 or worse.)
Addendum: that 12Z GFS run actually shows Eta stalling over the shoreline of northeastern Nicaragua. So future runs may well show the turn occurring there.
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Potentially rain contaminated but..
50 knots
(~ 57.5 mph)
wxman57 wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Potentially rain contaminated, but...
50 knots
(~ 57.5 mph)
With no more than 40-45 kts at flight level, winds aren't 50 kts at the surface.
Shell Mound wrote:Nimbus wrote:12Z HWRF climbs from 15 to 16N while dropping to 936 mb's at 60 hours.
Will the other models follow?
Given current trends, upper-air conditions, and the starkest TCHP/OHC in the basin, this has a non-zero chance to beat the 1932 Cuba hurricane as the strongest November TC in the Atlantic basin on record and rival or exceed Wilma, if not Patricia, as the strongest TC in the Western Hemisphere. If the HWRF solution were to be even remotely close to the outcome, this scenario would certainly be “on the table,” at the very least. Eta would be drifting and/or moving slowly over the western Caribbean, under pristine atmospheric conditions, over the shallowest thermocline in the Atlantic basin, with extremely warm and deep TCHP/OHC. Not to mention the potential for extremely prolific ACE generation...
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:992mb is nearly dead on with what the HWRF was predicting at this point in time.
wxman57 wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Potentially rain contaminated but..
50 knots
(~ 57.5 mph)
With no more than 40-45 kts at flight level, winds aren't 50 kts at the surface.
NDG wrote:wxman57 wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Potentially rain contaminated but..
50 knots
(~ 57.5 mph)
With no more than 40-45 kts at flight level, winds aren't 50 kts at the surface.
I am sure recon will find stronger winds than that in the northern quadrant with a pressure of 993mb, its pass was straight from the east.
https://i.imgur.com/7eMXnp7.png
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