ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

It's looking better and better each frame. Eye becoming very round warmer. 7.5 seems very possible tonight.

I would think that's as high as it gets, it's running out of time now.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/IpFPaT6.png https://i.imgur.com/eAeCeO2.png

I hope any recon flight is able to get in there before it passes peak intensity and an EWRC takes over.

The next one leaves at 6-ish, correct?

[GeneratorPower]

Absolutely spectacular presentation and an amazing WSW movement. It’s so beautiful. Amazing.

[Blown Away]

Track shifted N over Bilwi, Wikipedia says population of 50,000. The areas N and S are sparsely populated, unfortunately Eta has bullseye on this area. A 25 mile shift N would make a huge difference.

[Owasso]

[wxman57]

NHC's 115kt estimate looks reasonable. Low-end Cat 4.

[Chemmers]

Perfect pink ring around it now, history in the make maybe

[Iceresistance]

Only need the eye to warm and we're at 7.0

likely to small to fully clear for satellite estimates.

Have to disagree with this. GOES-16’s IR band resolution is at 2km, on par with Himawari-8. Goni a few days ago only have a 4nm eye and satellite is still able to depict a fully cleared-out WMG eye.

It may be the case before that satellite is unable to fully resolve a pinhole eye, but satellite resolution has improved so much that this difference is getting less and less significant.

I wonder when we may get our newest GOES satellite.

[SteveM]

It's looking better and better each frame. Eye becoming very round warmer. 7.5 seems very possible tonight.

What does 7.5 mean, please?

[Aric Dunn]

Perfect pink ring around it now, history in the make maybe

but we will never know... lol

[CrazyC83]

How strong is Eta now? If I were to make an estimate, I would go with 130 kt. Solid T6.5 when accounting for the fact that Dvorak does pinholes poorly.

[ElectricStorm]

It's looking better and better each frame. Eye becoming very round warmer. 7.5 seems very possible tonight.

What does 7.5 mean, please?

It's the Dvorak T number estimate. T7.5 is a very powerful Cat 5

[Sanibel]

They should schedule an Air Force Hunter so at least one of them makes it...

[Hammy]

Are we seriously not getting a pre-landfall pass? Looks like the plane turned around halfway there.

[Iceresistance]

There is a solid pink ring on Eta.

[Blown Away]

How strong is Eta now? If I were to make an estimate, I would go with 130 kt. Solid T6.5 when accounting for the fact that Dvorak does pinholes poorly.

I bet your right, Eta is amazing, but not perfect based on satellite only to justify above that. My amateur opinion only.

[Iceresistance]

It's looking better and better each frame. Eye becoming very round warmer. 7.5 seems very possible tonight.

What does 7.5 mean, please?

It's the Dvorak T number estimate. T7.5 is a very powerful Cat 5

This might reach 7.7, there is a very solid pink ring on Eta.

EDIT: Well, I can't get the GIF on the pink ring of Eta to work.

[SteveM]

It's looking better and better each frame. Eye becoming very round warmer. 7.5 seems very possible tonight.

What does 7.5 mean, please?

It's the Dvorak T number estimate. T7.5 is a very powerful Cat 5

Thanks

[aspen]

Are we seriously not getting a pre-landfall pass? Looks like the plane turned around halfway there.

I think there’s supposed to be another flight heading out in an hour or so. Hopefully they’re in the process of triple-checking that everything works.

[Chemmers]

Could it get to 8 maybe?