ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[shah83]

Man, people must be absolutely exhausted. If this was Isaias' timeframe, how many pages would this thread be already? I'm pretty sure we had way more than 24 pages at this stage of Eta's journey!


Editing to say it was the 33rd page of invests before Isaias was a storm!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z ATCF up to 50 knots, MSLP 992mb.

[Nimbus]

Tight surface pressure profile early and we were expecting something in the Gulf of Honduras near the end of the official forecast track anyways. Maybe official track just ends up affecting the north coast of Honduras with upslope rain and flooding inland. Can't say I like the trend though, and we are still too far out to know where this goes from the Gulf of Honduras if its still a tight core system. Big model changes to watch there.

[MarioProtVI]

HWRF has shifted significantly and now takes Eta paralleling/just barely making landfall in northern Nicaragua then bounces back over the water to become a major again near Yucatan.

[underthwx]

Man, people must be absolutely exhausted. If this was Isaias' timeframe, how many pages would this thread be already? I'm pretty sure we had way more than 24 pages at this stage of Eta's journey!


Editing to say it was the 33rd page of invests before Isaias was a storm!

ETA's evolution in real time, shall lead to many pages on discussion thread, as well as the models thread...

[Blown Away]

If the stronger system goes more poleward like the HWRF is showing then Eta should begin gaining a few degrees of latitude starting soon.

[emeraldislenc]

It is looking so much better on satellite to me.

[Aric Dunn]

Two big towers in the SW and NE quad rotating around. pulse up phase and an eye should begin to clear out over the next 6 to 12 hours.

[aspen]

I’m surprised the eyewall is that big...but the HWRF has shown a large eyewall quickly contracting into a pinhole (<10 nm) over the next 12 hours or so.

[Shell Mound]

With no more than 40-45 kts at flight level, winds aren't 50 kts at the surface.

I am sure recon will find stronger winds than that in the northern quadrant with a pressure of 993mb, its pass was straight from the east.

https://i.imgur.com/7eMXnp7.png

Based on the latest data from reconnaissance, Eta seems to be tracking a bit faster than the 12Z HWRF predicted, though its intensity matches quite well. This suggests that the low-level ridging is stronger than expected, verifying closest to the EPS, yet Eta is still strengthening much faster than all guidance other than the HWRF indicated. Blending a stronger-than-forecast Eta with a stronger-than-forecast low-level ridge suggests that Eta is perhaps a bit more likely to make landfall on Central America than the HWRF indicates, but is still likely to stall farther east than the EPS indicates, that is, closer to the coast. I expect the NHC to adjust its positions northward on days three through five, but the track before then is likely to be quite close to verification. This implies that Eta is likely to stall along the Nicaraguan coast before turning northward toward the Gulf of Honduras.

Preliminary “forecast” based on all this:

1. Landfall over Cabo Gracias a Dios, ~12:00 UTC 3 November – 115 knots (Cat 4)
2. Curves WNW just inland, passing just SW of Laguna de Caratasca, along incline from S of Lempira → Ribra, Ahuas, and Punta Piedra
3. Enters Gulf of Honduras after passing over Punta Piedra (~12:00 UTC 5 November), turning sharply northward as it does so, heading for Yucatán Channel
4. Gradually curves NNE and NE as it enters the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, inclining toward the Tampa Bay Area
5. Landfall near Clearwater, Florida, ~12:00 UTC 9 November – 95 knots (Cat 2)
6. Path inland turns ENE, parallels I-4 corridor, traversing Greater Orlando, entering Atlantic over Edgewater, Florida

[Jr0d]

Man, people must be absolutely exhausted. If this was Isaias' timeframe, how many pages would this thread be already? I'm pretty sure we had way more than 24 pages at this stage of Eta's journey!


Editing to say it was the 33rd page of invests before Isaias was a storm!

If Florida is in the cone, activity will skyrocket on here.

As of now, most folks here in the Keys do not think it will threaten us.

[Aric Dunn]

55kts in NW quad.

North quad likely higher yet.


very close to a hurricane. and with large towers wrapping around it wont be long.

[GeneratorPower]

Man, people must be absolutely exhausted. If this was Isaias' timeframe, how many pages would this thread be already? I'm pretty sure we had way more than 24 pages at this stage of Eta's journey!


Editing to say it was the 33rd page of invests before Isaias was a storm!

In all seriousness we need to get through the election on Tuesday before this looks like a serious FL threat. Threat before then would seriously mess up the voting process.
If Florida is in the cone, activity will skyrocket on here.

As of now, most folks here in the Keys do not think it will threaten us.

[NDG]

55kts in NW quad.

North quad likely higher yet.


very close to a hurricane. and with large towers wrapping around it wont be long.

Yes I wouldn't doubt that they will find 60 knot winds in the northern quadrant.

[LarryWx]

Would a stronger storm tend to move on a further N/NE track? That's what several here are saying. If so, why? How does the forecasted steering change, if any, when going up higher in the atmosphere?

[Iceresistance]

18z ATCF up to 50 knots, MSLP 992mb.

FL winds of 55 knots

[supercane4867]

[ElectricStorm]

https://i.imgur.com/fhGfh4s.gif

Certainly looks to be taking off...

[supercane4867]

Impressive banding feature on all quadrants

[kevin]

https://i.imgur.com/fhGfh4s.gif

This has the looks of a soon to be hurricane.