ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Is it me or has this slowed down the last few hours
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2020 Time : 045018 UTC
Lat : 14:53:27 N Lon : 80:17:21 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 986.5mb/ 63.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.1 4.3
Center Temp : -76.6C Cloud Region Temp : -73.7C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Subtropical Adjustment : OFF
Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2020 Time : 045018 UTC
Lat : 14:53:27 N Lon : 80:17:21 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 986.5mb/ 63.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.1 4.3
Center Temp : -76.6C Cloud Region Temp : -73.7C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Subtropical Adjustment : OFF
Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
After ASCAT missing this way too many times and now with recon cancelled, this storm should be known as Elusive Eta
.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Some Californian who codes things and tracks weather.
Kay '22, Hilary '23
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I wonder what's holding them back?
...ETA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND
LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 80.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
...ETA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND
LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 80.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Weather Dude wrote:I wonder what's holding them back?
...ETA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND
LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 80.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
Probably got some satellite estimates of T3.5 still and the lack of an open eye.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
What stuck out from the 10pm discussion was this:
A little surpsrised they did not upgrade with the intermediate. By the time recon gets there tomorrow, Eta may be a major hurricane.
Looking very bad for Nicaragua and Honduras. Hopefully the residents are getting the message that a strong hurricane with extreme flooding is imminent.
.... Eta possibly devolving into a large, quasi-stationary
Central American Gyre (CAG).
A little surpsrised they did not upgrade with the intermediate. By the time recon gets there tomorrow, Eta may be a major hurricane.
Looking very bad for Nicaragua and Honduras. Hopefully the residents are getting the message that a strong hurricane with extreme flooding is imminent.
Last edited by Jr0d on Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Jr0d wrote:What stuck out from the 10pm discussion was this:.... Eta possibly devolving into a large, quasi-stationary
Central American Gyre (CAG).
A little surpsrised they did not upgrade with the intermediate. By the time recon gets there tomorrow, Eta may be a major hurricane.
Yeah I thought they would've upgraded it. Unless there's some pesky mid-level shear like Delta had, I don't see anything stopping Eta from exploding into a Cat 4+ unfortunately
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Keldeo1997 wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/772700856809291836/20201102.png
there's the pinhole
um yeah that's a cane

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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Keldeo1997 wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/772700856809291836/20201102.png
there's the pinhole
I wonder if they will pull the upgrade on a Tropical Cyclone Update? That came too late for the advisory.
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Keldeo1997 wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/772700856809291836/20201102.png
there's the pinhole
That looks more impressive than I thought it would. That core is small, surrounded by a thick eyewall in the middle of that large envelope. Once it starts the RI phase, there won’t be much to stop it
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Keldeo1997 wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/772700856809291836/20201102.png
there's the pinhole
umm... this is a hurricane, lol.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
If Eta were to follow the minimum strengthening rate for RI from here on out until it hits Nicaragua, assuming that happens at 7 AM Wednesday, it would strengthen 45 kt to a 105 kt peak at landfall.
That said, the ceiling is likely quite a bit higher than that - both because 1) this is very likely stronger than the 60 kt NHC is giving it now, and 2) conditions are near-perfect enough that we could see intensification rates well in excess of the 30kt/24hr threshold. Would not be surprised to see another cat 4 out of this.
That said, the ceiling is likely quite a bit higher than that - both because 1) this is very likely stronger than the 60 kt NHC is giving it now, and 2) conditions are near-perfect enough that we could see intensification rates well in excess of the 30kt/24hr threshold. Would not be surprised to see another cat 4 out of this.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
ADT up to 4.3
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2020 Time : 055018 UTC
Lat : 14:53:00 N Lon : 80:26:29 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 980.2mb/ 72.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 4.3
Center Temp : -78.8C Cloud Region Temp : -72.8C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE
Subtropical Adjustment : OFF
Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2020 Time : 055018 UTC
Lat : 14:53:00 N Lon : 80:26:29 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 980.2mb/ 72.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 4.3
Center Temp : -78.8C Cloud Region Temp : -72.8C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE
Subtropical Adjustment : OFF
Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Owasso wrote:ADT up to 4.3UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2020 Time : 055018 UTC
Lat : 14:53:00 N Lon : 80:26:29 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 980.2mb/ 72.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 4.3
Center Temp : -78.8C Cloud Region Temp : -72.8C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE
Subtropical Adjustment : OFF
Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
ADT usually struggles on the low side with pinholes... so there's a chance it could already be stronger than that...

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AL, 29, 2020110206, , BEST, 0, 149N, 804W, 65, 987, HU
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Nancy Smar wrote:AL, 29, 2020110206, , BEST, 0, 149N, 804W, 65, 987, HU
Probably on the conservative side (I would go with 75 kt), but the T4.0 and the microwave probably did them in.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
CrazyC83 wrote:Nancy Smar wrote:AL, 29, 2020110206, , BEST, 0, 149N, 804W, 65, 987, HU
Probably on the conservative side (I would go with 75 kt), but the T4.0 and the microwave probably did them in.
Now will they have an update statement or make us wait till the next advisory?
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