ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

55kts in NW quad.

North quad likely higher yet.


very close to a hurricane. and with large towers wrapping around it wont be long.

I wonder why the HWRF didn't show any latitude gain when it was portraying a RI scenario at landfall yesterday? This could be as difficult as Mitch to forecast with weak steering and having to wait days for troughs to evolve or miss.

[Aric Dunn]

55kts in NW quad.

North quad likely higher yet.


very close to a hurricane. and with large towers wrapping around it wont be long.

I wonder why the HWRF didn't show any latitude gain when it was portraying a RI scenario at landfall yesterday? This could be as difficult as Mitch to forecast with weak steering and having to wait days for troughs to evolve or miss.

Because it did not deepen soon enough.. the ridging had already built in before eta deepens.

Which of course now we know it will be a lot stronger than all the models except the 12z HWRF so far.

[CrazyC83]

Based on all the data, 55 kt seems a reasonable intensity estimate.

[ElectricStorm]

Gotta get used to all the advisories/model runs/updates happening an hour earlier now lol

[TheStormExpert]

Gotta get used to all the advisories/model runs/updates happening an hour earlier now lol

Not too often we have trouble in the Atlantic when DST ends.

[SouthFLTropics]

Gotta get used to all the advisories/model runs/updates happening an hour earlier now lol

It is a little tricky... Haven't ever really tracked anything this late in the season before. Normally storms this late are of no consequence to my local area. Not so in 2020. I will say that it is nice having the models an hour "earlier". Don't have to stay up so late waiting for those 00z runs.

[Kazmit]

Now expected to get to 95 kts

[ElectricStorm]

NHC forecasts nearly a major at landfall now... Which I think it will be

[aspen]

Eta really has the look of something that’s about to go nuclear. All it needs is a couple of big hot towers to go off — that’ll form a healthy CDO and close off the eyewall. Tonight’s DMax might be the push towards RI.

So far the HWRF has done the best job with Eta. If its 12z run is even remotely right, Eta has the chance to stall over water and either not make landfall or just graze the coast, depending on how strong it gets. I won’t be surprised if more significant track shifts come up if Eta undergoes RI or ERI tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

A catastrofy for those folks.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1323016216986873856

[Ian2401]

when does next recon go out?

[LarryWx]

Would a stronger storm tend to move on a further N/NE track? That's what several here are saying. If so, why? How does the forecasted steering change, if any, when going up higher in the atmosphere?

Bump. So, nobody really knows the answer as to why a stronger Eta would mover further N/NE and, therefore, if that is even true?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Would a stronger storm tend to move on a further N/NE track? That's what several here are saying. If so, why? How does the forecasted steering change, if any, when going up higher in the atmosphere?

Bump. So, nobody really knows the answer as to why a stronger Eta would mover further N/NE and, therefore, if that is even true?

I suggested it earlier in the model thread, but I appear to be incorrect. The 18z GFS was significantly stronger and went further south into CA.

[aspen]

The next 18 hours are going to be critical in determining Eta’s future impacts in CA. If, by 6-12z tomorrow morning, Eta is a 970s system within a healthy CDO and pinhole eye starting to pop out, then the HWRF’s solution is likely right. That would mean Eta will bomb out into a major and slow down either right on the coast or just east of it, over water. If Eta is still getting organized by 12z tomorrow, the western model solutions will be correct.

An eastern solution (HWRF) would range from a stronger Mitch to a major that stays off the coast, scraping part of CA but not diving fully inland. A western solution (Euro) will be more like Mitch, with the system rapidly weakening and staying deep within CA as a weak but wet TC. Nearly every outcome is going to be terrible for Nicaragua and Honduras (a Cat 2+ strike is likely in all of them), except for the slim chance that Eta doesn’t make landfall at all.

[MetroMike]

Man, people must be absolutely exhausted. If this was Isaias' timeframe, how many pages would this thread be already? I'm pretty sure we had way more than 24 pages at this stage of Eta's journey!


Editing to say it was the 33rd page of invests before Isaias was a storm!

If Florida is in the cone, activity will skyrocket on here.

As of now, most folks here in the Keys do not think it will threaten us.

As of now that does not really matter what they think.

[ElectricStorm]

Would a stronger storm tend to move on a further N/NE track? That's what several here are saying. If so, why? How does the forecasted steering change, if any, when going up higher in the atmosphere?

Bump. So, nobody really knows the answer as to why a stronger Eta would mover further N/NE and, therefore, if that is even true?

Isn't it usually a stronger storm moves west? I haven't paid attention to all the steering factors with Eta though. I know there can be exceptions

[us89]

Would a stronger storm tend to move on a further N/NE track? That's what several here are saying. If so, why? How does the forecasted steering change, if any, when going up higher in the atmosphere?

Bump. So, nobody really knows the answer as to why a stronger Eta would mover further N/NE and, therefore, if that is even true?

Isn't it usually a stronger storm moves west? I haven't paid attention to all the steering factors with Eta though. I know there can be exceptions

Per Levi's video last night, Eta is currently being driven primarily by low-level trade winds weakening with height. So a stronger, deeper Eta would reach upward into a layer of lighter flow, resulting in an overall slower storm motion.

[Kazmit]

Would a stronger storm tend to move on a further N/NE track? That's what several here are saying. If so, why? How does the forecasted steering change, if any, when going up higher in the atmosphere?

Bump. So, nobody really knows the answer as to why a stronger Eta would mover further N/NE and, therefore, if that is even true?

Isn't it usually a stronger storm moves west? I haven't paid attention to all the steering factors with Eta though. I know there can be exceptions

No, stronger is usually more east.

[supercane4867]

[skyline385]

Looking pretty good on IR, looks like the CDO is starting to wrap around.