ATL: ETA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

00z GFS already has Eta down to 979MB within the next 6 hours. Lowest it has shown at that time slot since inception. And that 979 is probably not low enough. I'm afraid the HWRF is going to verify here. Bad situation unfolding for the Mosquito Coast.

[caneseddy]

00z ICON goes with reformation in the Gulf of Honduras and then finishes the run heading towards Cuba as a strengthening storm

[SouthFLTropics]

ICON pulling out all the stops for 2020 with the rare Georgia coast hit on November 9th.

[SFLcane]

I find it amusing how some completely disregard the much improved GEFS ensembles.

[GeneratorPower]

I find it amusing how some completely disregard the much improved GEFS ensembles.

https://i.postimg.cc/SxKcpt7c/928-CD158-8-AC7-4338-BAF1-60661-FD596-F4.jpg

Wow. That’s amazing. I didn’t know it was that different. Thanks for posting.

[TheStormExpert]

I find it amusing how some completely disregard the much improved GEFS ensembles.

https://i.postimg.cc/SxKcpt7c/928-CD158-8-AC7-4338-BAF1-60661-FD596-F4.jpg

Looks like a four year old drew on that map!

[Keldeo1997]

HWRF with recon data still bombing out. Only 3mbs weaker then last run

[SFLcane]

Gfs has a hurricane landfall in SFL 984mb

[SouthFLTropics]

18z vs 00z HMON... 00z faster by a good bit.

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF much stronger than HMON... strong Cat 4 coming in Loops back SE without landfall so far at hour 39

[Spacecoast]

HWRF drops down to 14.5N prior to landfall,much further south than previous runs...
looks like a stall.
EDIT: A loop

[tiger_deF]

HWRF does a cyclonic loop right off the coast of Nicaragua

[Deshaunrob17]

HWRF drops down to 14.5N prior to landfall,much further south than previous runs...
looks like a stall
https://i.ibb.co/6tf4Gx4/Capture111k.jpg

If you look at satellite, the model has Eta with Matthew-like appearance.. Weird and large looking hurricane with a large eastern blob attached to it

[ElectricStorm]

Finally landfalls as a Cat 4 at hour 57. A catastrophe if that were to verify

[Spacecoast]

HWRF drops down to 14.5N prior to landfall,much further south than previous runs...
looks like a stall
https://i.ibb.co/6tf4Gx4/Capture111k.jpg

If you look at satellite, the model has Eta with Matthew-like appearance.. Weird and large looking hurricane with a large eastern blob attached to it

Finally landfalls as a Cat 4 at hour 57. A catastrophe if that were to verify

Yes, I see the eastern convection. It was there on 18z runs as well.
HWRF & HMON have been consistent with powerful landfall near Laguna de Caratasca. A Cat 3/4 will probably verify, unfortunately.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro: a little bit further NE than most prior runs when in Nicaragua.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro: coming out from Gulf of Honduras quite a bit stronger than the 12Z had.

[SouthFLTropics]

EURO... WHAT ARE YOU DOING??? Leave those people in Central America alone!!!

EDIT: Whew, for a minute there I thought the Euro was going to loop around and take another swipe at Honduras and Nicaragua.

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[Keldeo1997]

[SouthFLTropics]

Euro ends with a 930 MB cane headed NW towards the Yucatán Channel. WOW


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