ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

https://i.imgur.com/hZKJHXY.gif
Not as impressive looking on the IR as earlier...

Huh? It looks way better...

[supercane4867]

Really looks like ERC to me...

[Kingarabian]

Crazy said that recon should arrive in about 3 hours. That’ll be 10.5 hours after the last center fix, so if Eta has continued its 4.2 mb/hr deepening, it could be in the 920s by the time the plane arrives.

It's good they're arriving in that 3 hour mark. Will give Eta time to clear out its eye and winds to mix down to the surface while the plane samples the system. Don't want recon to be in it now and then leave while it's deepening.

[ElectricStorm]

Really looks like ERC to me...

https://i.imgur.com/1kPWr3Q.gif

If it is indeed an ERC... It looks like it's gonna be a flawless one

[Iceresistance]

Recon now at the Mississippi River Delta.

[aspen]

Really looks like ERC to me...

https://i.imgur.com/1kPWr3Q.gif

If it is indeed an ERC... It looks like it's gonna be a flawless one

Just like Goni: a quick EWRC from a pinhole to a slightly larger eye with enough time to continue going nuclear.

[GCANE]

Weak PVS to the south.
May account for the deterioration of the eye as seen on IR.
Could also account for the curve of the track to the south.

[ElectricStorm]

Weak PVS to the south.
May account for the deterioration of the eye as seen on IR.
Could also account for the curve of the track to the south.

https://i.imgur.com/j4Jox91.png

Is that PVS supposed to leave?

[supercane4867]

If this is an ERC, it really came at the worst time possible with plenty of room for further intensification. CAT5 landfall very likely unless it stalls just off shore

[GCANE]

Weak PVS to the south.
May account for the deterioration of the eye as seen on IR.
Could also account for the curve of the track to the south.

https://i.imgur.com/j4Jox91.png

Is that PVS supposed to leave?

I haven't seen anything about in the models

[BYG Jacob]

No ERC guys

[Meteophile]

Really looks like ERC to me...

https://i.imgur.com/1kPWr3Q.gif

Yep, the contracting CDo suggests a contracting outer eyewall.


Edit:, looking at the microwave, maybe not, or the outer eyewall was so close to the inner one it couldn't have been well captured by the mw.

[p1nheadlarry]

Weak PVS to the south.
May account for the deterioration of the eye as seen on IR.
Could also account for the curve of the track to the south.

https://i.imgur.com/j4Jox91.png

What pressure level is that? Could be due to downslope/shear PV generation; there's a gap wind in that location

[LarryWx]

What makes an already ominous setup even more ominous for much of Central America are the already very wet soils from earlier tropical, monsoonal, and other activity the last few months in the same area:

These are from 7 PM last night, which means before the effects of Eta...look at all of that dark green:

[supercane4867]

Eye is trying to pop up again

[Kingarabian]

[url]https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/616085028258054173/772878990586150922/El1gpm3WMAER27S.png?width=677%26height=677&key=3ce5e4b4c29377acba3ea47b41db34d083958b23a73d7517c96ccf1392ac0502[url]

No ERC guys

That's a nearly 4 hour old pass

[shiny-pebble]

Eye is warming back up. I think it was just clouded over from intense convection.

Edit: And hot towers are firing on the southern eyewall. It isn't weakening for sure.

[MississippiWx]

I think the eye is just so small that small fluctuations in shape make it appear cloud covered. It is TINY.

[cheezyWXguy]

It is not uncommon for the eye to become intermittently cloud filled while the storm strengthens. I distinctly remember these same sentiments when Felix 07 was strengthening to its first peak

[Cunxi Huang]

Looks like the eye is clearing up gradually.