ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Laminar]

Nearly all models have been onboard with some kind of reformation in the Gulf of Honduras a few days after landfall.

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, what a catastrophe in the making. NHC keeps Eta over CA for @3 days. Wouldn’t be surprised if “Remnant Low” at the 5 day is in the future.

Possible but we may just get some broad low to form over the NW Caribbean from the CAG. Either way, what happened to all of the Florida posters this evening besides you (and I)?

They’re probably won’t be anything left of Eta when it emerges in the Gulf of Honduras Friday evening. Maybe it’s best not to pay attention to those absurd GFS runs from a few days ago.

Now that’s what I call a tin foil hat.

[ClarCari]

There’s a reason the NHC is not forecasting Eta dissipating/post-tropical over CA. Storms have managed to reemerge out of the mountainous terrain still at TS strength or higher.

You know the old saying, Don’t bury someone before they’re dead.

I would not be surprised in the slightest to see this dumping on Honduras and Nicaragua for dayzz as a TS. They’ll be lucky if it can weaken to a weak TD but that doesn’t always happen as fast as we would like.

[Owasso]

 https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1323109549058990085

[cycloneye]

There’s a reason the NHC is not forecasting Eta dissipating/post-tropical over CA. Storms have managed to reemerge out of the mountainous terrain still at TS strength or higher.

You know the old saying, Don’t bury someone before they’re dead.

I would not be surprised in the slightest to see this dumping on Honduras and Nicaragua for dayzz as a TS. They’ll be lucky if it can weaken to a weak TD but that doesn’t always happen as fast as we would like.

I think that word dumping is not the best one to use because if what the forecast pans out, it will be a big disaster for those folks.

[ClarCari]

There’s a reason the NHC is not forecasting Eta dissipating/post-tropical over CA. Storms have managed to reemerge out of the mountainous terrain still at TS strength or higher.

You know the old saying, Don’t bury someone before they’re dead.

I would not be surprised in the slightest to see this dumping on Honduras and Nicaragua for dayzz as a TS. They’ll be lucky if it can weaken to a weak TD but that doesn’t always happen as fast as we would like.

I think that word dumping is not the best one to use because if what the forecast pans out, it will be a big disaster for those folks.

Oh when I say dumping I always mean it in the worst way possible.
Here in TX that was the dreaded word for Harvey in Houston.

[CrazyC83]

I think NHC will upgrade to a hurricane at the next intermediate advisory, since it's clear there won't be Recon until 12Z.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

What on Earth happened to recon?

[SouthFLTropics]

Of all the times to have a problem with the Recon plane!!! Come on man!!!

[ozonepete]

Possible but we may just get some broad low to form over the NW Caribbean from the CAG. Either way, what happened to all of the Florida posters this evening besides you (and I)?

They’re probably won’t be anything left of Eta when it emerges in the Gulf of Honduras Friday evening. Maybe it’s best not to pay attention to those absurd GFS runs from a few days ago.

A new low could form within the broad cyclonic gyre as Levi indicated yesterday, and the Euro has been consistent on this for the last few runs.

The GFS had this rough idea days before the Euro. And it's way too early to call those runs "absurd" since the Euro seems to be getting on board slowly.

[Kazmit]

Of all the times to have a problem with the Recon plane!!! Come on man!!!

Recon problems seem to be a trend this year.

[ozonepete]

Of all the times to have a problem with the Recon plane!!! Come on man!!!

Recon problems seem to be a trend this year.

well with a record amount of tropical cyclones...

[cycloneye]

I think NHC will upgrade to a hurricane at the next intermediate advisory, since it's clear there won't be Recon until 12Z.

Or maybe on a Tropical Cyclone Update?

[SouthFLTropics]

Of all the times to have a problem with the Recon plane!!! Come on man!!!

Recon problems seem to be a trend this year.

well with a record amount of tropical cyclones...

This is true... They've definitely been putting some miles on the planes and burning through plenty of jet fuel. The plane is probably begging for a break. It looked at the calendar and saw that it was November 1st and asked the crew why it was still flying to a storm???

[Spacecoast]

Wow, what a catastrophe in the making. NHC keeps Eta over CA for @3 days. Wouldn’t be surprised if “Remnant Low” at the 5 day is in the future.

Regardless of intensity, this is a really serious situation. Tropical Storm Fay in 2008 hovered over my area for 3+days,and dropped 27.4" of rain.
With Florida's flat terrain, it was not life threatening, but taught me not to underestimate Tropical Storm damage.
In mountainous terrain, total accumulated Precipitation is much, much worse than any high wind potential.
I hope that evacuations are underway in any low lying areas of Nicaragua, Honduras, Jamaica, and Cuba,

[wx98]

This would prob be enough to support a hurricane:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2020 Time : 035018 UTC
Lat : 14:53:48 N Lon : 80:08:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 987.9mb/ 61.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 4.0 4.4

Center Temp : -73.5C Cloud Region Temp : -76.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

[CrazyC83]

I'd go up to 70 kt at the intermediate personally out of respect of trends (pressure 982 mb).

[jaxfladude]

https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1323109549058990085

Why is 2020 always messing with the recon planes, what did the recon planes ever do to 2020?
But in all seriousness prayers for all in possible harm's way of ETA!

[Beef Stew]

Since recon has now been cancelled, out of respect to the satellite presentation and tonight's organizational trends I'd think the NHC gives Eta the bump to hurricane sooner than later. By the time recon gets to Eta tomorrow, it may well already be a monster...

[Ptarmigan]

Since recon has now been cancelled, out of respect to the satellite presentation and tonight's organizational trends I'd think the NHC gives Eta the bump to hurricane sooner than later. By the time recon gets to Eta tomorrow, it may well already be a monster...

I would not be surprised. I saw forecast models and do have it as a major hurricane.
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime ... /al292020/