ATL: ETA - Models

[jconsor]

Some important context for recent ECMWF runs:

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1323344132891398145

[chris_fit]

12Z EPS

[ThetaE]

The 12z ECMWF asked: "what path could I take this storm on in order to maximize its time over high OHC? Maybe if I zig-zag it?"

[gatorcane]

18Z. There is a distinct possibility ETA never makes it out of the Caribbean and if it does, would be a shell of its former self. Even a chance it doesn’t make it back into the Caribbean as the UKMET shows, though less of a chance.

[Loveweather12]

18Z. There is a distinct possibility ETA never makes it out of the Caribbean and if it does, would be a shell of its former self.

https://i.postimg.cc/1XVszy6B/29-L-tracks-18z.png

Their is a possibility it does as their are plenty of models showing that. It will be a tricky forecast but I know I’m not discounting solutions or ruling anything out

[Spacecoast]

12Z EPS

https://i.imgur.com/gHWmRNr.gif

Where are the red circles?
All members 990+?

[SFLcane]

[DESTRUCTION5]

https://i.imgur.com/Sir5kiO.png

No ensembles east of Fl that represent a hurricane.

[TheStormExpert]

That’s a shift west from 00z EPS.

[SFLcane]

:uarrow: That’s a shift west from 00z EPS.

Most head back east towards Florida.

[ronjon]

:uarrow: That’s a shift west from 00z EPS.

Most head back east towards Florida.

Looks like the operational Euro slower than most of the ensembles - something to ponder sitting here on the west coast of Florida.

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: That’s a shift west from 00z EPS.

They also looks considerably weaker than the operational which is clearly an outlier at 933mb.

[AutoPenalti]

:uarrow: That’s a shift west from 00z EPS.

They also looks considerably weaker than the operational which is clearly an outlier at 933mb.

I personally would rely on the HWRF for intensity once this is comes back over water.

[LarryWx]

:uarrow: That’s a shift west from 00z EPS.

Most head back east towards Florida.

It would be hard to miss FL with that setup. Basically there is at 216 hours on the 12Z EPS a 500 mile wide target for landfall to its NE stretching from Pensacola to the S tip/Keys for many EPS members IF that were to be the actual setup then, which we know is merely intense speculation. And then there'd still be a wide range of potential well inland effects afterward that could affect especially the SE portions of AL, GA, SC, NC, and VA if it landfalls Big Bend or Panhandle vs mid to lower Peninsula. It really is amazing that the Panhandle might be so much in play in November. Kate of 1985 is the only other one like it this late. That kind of track is usually restricted to no later than mid October!!

[toad strangler]

:uarrow: That’s a shift west from 00z EPS.

They also looks considerably weaker than the operational which is clearly an outlier at 933mb.

Models don't forecast intensity well at all in the short range. This far out it's basically useless to look at intensity. CLIMO would agree with the weaker solutions though.

[Spacecoast]

18z latest tracks...(white is consensus)

[SFLcane]

[Spacecoast]

About 50% of the ECMF / GEFS Ensemble members never make it back out into Gulf of Honduras / Carribean.
I broke apart those that make it vs. those that don't (either dissipate, or into EPAC):

GEFS 15 members out of 32


GEFS 17 members out of 32


ECMF ~25 members out of 52


ECMF ~27 members out of 52


EDIT: I could not figure out why such a high % of ensemble members were showing this, and after some investigation, it appears that all these late cycle ensembles (both ECMF, & GEFS) were intialized prior to RI (980's). I don't know if the higher intensity will change this %, but the next ensemble run may change drastically.

[gatorcane]

East shift by the GFS with a sloppy broad low as well. Looks more reasonable than the CAT 5 Euro storm which I think is not realistic:

[Blown Away]

East shift by the GFS with a sloppy broad low as well. Looks more reasonable than the CAT 5 Euro storm which I think is not realistic:

https://i.postimg.cc/prT0KBBX/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh0-168.gif

The models are starting to push Eta farther E after emerging off Honduras to @75W and then turn around back WNW or NW. Very unusual track.