ATL: ETA - Models

[SFLcane]

12z hwrf heading north and east. Oh boy!

[NDG]

Recon should find much stronger winds in the northern quadrant because of its quick westward heading.

[aspen]

12z hwrf heading north and east. Oh boy!

https://i.postimg.cc/5NyZvCk4/582662-D5-E27-D-4-ECB-9216-3-FA1-F88-EDCB0.png

If Eta plays out similarly to the 12z HWRF run, it’s going to be a strong problems for DAYS, with several chances for RI into a Cat 4 or higher. The run ends with a recovered system once again bombing out. Stalling away from the coast might not rule out a Mitch-like scenario, and it would also add more problems for more areas.

[NDG]

Dropsonde 993mb!!!!!!!!!!!!

[gatorcane]

Euro long-range:

[AutoPenalti]

I don’t care what anyone says, HWRF has been amazing this year.

[underthwx]

Euro long-range:

https://i.postimg.cc/mZNYJvQY/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh144-240.gif

Are there not other models that are similar to the Euro as well?...

[Cyclenall]

12Z UKMET: similar to NHC through landfall over Nicaragua though it never gets stronger than a low end cat 1 H per 994 mb pressure.

Current actual intensity is higher than the 12Z UKMET at peak . Its not this model's day.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Worth noting the UKMET/Euro are showing an unrealistically weak storm vs. the GFS/HWRF. That may be, in part, why the Euro are further to the left with this system.

[Spacecoast]

I don’t care what anyone says, HWRF has been amazing this year.

HWRF was good for Zeta, but OFCL, was a bit better...
Average Track Error (nautical miles):


Zeta Average Intensity Error (in knots)
HWRF
24hr: 7.7
48hr: 9.4
72hr: 15.7
96hr: 22.1
120hr: 32.1

[NDG]

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/LzZJDIv.png

It seems the Euro will have underestimated the strength of Eta in near term and nearly all those ensembles show a TD/weak TS at CA landfall. Wonder if this will have much influence over the operational track, Euro usually pretty solid within 72 hours and shows deep track into CA.

[LarryWx]

https://i.imgur.com/LzZJDIv.png

Looks to me like EPS is now ~ 40-60 on whether Eta keeps going WSW into EPac like UKMET or turns NW into Gulf of Honduras. Earlier runs were higher for Epac (more like 60-40% I think). So, somewhat of a trend away from moving to EPac for EPS.

[LarryWx]

Would a stronger storm tend to move on a further N/NE track? That's what several here are saying. If so, why? How does the forecasted steering change, if any, when going up higher in the atmosphere?

[SFLcane]

Euro ends with an intensifying storm heading north towards Florida. Here is another view of the hwrf

[TallahasseeMan]

https://i.imgur.com/LzZJDIv.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/29L_gefs_latest.png

GFS/Euro ensembles in good agreement that this gets back in the Caribbean

[SFLcane]

Euro 12z heading north.

[LarryWx]

I don’t care what anyone says, HWRF has been amazing this year.

HWRF was good for Zeta, but OFCL, was a bit better...
Average Track Error (nautical miles):
https://i.ibb.co/9gfRpGP/Capture111e.jpg

So, this shows that for Zeta that the HWRF was the worst for track error for 72-120 hours out. That model has some really way off tracks sometimes.

[Spacecoast]

I don’t care what anyone says, HWRF has been amazing this year.

HWRF was good for Zeta, but OFCL, was a bit better...
Average Track Error (nautical miles):
https://i.ibb.co/9gfRpGP/Capture111e.jpg

So, this shows that for Zeta that the HWRF was the worst for track error for 72-120 hours out. That model has some really way off tracks sometimes.

I wouldn't go that far... I only selected some of the guidance models.
Average track error for Zeta was 202 nm @72 hrs, &341 nm @240hrs. There were many guidance tracks that were worse.
I will say that accuracy really drops off for HWRF after 48hrs, and it is hard to beat OFCL for accuracy overall across all time frames
See for yourself..
Zeta Final Tracking error list for all models:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2020&storm=28&display=model_error&type=table&run=2020102918&error_type=average&interval=24&hour=120&position_unit=nm&intensity_unit=kts&show_cases=&heat_map=&hide_zero_hour=&model_toggle_option=&show_bearing=&trend=&show_trend_text=&zero_hour_within=10&intensity_option=&hide_model_names=&extra_info=2&sorting_error_method=&sorting_error_hour=72&sorting_error_option=1

[AutoPenalti]

Is there a reason why this somehow intensifies over Cuba