ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ClarCari
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#641 Postby ClarCari » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:36 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
Nancy Smar wrote:
AL, 29, 2020110206, , BEST, 0, 149N, 804W, 65, 987, HU


Probably on the conservative side (I would go with 75 kt), but the T4.0 and the microwave probably did them in.


I’d imagine the NHC will probably upgrade BT at these hours like crazy later on if recon finds a much stronger storm soon.

As long as they upgrade this to a hurricane to solidify this system’s danger to the Honduran/Nicaraguan public I’m find with waiting for updates later.
Last edited by ClarCari on Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#642 Postby ClarCari » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:37 am

us89 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Nancy Smar wrote:
AL, 29, 2020110206, , BEST, 0, 149N, 804W, 65, 987, HU


Probably on the conservative side (I would go with 75 kt), but the T4.0 and the microwave probably did them in.


Now will they have an update statement or make us wait till the next advisory?


Next advisory since most people this side of the world are asleep, and it’s a relatively minor upgrade on their end.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#643 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:40 am

ClarCari wrote:
us89 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Probably on the conservative side (I would go with 75 kt), but the T4.0 and the microwave probably did them in.


Now will they have an update statement or make us wait till the next advisory?


Next advisory since most people this side of the world are asleep, and it’s a relatively minor upgrade on their end.

If Eta keeps strengthening like at its current rate it will be a lot stronger than 65kts at the next advisory so I guess a special advisory could happen... we'll see
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#644 Postby Ryxn » Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:48 am

So strange to see it as a "tropical storm" on NHC then immediately switch to the satellite and really see the storm which is actually a likely rapidly strengthening hurricane.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#645 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:03 am

Ryxn wrote:So strange to see it as a "tropical storm" on NHC then immediately switch to the satellite and really see the storm which is actually a likely rapidly strengthening hurricane.

yeah, i'm sure they would have bumped it up to 75mph at 1am eastern if they had a do over lol.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#646 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:07 am

Image

eye is beginning to clear out
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#647 Postby ClarCari » Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:15 am

Recon should be @Eta in a couple hours or so.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#648 Postby StAuggy » Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:37 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:https://i.gyazo.com/a16048411416df30ba8b396ac097f5fc.jpg

eye is beginning to clear out


Eye is also visible on water vapor now. It’s looking like all engines go.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#649 Postby Owasso » Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:38 am

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#650 Postby Owasso » Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:50 am

...ETA BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND
LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

LOCATION...14.8N 80.9W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1323185594126671873


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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#651 Postby kevin » Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:52 am



Wow what an incredible IR representation, I'm afraid this will be a major hurricane sooner rather than later if it keeps intensifying like this.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#652 Postby Ryxn » Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:59 am

kevin wrote:


Wow what an incredible IR representation, I'm afraid this will be a major hurricane sooner rather than later if it keeps intensifying like this.


Also a chance of a 115 knot Category 4 as well which would add another storm to the list of rapidly-intensifying hurricanes...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#653 Postby Owasso » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:39 am

Image
What an impressive hurricane. Trying to clear out again.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#654 Postby Chemmers » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:46 am

Off the scale rain rate near the centre, think by the time the recon get there could be a cat 2 already
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#655 Postby Owasso » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:50 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2020 Time : 092018 UTC
Lat : 14:47:27 N Lon : 80:57:04 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 976.8mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 4.4

Center Temp : -76.9C Cloud Region Temp : -76.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#656 Postby Keldeo1997 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:17 am

Image

:double:
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#657 Postby Owasso » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:18 am

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#658 Postby kevin » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:21 am

This is like Delta all over again. Unless unexpected shear causes some weakening like was the case with Delta, I don't think there's anything standing in the way of Eta besides land of course.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#659 Postby Owasso » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:22 am

Image
:eek:
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Re: ATL: ETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#660 Postby abajan » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:23 am

us89 wrote:If Eta were to follow the minimum strengthening rate for RI from here on out until it hits Nicaragua, assuming that happens at 7 AM Wednesday, it would strengthen 45 kt to a 105 kt peak at landfall.

That said, the ceiling is likely quite a bit higher than that - both because 1) this is very likely stronger than the 60 kt NHC is giving it now, and 2) conditions are near-perfect enough that we could see intensification rates well in excess of the 30kt/24hr threshold. Would not be surprised to see another cat 4 out of this.

Regardless of how strong it gets, the real story may be catastrophic flooding as it slows to a crawl over Central America. This is looking all-too-similar to Mitch. :cry:
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