ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

Looks to me like the eye is starting to pop out already

https://i.imgur.com/DtaD54I.png

Pinhole?

[supercane4867]

[Kingarabian]

Arrives at 06Z. Leaves base around 02Z.

Good timing. The HWRF is expecting at least a Cat 2 hurricane by then, so recon will be able to confirm whether it’s right or not.

I'd very conservatively go 60 kt at the intermediate advisory forthcoming.

Could easily be a Cat.1 at this point. Looks like MW is depicting a tight eyewall.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks to me like the eye is starting to pop out already

https://i.imgur.com/DtaD54I.png

Pinhole?

IR looks ragged.

[aspen]

Eta finally has a solid CDO. Looks like it's curling a bit.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 79.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES

[SconnieCane]

Been hauling across the Caribbean and burning up longitude all day. Needs to put on the brakes like now if the slower/stronger models are going to verify, or it will run out of water.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hate to say it, but if the HWRF is right we may be looking at a rather incredible round of rapid intensification beginning here shortly. Microwave also shows a structure primed for some potentially explosive RI. Last major of the season?

[aspen]

Been hauling across the Caribbean and burning up longitude all day. Needs to put on the brakes like now if the slower/stronger models are going to verify, or it will run out of water.

A deeper system will slow down, and it looks like Eta will get very deep very quickly. A <940 mbar system by late tomorrow will slow down enough to delay landfall, potentially by up to 18 hours.

[supercane4867]

I'd be very surprised that if the intense HWRF run doesn't pan out at this point.

[Highteeld]

Crazy cloud tops, not unlike Goni in the western pacific

[Blown Away]

Been hauling across the Caribbean and burning up longitude all day. Needs to put on the brakes like now if the slower/stronger models are going to verify, or it will run out of water.

A deeper system will slow down, and it looks like Eta will get very deep very quickly. A <940 mbar system by late tomorrow will slow down enough to delay landfall, potentially by up to 18 hours.

The NHC track covers @300 miles of land after landfall. Seriously doubt Eta’s current LLC will survive that many miles of longitude over land. Anything post CA will likely be a new circulation. Unfortunately for CA, to much model support for a direct landfall and unwinding of the circulation over land.

[us89]

Crazy cloud tops, not unlike Goni in the western pacific

Oh god, let's not go there...

[aspen]

Eta has developed a compact <-80C CDO with banding and outflow in nearly all quadrants. I think there’s a decent shot of the NHC upgrading this to a hurricane at 10pm, and it’s probably beginning the phase of RI the HWRF has been so insistent on for days.

[Keldeo1997]

SHIPS now up to 50% of a 65kt boost up to 145MPH Cat 4

[Chemmers]

Could be are first cat 5 off the season maybe if it goes pinhole

[Iceresistance]

If Eta becomes a powerful hurricane, it will likely slow down before deciding on where to go. (Dorian 2019 did the same thing)

[Highteeld]

Crazy cloud tops, not unlike Goni in the western pacific

Oh god, let's not go there...

[Kazmit]

I just found out it's pronounced EE-tah. Sounds better than EH-tah anyway.

[supercane4867]