it seems the top 2 arrows in the graphic would be potentially weak systems right? The gulf conditions are / will be pretty hostile outside extreme south/southeast side, no?chris_fit wrote:Majority of 12Z GFS Ens members shoot this into the W FL Coast, pretty much entire coast has impact according to these solutions.
The Deterministic GFS run is a W outlier
https://i.imgur.com/XColqYH.png
ATL: ETA - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1921
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
0 likes
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:I stated previously on another topic here on S2K that, IN MY OPINION to get a significant storm to hit CONUS in November, you would need it to be at a certain sweet spot in the NW Caribbean. That sweet spot would be anywhere from Cancun/Cozumel to the Isle of Pines in Cuba, with the Yucatan Channel being the optimal place to hang out and wait for a trough to send something for a CONUS strike. Eventual impact area would depend on the orientation of the trough. Bottom line, when and IF Eta emerges, where it decides to spend its time in the Caribbean and redevelop will be key to any CONUS impacts. If it sets up east of the Isle of Pines, my gut tells me it would get taken out to sea. Right now, the models appear to be setting it up in the NW Caribbean, possibly in that "Sweet spot". A storm impact further north on CONUS would weaken on approach due to shear and dry air. South Florida would be at most risk to experience a higher end storm.
Wilma was in that certain “sweet spot” too. Though Irene 1999 was always a possible analog track in my opinion, but Eta will be too far west for a repeat of that.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
Landfall position is pretty far south on 12z euro, which means more time over water for strengthening in the short term
0 likes
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
otowntiger wrote:it seems the top 2 arrows in the graphic would be potentially weak systems right? The gulf conditions are / will be pretty hostile outside extreme south/southeast side, no?chris_fit wrote:Majority of 12Z GFS Ens members shoot this into the W FL Coast, pretty much entire coast has impact according to these solutions.
The Deterministic GFS run is a W outlier
https://i.imgur.com/XColqYH.png
12z GFS has Eta interacting with a PV Streamer once it emerges in the NW Caribbean hence the weaker broader solution.
0 likes
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
So according to these models, this system could be around for 2 to 3 weeks???
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4236
- Age: 50
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
I hate to say it but the 12z Euro looks like it is going for a possible repeat of 00z.
0 likes
Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
Blinhart wrote:So according to these models, this system could be around for 2 to 3 weeks???
Second long-tracker of the season!?

0 likes
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4236
- Age: 50
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
supercane4867 wrote:12z euro from 120hr to 168hr heading ESE...
It had that motion on the 00z as well. It should turn back to the WNW or NW and strengthen if it is follows last nights 00z trend.
0 likes
Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4030
- Age: 29
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
Euro 10-fold stronger than 0z.
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
- chris_fit
- Category 5
- Posts: 3222
- Age: 42
- Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
- Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:Euro 10-fold stronger than 0z.
Um No?
977mb @ 192 hours on the 12Z
949mb same time frame on the 00Z
0 likes
- Hypercane_Kyle
- Category 5
- Posts: 3352
- Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
- Location: Cape Canaveral, FL
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
I wouldn't at all be surprised if this system we're tracking ends up being Theta, not Eta. I have difficulty imagining Eta is going to survive its trek across central America with its MLC intact.
0 likes
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:I stated previously on another topic here on S2K that, IN MY OPINION to get a significant storm to hit CONUS in November, you would need it to be at a certain sweet spot in the NW Caribbean. That sweet spot would be anywhere from Cancun/Cozumel to the Isle of Pines in Cuba, with the Yucatan Channel being the optimal place to hang out and wait for a trough to send something for a CONUS strike. Eventual impact area would depend on the orientation of the trough. Bottom line, when and IF Eta emerges, where it decides to spend its time in the Caribbean and redevelop will be key to any CONUS impacts. If it sets up east of the Isle of Pines, my gut tells me it would get taken out to sea. Right now, the models appear to be setting it up in the NW Caribbean, possibly in that "Sweet spot". A storm impact further north on CONUS would weaken on approach due to shear and dry air. South Florida would be at most risk to experience a higher end storm.
Its just way too early to figure out where it will set up though. So much depends on things like how strong it is now, how much time is spends over land, minor interactions with smaller features once it does reemerge, etc.
0 likes
- chris_fit
- Category 5
- Posts: 3222
- Age: 42
- Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
- Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
Where are you guys seeing the 12Z is stronger?
Here's the 00Z

Here's he 12Z

Here's the 00Z

Here's he 12Z

0 likes
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10163
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
chris_fit wrote:Where are you guys seeing the 12Z is stronger?
Here's the 00Z
https://i.imgur.com/mcW34Wu.jpg
Here's he 12Z
https://i.imgur.com/RhsAsEi.jpg
It’s a major hurricane heading north regardless.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4030
- Age: 29
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: ETA - Models
chris_fit wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:Euro 10-fold stronger than 0z.
Um No?
977mb @ 192 hours on the 12Z
949mb same time frame on the 00Z
Umm, yes?
EDIT: Okay, I noticed this is 12z from yesterday. Whoops.


0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests