wx98 wrote:Without recon the chances of an operational Cat 5 go way down. Satellite needs to improve dramatically to be a clear case for an upgrade.
If the eye clears out it's an easy cat 5.
ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
If the eye clears out it's an easy cat 5.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Eta expected to reach 150 mph at landfall
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
My best estimate right now is 125 to 130kt. Looks like consistent T6.5 on EIR.
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zal0phus
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
There is no way this is 130 mph. Probably at least 150 mph as we speak.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
I really hope they don't wait to send another plane out until the scheduled evening mission. There's a Cat 4+ hurricane that is RIing with literally zero recon in it... Unfortunate
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
AF307 was likely called off because of problems. 
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Oh for Pete’s sake, the recon plane is heading back. What is it with recon today?
Last edited by aspen on Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
And just like that the pink ring is back
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
aspen wrote:Oh for Pete’s sake, the recon plane is heading back. What is it with recon today?
What is it with recon this season? Yes I know there is a insane amount of storms, but this season has been the worst since I've started tracking storms when it comes to recon issues. It's like almost every storm has had at least one
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
aspen wrote:Oh for Pete’s sake, the recon plane is heading back. What is it with recon today?
Several Missions into Zeta were called off for some reason.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
The NHC needs to send out another recon plane ASAP. It’s been hours since we’ve had direct data, and they need to know its exact intensity for warnings.
Why is that that, with this storm specifically, every plane has been having problems? If this keeps up there won’t be any plane left.
Why is that that, with this storm specifically, every plane has been having problems? If this keeps up there won’t be any plane left.
Last edited by aspen on Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Cunxi Huang
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Well, possible another malfunction.
Last edited by Cunxi Huang on Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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JamesRainier
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Owasso wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/tJL7xLw9/205343-5day-cone-with-line-and-wind.png
Coming back offshore as a TD?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
NHC calls for Eta to degenerate into a remnant low and then regenerate into a tropical depression
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
aspen wrote:The NHC needs to send out another recon plane ASAP. It’s been hours since we’ve had direct data, and they need to know its exact intensity for warnings.
I'm really starting to think that 2020 is cursed with recon.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
aspen wrote:The NHC needs to send out another recon plane ASAP. It’s been hours since we’ve had direct data, and they need to know its exact intensity for warnings.
Where are the NOAA planes? This whole recon schedule for this storm has seemed odd. On top of all the issues with the planes
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
p1nheadlarry wrote:GCANE wrote:Weak PVS to the south.
May account for the deterioration of the eye as seen on IR.
Could also account for the curve of the track to the south.
https://i.imgur.com/j4Jox91.png
What pressure level is that? Could be due to downslope/shear PV generation; there's a gap wind in that location
200mb
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
I'm sure the NHC is doing everything they can at the moment, but we need recon in there asap. Not just for us hurricane watchers, but more importantly for the area that is about to be impacted. They need to know what they're up against and I'm afraid it could be a lot worse than what the NHC can currently estimate with the data they have. Just get any good recon plane available and send it in there.
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