ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#461 Postby Kazmit » Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:15 pm

South/west side looks much better compared to a few hours ago.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#462 Postby Blown Away » Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:17 pm

cycloneye wrote:
LOCATION...14.9N 78.1W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES



Good looking 50 mph TS. Seen Cat 1’s on satellite that don’t look as good as Eta now.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#463 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:21 pm

Potentially rain contaminated but..

50 knots
(~ 57.5 mph)
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#464 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:22 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Big change in 12z GFS. Weak TS north of Jamaica next Sunday afternoon vs. hurricane over south Florida. I like that run better.

I don’t. It means Eta would interact more with CA and set the stage for a worse disaster than Mitch. Florida and Cuba would be better equipped to handle that.

(Not insinuating anything bad about your intentions, but I care about locations outside the mainland U.S. as well as within. No one needs a Mitch 2.0 or worse.)

Addendum: that 12Z GFS run actually shows Eta stalling over the shoreline of northeastern Nicaragua. So future runs may well show the turn occurring there.


It was only the GFS that had it stalling offshore. NHC forecast was for it to move inland and dissipate. No difference in impacts there. Still a significant flood event for them.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#465 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:23 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Potentially rain contaminated but..

50 knots
(~ 57.5 mph)


With no more than 40-45 kts at flight level, winds aren't 50 kts at the surface.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#466 Postby underthwx » Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:24 pm

Looks like ETA will keep up the tradition of difficult storms to forecast this hurricane season, unbelievable...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#467 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:28 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Potentially rain contaminated, but...

50 knots
(~ 57.5 mph)

With no more than 40-45 kts at flight level, winds aren't 50 kts at the surface.

If I recall correctly, preliminary data have suggested that 10-m winds may rise faster than and even momentarily surpass FL winds during (E)RI. Yet I could be wrong.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#468 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:31 pm

Almost at the exact CoC.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#469 Postby Nuno » Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:37 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
Nimbus wrote:12Z HWRF climbs from 15 to 16N while dropping to 936 mb's at 60 hours.
Will the other models follow?

Given current trends, upper-air conditions, and the starkest TCHP/OHC in the basin, this has a non-zero chance to beat the 1932 Cuba hurricane as the strongest November TC in the Atlantic basin on record and rival or exceed Wilma, if not Patricia, as the strongest TC in the Western Hemisphere. If the HWRF solution were to be even remotely close to the outcome, this scenario would certainly be “on the table,” at the very least. Eta would be drifting and/or moving slowly over the western Caribbean, under pristine atmospheric conditions, over the shallowest thermocline in the Atlantic basin, with extremely warm and deep TCHP/OHC. Not to mention the potential for extremely prolific ACE generation...


Wilma or Patricia comparisons are pretty intense, Shell. I hope you're wrong but the short term HWRF runs have been pretty spot on so far.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#470 Postby kevin » Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:37 pm

Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure of 992.2 mbar measured by recon! Significantly deeper than NHC's current 1000 mbar.
Last edited by kevin on Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#471 Postby wx98 » Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:39 pm

50 mph seems to be a good estimate based on the current data.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#472 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:41 pm

The HWRF was right! Eta is indeed a tight core system. Unfortunately for CA, that means its RI forecasts are also right, at least to some extent.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#473 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:41 pm

992mb is nearly dead on with what the HWRF was predicting at this point in time.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#474 Postby skyline385 » Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:48 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:992mb is nearly dead on with what the HWRF was predicting at this point in time.


HWRF had strongest winds on NW side, lets see if that verifies too
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#475 Postby aspen » Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:51 pm

Shockingly low winds close to the center despite a tight core and a pressure in the low 990s....at least, low winds in the southern half of the storm. The northern half could be a far different story.

It shouldn’t be long before more hot towers fire over the CoC and really kick Eta into high gear.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#476 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:55 pm

Yeah, there are probably much stronger winds in the northern half of the inner core (especially NW side). Let's see if the pressure is in the midst of a rapid fall or the TC has just been underestimated for a while. Looks to be rapidly wrapping up on satellite.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#477 Postby NDG » Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:01 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#478 Postby NDG » Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Potentially rain contaminated but..

50 knots
(~ 57.5 mph)


With no more than 40-45 kts at flight level, winds aren't 50 kts at the surface.


I am sure recon will find stronger winds than that in the northern quadrant with a pressure of 993mb, its pass was straight from the east.

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#479 Postby edu2703 » Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:08 pm

First VDM reports the eyewall is 30 NM and open west to southwest
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#480 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:12 pm

NDG wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Potentially rain contaminated but..

50 knots
(~ 57.5 mph)


With no more than 40-45 kts at flight level, winds aren't 50 kts at the surface.


I am sure recon will find stronger winds than that in the northern quadrant with a pressure of 993mb, its pass was straight from the east.

https://i.imgur.com/7eMXnp7.png

Based on the latest data from reconnaissance, Eta seems to be tracking a bit faster than the 12Z HWRF predicted, though its intensity matches quite well. This suggests that the low-level ridging is stronger than expected, verifying closest to the EPS, yet Eta is still strengthening much faster than all guidance other than the HWRF indicated. Blending a stronger-than-forecast Eta with a stronger-than-forecast low-level ridge suggests that Eta is perhaps a bit more likely to make landfall on Central America than the HWRF indicates, but is still likely to stall farther east than the EPS indicates, that is, closer to the coast. I expect the NHC to adjust its positions northward on days three through five, but the track before then is likely to be quite close to verification. This implies that Eta is likely to stall along the Nicaraguan coast before turning northward toward the Gulf of Honduras.
Last edited by Shell Mound on Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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