ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Cunxi Huang]

Both TAFB and SAB at 18Z analyzed to T6.0.

AL, 29, 202011021730, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1480N, 8190W, , 1, 115, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, ML, VIM, 1, 6060 /////, , , GOES16, LLCC, T, DT=6.5 BO EYE MET=4.5 PT=5.0 FTBO RI
AL, 29, 202011021745, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1470N, 8190W, , 1, 115, 2, 948, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, MMT, VI, 1, 6060 /////, , , GOES16, CSC, T, Using eye pattern I got 6.0 breaking the rule.

[Jr0d]

115 kt/948 mbar Cat 4 in the 18z best track!

130 mph when 115 knots is converted. I'd say 135 mph & 945 MB

I would bet pressure is sub-930 when recon gets there. This is a beast of a storm.

[HurricaneEnzo]

I'd go with AMSU on current intensity. 135kt seems about right.

Is there any potential that AMSU is underestimating due to the size of the eye? Given -80C cloud tops, and a tendency for satellite intensity to lag recon in these cases (I.e. Delta), my personal inclination would be to tack on another 10kt. Doesn’t really matter at this point though. Recon will tell the tale

I'm with you I think 135kt may even be a slight underestimation at this point. I truly believe we are looking at a Cat 5 right now. Of course that is just my personal opinion.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

CDO temps cooling again.

[Iceresistance]

Latest frames having Eta turning SW

[aspen]

It’s been six and a half hours since the last recon pass. If the 4.25 mb/hr deepening rate has continued, Eta should be around 940 mbar right now, and around 930-935 mbar in 2 more hours when recon should hopefully be arriving.

[Iceresistance]

Eta could break Matthew's record for the southernmost CAT 5, it's below 15 N

[Cunxi Huang]

Knaff-Zuhr Wind-Pressure Relationship suggests 130 kt, using the 930 mb mslp estimation from AMSU.

[supercane4867]

Not much I can say at this point other than waiting for the next recon...

[Iceresistance]

Several Water-Vapor frames showing Eta moving south, trying to avoid landfall over Central America possibly?

[aspen]

I’m surprised that the pinhole hasn’t fully cleared out yet, despite the dual outflow channels. Maybe Eta is waiting for recon as well?

[Iceresistance]

I’m surprised that the pinhole hasn’t fully cleared out yet, despite the dual outflow channels. Maybe Eta is waiting for recon as well?

Maybe

[Kazmit]

I’m surprised that the pinhole hasn’t fully cleared out yet, despite the dual outflow channels. Maybe Eta is waiting for recon as well?

That's the reason I don't think this is a cat 5 yet.

[Iceresistance]

I think that Eta is at 140-155 mph right now. But no recon to prove it :/

[HurricaneEnzo]

CDO still getting colder a whole lotta pink now. This is pure obsurdity.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[aspen]

I think that Eta is at 140-155 mph right now. But no recon to prove it :/

It won’t be long now. The AF plane should leave within the next half an hour, and then it’s 1.5-2 hrs until arrival at Eta. By then, Eta could be nearly a Cat 5.

[supercane4867]

[HurricaneEnzo]

I think that Eta is at 140-155 mph right now. But no recon to prove it :/

It won’t be long now. The AF plane should leave within the next half an hour, and then it’s 1.5-2 hrs until arrival at Eta. By then, Eta could be nearly a Cat 5.

Just needs to hold on 2.5-3.5 more hours. Then once they get the data it can implode before landfall lol. Sadly doesn't look like that will happen but one can hope.

[ElectricStorm]

https://i.imgur.com/8HrVfHA.gif

Just about a full pink ring now

[chris_fit]

Anyone chasing this one? Any webcams to keep eyes on?