ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

This is probably the most hyped recon flight this season. I’m sure they’re just as excited to get out there as we are for them to arrive.

I’m going to estimate they find a 945 mbar/120 kt Category 4 during their first pass.

[Blown Away]

November Florida Storms.

November Cuba Storms.

Where Eta Is Supposed To Emerge.

November Louisiana Storms. You're safe, hopefully.

[underthwx]

If I understand the 10 am NHC ETA discussion correctly....it's possible that the remnants of ETA could form into a new cyclone over the NW Carribean, and it would be named Zeta?....or is the 10 am track showing a weakened ETA, that will regain strength over the NW Carribean?....I am a bit confused, can someone please explain the current thinking on ETA?

I am not sure why they are questioning why the global models show a cyclone in the NW Caribbean by the end of the week, by following the h85 vorticity from Eta it is clearly the same cyclone reforming when its vorticity goes back over water by then.

That's what confused me NDG...and ETA is a powerful cyclone unfortunately...I also wonder how much it will weaken...even spending time over land, before reemerging over water....

[Iceresistance]

2020 is wearing me out really bad, Eta is not helping any.

[shiny-pebble]

No floater and no recon right now on a rapidly intensifying major hurricane. Lol

[p1nheadlarry]

If I understand the 10 am NHC ETA discussion correctly....it's possible that the remnants of ETA could form into a new cyclone over the NW Carribean, and it would be named Zeta?....or is the 10 am track showing a weakened ETA, that will regain strength over the NW Carribean?....I am a bit confused, can someone please explain the current thinking on ETA?

Zeta was already named!

Lord help me....I'm sorry..... whatever the next name on the list is...

Theta is next, but what the models are showing and what the discussion states are Eta's remnants reforming. It probably keeps the name Eta, and definitely would if it retains its structure and is still a TC.

Edit: if the intensity forecast tells me anything, it's currently expected to still be a TC (usually says REMNANT LOW, EXTRA-TROPICAL, etc):

INIT 02/1500Z 14.8N 81.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 14.4N 82.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 14.0N 83.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 13.9N 83.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1200Z 13.9N 84.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0000Z 14.2N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1200Z 14.6N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1200Z 15.8N 87.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/1200Z 17.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER

[Iceresistance]

This is probably the most hyped recon flight this season. I’m sure they’re just as excited to get out there as we are for them to arrive.

I’m going to estimate they find a 945 mbar/120 kt Category 4 during their first pass.

Wait! When is there another one?

[underthwx]

If I understand the 10 am NHC ETA discussion correctly....it's possible that the remnants of ETA could form into a new cyclone over the NW Carribean, and it would be named Zeta?....or is the 10 am track showing a weakened ETA, that will regain strength over the NW Carribean?....I am a bit confused, can someone please explain the current thinking on ETA?

Theta is the next letter. It's up to the NHC to decide if this keeps the same name or develops a new circulation and gets a new name. Time will tell.

Thankyou for your reply....

[Iceresistance]

No floater and no recon right now on a rapidly intensifying major hurricane. Lol

Wose timing possible I guess.

[Iceresistance]

No floater and no recon right now on a rapidly intensifying major hurricane. Lol

Worse timing possible I guess.

[aspen]

This is probably the most hyped recon flight this season. I’m sure they’re just as excited to get out there as we are for them to arrive.

I’m going to estimate they find a 945 mbar/120 kt Category 4 during their first pass.

Wait! When is there another one?

Should be leaving within the hour, I believe

[gfsperpendicular]

What a fascinating storm. I'm so glad we have the best in satellite technology trained on it so that we can watch its intensification!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Historical note: The last Category 4 in the Atlantic basin in the month of November was Paloma (2008).

Last Category 5? In the outside possibility Eta actually gets that powerful, you have to go back to 1932.

[Iceresistance]

What a fascinating storm. I'm so glad we have the best in satellite technology trained on it so that we can watch its intensification!
https://i.imgur.com/2jf7Tzq.gif

This one turned to the Northeast Coast of the US

[Kazmit]

ERI?

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/Amu_j93HKR3EwJgggHL-k5NWp_NakyGU1BxwIwavSsoXn96mqCtSPMuw4s9M9RBGx0o6CW2F4h9fd9HC96MZDoQCAc0HXZlfJM1isZVT76idTLazAPT6T6CXI1DGZZGpdLG0_awe3oABm1Ifcs6lLRP-ImhyqcNWSpSHGJOajImkc8lxmJBun-nj6_tzTxjPYqz0QDsv6eARPSGoW_6Xi0ddp6a8sbC_twKqvpNBW8POLMHQfb8gMHinYnqCZqad-sNyZ_k4-c6y2IPyO7ZOeijmr4cP_Qbtlfy93svQvErsaKw21fuc723ginEUdYUywlsrHQHY1iNnoT8vVM00WKDxs16Ffg02zsrOFFzCgmLZ99xOYui0ri0JPr2FeYama-V8L1z8t7FZjUA2slp48BhTAHenRYEpKo3aZlyxaLN1_9UuRKljLciH9zMBCDSKoGnxzPBojqycKBgSwpDCS2nzfMHLp-X7gxQpyJ_eoNxpgBQya8J5ZhP93MNB2kVIFCXTTQeT3iIZ04XI-63WxTvNktaPcHg5GIU0db8YJxEke0DKT9vtS0ii3I4v_bH7pTs6KNLz-wtlfaUVm6IjUXUQl75i2g5rrWJ7LDuSBuIMCTLXtu0Vl4G7Djl3oPQ004duMIbnLXpaXSPMI6QETksO8bh3owRQ67TpDloX5yj9SQTRFggs4IYr72lA=w1200-h845-no?authuser=0

What is ERI?

Extremely rapid intensification

[tolakram]

Floater moved: https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goe ... o2_30.html

[AutoPenalti]

Never seen an intensifying hurricane go from a Cat 2 in the Western Caribbean to a Post-Tropical low in the Northeast in less than 2 seconds.

[Do_For_Love]

This one turned to the Northeast Coast of the US

Maybe they are sick of the negatives of 2020 and trying to focus on the positive like the bright blue skies out here today! Jk

[wxman57]

If I understand the 10 am NHC ETA discussion correctly....it's possible that the remnants of ETA could form into a new cyclone over the NW Carribean, and it would be named Zeta?....or is the 10 am track showing a weakened ETA, that will regain strength over the NW Carribean?....I am a bit confused, can someone please explain the current thinking on ETA?

I am not sure why they are questioning why the global models show a cyclone in the NW Caribbean by the end of the week, by following the h85 vorticity from Eta it is clearly the same cyclone reforming when its vorticity goes back over water by then.

That's what confused me NDG...and ETA is a powerful cyclone unfortunately...I also wonder how much it will weaken...even spending time over land, before reemerging over water....

Eta is a rather small hurricane. It will be inland for over 48 hrs, passing over some tall mountains in Honduras on Wed/Thu. It may be lucky to retain its circulation when it emerges off the coast of Honduras, but it should redevelop this weekend.

[GCANE]

No floater and no recon right now on a rapidly intensifying major hurricane. Lol

Floater switched to MESO 2