ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#621 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:03 am

Is it me or has this slowed down the last few hours
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#622 Postby Owasso » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:29 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2020 Time : 045018 UTC
Lat : 14:53:27 N Lon : 80:17:21 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 986.5mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.1 4.3

Center Temp : -76.6C Cloud Region Temp : -73.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#623 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:40 am

After ASCAT missing this way too many times and now with recon cancelled, this storm should be known as Elusive Eta :lol:.
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Some Californian who codes things and tracks weather.

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#624 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:46 am

I wonder what's holding them back?

...ETA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND
LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 80.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#625 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:47 am

Weather Dude wrote:I wonder what's holding them back?

...ETA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND
LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 80.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


Probably got some satellite estimates of T3.5 still and the lack of an open eye.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#626 Postby Jr0d » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:52 am

What stuck out from the 10pm discussion was this:
.... Eta possibly devolving into a large, quasi-stationary
Central American Gyre (CAG).


A little surpsrised they did not upgrade with the intermediate. By the time recon gets there tomorrow, Eta may be a major hurricane.

Looking very bad for Nicaragua and Honduras. Hopefully the residents are getting the message that a strong hurricane with extreme flooding is imminent.
Last edited by Jr0d on Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#627 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:54 am

Jr0d wrote:What stuck out from the 10pm discussion was this:
.... Eta possibly devolving into a large, quasi-stationary
Central American Gyre (CAG).


A little surpsrised they did not upgrade with the intermediate. By the time recon gets there tomorrow, Eta may be a major hurricane.

Yeah I thought they would've upgraded it. Unless there's some pesky mid-level shear like Delta had, I don't see anything stopping Eta from exploding into a Cat 4+ unfortunately
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#628 Postby Keldeo1997 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:58 am

Image

there's the pinhole
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#629 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:59 am

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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#630 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:00 am



I wonder if they will pull the upgrade on a Tropical Cyclone Update? That came too late for the advisory.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#631 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:02 am


That looks more impressive than I thought it would. That core is small, surrounded by a thick eyewall in the middle of that large envelope. Once it starts the RI phase, there won’t be much to stop it
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#632 Postby Keldeo1997 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:03 am

Image

another view
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#633 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:15 am


umm... this is a hurricane, lol.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#634 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:19 am

02/0530 UTC 14.9N 80.3W T4.0/4.0 ETA -- Atlantic
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#635 Postby us89 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:23 am

If Eta were to follow the minimum strengthening rate for RI from here on out until it hits Nicaragua, assuming that happens at 7 AM Wednesday, it would strengthen 45 kt to a 105 kt peak at landfall.

That said, the ceiling is likely quite a bit higher than that - both because 1) this is very likely stronger than the 60 kt NHC is giving it now, and 2) conditions are near-perfect enough that we could see intensification rates well in excess of the 30kt/24hr threshold. Would not be surprised to see another cat 4 out of this.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#636 Postby Owasso » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:25 am

ADT up to 4.3

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2020 Time : 055018 UTC
Lat : 14:53:00 N Lon : 80:26:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 980.2mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 4.3

Center Temp : -78.8C Cloud Region Temp : -72.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#637 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:27 am

Owasso wrote:ADT up to 4.3

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2020 Time : 055018 UTC
Lat : 14:53:00 N Lon : 80:26:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 980.2mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 4.3

Center Temp : -78.8C Cloud Region Temp : -72.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

ADT usually struggles on the low side with pinholes... so there's a chance it could already be stronger than that... :eek:
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#638 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:32 am

AL, 29, 2020110206, , BEST, 0, 149N, 804W, 65, 987, HU
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#639 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:33 am

Nancy Smar wrote:
AL, 29, 2020110206, , BEST, 0, 149N, 804W, 65, 987, HU


Probably on the conservative side (I would go with 75 kt), but the T4.0 and the microwave probably did them in.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#640 Postby us89 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:35 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
Nancy Smar wrote:
AL, 29, 2020110206, , BEST, 0, 149N, 804W, 65, 987, HU


Probably on the conservative side (I would go with 75 kt), but the T4.0 and the microwave probably did them in.


Now will they have an update statement or make us wait till the next advisory?
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