ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

Either it has completed a quick ERC or just trying to completely clear out the eye(which maybe larger than we thought)

[Owasso]

[aspen]

The eye has significantly cooled...because the CDO has cooled to a pure <-80C pink ring. The eye should warm up again over the next few hours.

[Aric Dunn]

likely a cat 5 with the last hour of trends

[aspen]

Either it has completed a quick ERC or just trying to completely clear out the eye(which maybe larger than we thought)

https://i.imgur.com/f3RLQC9.gif

The HWRF did predict a quick EWRC around midday from a tiny pinhole to a slightly larger eye. Perhaps it was right.

[Kingarabian]

Cloud tops getting colder with a full CDG ring

Need the eye temp to be positive as it's the only thing holding MW intensity estimates back.

[cycloneye]

This may be the most important mission of the 2020 season.

[ClarCari]

Okay note to self stay off twitter guys!

There’s alot of “self-proclaimed” people on there claiming that “OMG they eye is shrinking so that means there’s slight shear and a ERC is happenningggggg.”

It’s called pinhole eye and increasing convection. And a storm this dense is practically invincible to 15kt shear or less.
That’s why I love you guys here <3

[Owasso]

Don't think it's a ERC, I think it's just clearing out the eye. MW shows that the inner eyewall is robust and that an EWRC is still far out.

[supercane4867]

Depending on what recon finds, Eta's true intensity could range from 120kt to 160kt+

In other words, nobody have a clue right now

[underthwx]

likely a cat 5 with the last hour of trends

Aric, what length of time over land is ETA forecast to spend?....I wonder how weak the storm will be, given the intensity it is now...

[HurricaneEnzo]

Yeah doesn't look like an ERC. Just dealing with the explosion of the -80*C CDO. Has time to clear out eye and warm up before recon arrives. This could be mind-blowing stuff we are about to see.

[TallyTracker]

Actually I wonder if the deepening eyewall convection resulted in some high-level clouding of the eye hence the cooling eye temps.

[Blown Away]

Not as impressive looking on the IR as earlier...

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/hZKJHXY.gif
Not as impressive looking on the IR as earlier...

Please tell me you're joking.

[Kingarabian]

Actually I wonder if the deepening eyewall convection resulted in some high-level clouding of the eye hence the cooling eye temps.

We've certainly seen cloud filled eye in very strong systems such 2015 Joaquin and 2016 Mathhew.

[aspen]

Eye is looking slightly larger and better on visible imagery.

[shiny-pebble]

Not as impressive looking on the IR as earlier...

What?? It looks even better. The eye just got clouded over because of how intense the convection is.

[aspen]

Crazy said that recon should arrive in about 3 hours. That’ll be 10.5 hours after the last center fix, so if Eta has continued its 4.2 mb/hr deepening, it could be in the 920s by the time the plane arrives.

[NotoSans]

The eye has cooled to B range but overall the warm spot has become slightly larger. Looks like a quick ERC to me. Expect eye to clear out again soon.