ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/UICdJOE.jpg

The HWRF was right about a much weaker SE quadrant. It’s been scarily accurate with a lot of systems this year.

[ElectricStorm]

https://i.imgur.com/UICdJOE.jpg

The HWRF was right about a much weaker SE quadrant. It’s been scarily accurate with a lot of systems this year.

Yeah it has. It showed Eta having this structure a few days ago... That's why I'm worried about it getting pretty strong

[shiny-pebble]

Eta has really expanded in size in the past 12 hours

[Blown Away]

NHC barely adjusted the track even with Eta bombing out in intensity, so the deeper stronger hurricane may move more poleward idea doesn’t seem to matter in this scenario.

[SFLcane]

NHC barely adjusted the track even with Eta bombing out in intensity, so the deeper stronger hurricane may move more poleward idea doesn’t seem to matter in this scenario.

Regardless there is growing consensus this will develop in the nw Caribbean and potentially threaten SFL.

[skyline385]

Lots of towers popping up around the center right now, could it be ahead of the HWRF forecast?

[Aric Dunn]

NHC barely adjusted the track even with Eta bombing out in intensity, so the deeper stronger hurricane may move more poleward idea doesn’t seem to matter in this scenario.

Of course it does.

the NHC will always follow the model average. and right now they have not adjusted.. HMON is farther north and stronger for 18z.

sometimes you just have to wait and see.

But the models are showing weaker steering 500-400 mb layers. so a stronger system likely would not make landfall.

[skyline385]

Looks to me like the eye is starting to pop out already

[ElectricStorm]

Bump. So, nobody really knows the answer as to why a stronger Eta would mover further N/NE and, therefore, if that is even true?

Isn't it usually a stronger storm moves west? I haven't paid attention to all the steering factors with Eta though. I know there can be exceptions

No, stronger is usually more east.

Yep you right I had a brain fart

[gatorcane]

NHC barely adjusted the track even with Eta bombing out in intensity, so the deeper stronger hurricane may move more poleward idea doesn’t seem to matter in this scenario.

Regardless there is growing consensus this will develop in the nw Caribbean and potentially threaten SFL.

Maybe this first part but the second doubtful in my opinion and if it does it would likely be a shell of its former self due to dry air and shear as well as land interaction. The models like the GFS are always hitting Florida beyond a week and in fact the latest GFS looks east of Florida anyway which is very possible for November. Now for the Caribbean for those in Nicaragua and Honduras

Saved loop:

[skyline385]

Significantly stronger HWRF run too this time, difference of 12 mb (963 mb) at 12 hours from 12Z

[ElectricStorm]

If this RI's or even ERI's and landfalls at it's peak... And then stalls... This could be a storm remembered for many years, maybe even decades, to come

[Aric Dunn]

First hints of an eye starting to clear out.

likely to undergo RI from this point on.

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF thinks RI has already started. It predicts CAT4 Eta only 24 hours from now.

[supercane4867]

Look at that dual outflow channel and moisture supply from monsoon trough. This will aid Eta to go nuclear in no time...

[shiny-pebble]

Hot towers rotating around the center. No bueno.

[skyline385]

So when is next recon again?

[CrazyC83]

So when is next recon again?

Arrives at 06Z. Leaves base around 02Z.

[aspen]

So when is next recon again?

Arrives at 06Z. Leaves base around 02Z.

Good timing. The HWRF is expecting at least a Cat 2 hurricane by then, so recon will be able to confirm whether it’s right or not.

[CrazyC83]

So when is next recon again?

Arrives at 06Z. Leaves base around 02Z.

Good timing. The HWRF is expecting at least a Cat 2 hurricane by then, so recon will be able to confirm whether it’s right or not.

I'd very conservatively go 60 kt at the intermediate advisory forthcoming.