ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#961 Postby cjrciadt » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:06 pm

NHC has drones that can collect data as well, dont know if they are operational.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#962 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:07 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Well recon better get its act together in the next hour or two...

Something went wrong with one of the Recon planes that was supposed to be inside Eta.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#963 Postby Ian2401 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:07 pm

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#964 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:07 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:If I had to peg it, I'd say 110 knots right now.

https://i.imgur.com/VROLBr1.jpg


Just my opinion I think we are well above 110 knots. Probably high-end Cat 4 approaching Cat 5 right now. Small tightly wound Charley type storm. But that's just my opinion.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#965 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:08 pm


Oh good, we may finally be able to have Recon inspect Eta.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#966 Postby underthwx » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:09 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Well recon better get its act together in the next hour or two...


How many aircraft do they have?....Is there not a backup aircraft?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#967 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:10 pm

Prayers for Central America
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#968 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:10 pm

Prayers for recon.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#969 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:10 pm

Is the other recon flight going to be on schedule?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#970 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:13 pm

Still nothing yet, maybe this afternoon
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#971 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:16 pm

If Eta has kept up its 4.25 mb/hr deepening rate, it is likely around 945-950 mbar right now. Recon could find a sub-940 mbar storm when it arrives in a few hours.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#972 Postby Patrick99 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:19 pm

If it is that strong, does that fact subtly change steering at all? I checked out the steering flow at various levels and it looks like there is some slight variance (in what way, hard for me to tell)
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#973 Postby ThetaE » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:19 pm

From the mesoscale satellite loop: only a few frames with this so far, but starting to look like some deeper convection with > -80 C cloudtops may be trying to establish... would explain why the eye has clouded up a little bit too (for now). Not good.

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#974 Postby Kazmit » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:20 pm

aspen wrote:If Eta has kept up its 4.25 mb/hr deepening rate, it is likely around 945-950 mbar right now. Recon could find a sub-940 mbar storm when it arrives in a few hours.

*If it arrives :roll:
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#975 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:23 pm

Kazmit wrote:
aspen wrote:If Eta has kept up its 4.25 mb/hr deepening rate, it is likely around 945-950 mbar right now. Recon could find a sub-940 mbar storm when it arrives in a few hours.

*If it arrives :roll:

What’s the status on the other plane? The one that was supposed to head out at 17z?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#976 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:25 pm

aspen wrote:
Kazmit wrote:
aspen wrote:If Eta has kept up its 4.25 mb/hr deepening rate, it is likely around 945-950 mbar right now. Recon could find a sub-940 mbar storm when it arrives in a few hours.

*If it arrives :roll:

What’s the status on the other plane? The one that was supposed to head out at 17z?


Grounded with a maintenance issue. Hopefully taking off soon.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#977 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:25 pm

I tried to extrapolate the NHC cone as of 10AM EST with a physical map of the terrain level of CA and if it manages to be just slightly north of the mountain ranges, it will most likely survive.

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#978 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:26 pm

HurricaneEnzo wrote:
aspen wrote:
Kazmit wrote:*If it arrives :roll:

What’s the status on the other plane? The one that was supposed to head out at 17z?


Grounded with a maintenance issue. Hopefully taking off soon.

I thought that was the 15z/10am flight.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#979 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:28 pm

It still feels like October, even though it's November! Eta is a CAT 4 by now.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#980 Postby Ubuntwo » Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:28 pm

Iceresistance wrote:NHC still saying 110 mph. . . :roll:

They haven't put out their 1PM yet.
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