ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1341 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:21 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2020 Time : 215017 UTC
Lat : 14:26:58 N Lon : 82:23:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 954.8mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 6.0 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -43.2C Cloud Region Temp : -73.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1342 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:23 pm

Next recon SHOULD capture the peak intensity of Eta IF it's going to make it there.

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1343 Postby LarryWx » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:23 pm

I know it is still very early but does anyone know where to get reliable reports from Nicaragua and Honduras to see what the conditions are and how the folks are doing? I don't just mean the coast as I'm actually more concerned about inland flooding and mudslides.
Last edited by LarryWx on Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1344 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:24 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2020 Time : 215017 UTC
Lat : 14:26:58 N Lon : 82:23:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 954.8mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 6.0 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -43.2C Cloud Region Temp : -73.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Does that mean the Dvorak measurement is a T6?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1345 Postby Cunxi Huang » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:24 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Cunxi Huang wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:This might reach 7.7, there is a very solid pink ring on Eta.

EDIT: Well, I can't get the GIF on the pink ring of Eta to work. :roll:

Well you can't get 7.7 if the eye can't clear up to WMG at least.

What is WMG? And I do think the max Dvorak T number is up to a 7.2.

WMG eye (≥ 9 degC on EIR), the mandatory to get a max T7.5 subjective Dvorak estimation assume no banding feature, in general.
Last edited by Cunxi Huang on Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1346 Postby Cunxi Huang » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:25 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2020 Time : 215017 UTC
Lat : 14:26:58 N Lon : 82:23:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 954.8mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 6.0 6.4

...

Does that mean the Dvorak measurement is a T6?

You should look at Final T#.
Last edited by Cunxi Huang on Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1347 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:26 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2020 Time : 215017 UTC
Lat : 14:26:58 N Lon : 82:23:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 954.8mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 6.0 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -43.2C Cloud Region Temp : -73.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Does that mean the Dvorak measurement is a T6?

This estimate is automated and the current intensity (CI) is 5.6 due to Dvorak constraints. However the Raw estimate (present and based on the current satellite presentation) is up to 6.5. So when the constraints are lifted, the CI will jump to 6.5 if not higher.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1348 Postby TorSkk » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:27 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Eye IMO is borderline positive. I think another Dvorak limiting factor other than the slightly negative eye is the CDO thickness criteria.

That's what I'm wondering as well, there is A CDG ring with a MG eye but the narrowest width has to be at least half a degree for CMG and W. We'll see what SAB does for their 23:30Z fix

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1349 Postby Blown Away » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:27 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1350 Postby GCANE » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:27 pm

Looks south of forecast track

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1351 Postby RL3AO » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:28 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2020 Time : 215017 UTC
Lat : 14:26:58 N Lon : 82:23:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 954.8mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 6.0 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -43.2C Cloud Region Temp : -73.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Does that mean the Dvorak measurement is a T6?


The averaged data supports a 6.0, but intensifation limits are keeping the final number down. However, in this case we can throw the constraints out since it's gone from a ts to a cat 4 faster than any storm on record in the Atlantic (it tied Wilma at 18 hours)
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1352 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:29 pm

Cunxi Huang wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2020 Time : 215017 UTC
Lat : 14:26:58 N Lon : 82:23:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 954.8mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 6.0 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -43.2C Cloud Region Temp : -73.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Does that mean the Dvorak measurement is a T6?

You should look at Final T#.

ADT struggles with small eyes so the final T number is likely too low
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1353 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:30 pm

Eye is warming again, and cdo tops are as cold as ever
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1354 Postby RL3AO » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:31 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
Cunxi Huang wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Does that mean the Dvorak measurement is a T6?

You should look at Final T#.

ADT struggles with small eyes so the final T number is likely too low


It would be a 6.0 if not for this

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1355 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:31 pm

GCANE wrote:Looks south of forecast track

https://i.imgur.com/hnLf79E.png

https://i.imgur.com/OKeq97I.png



that it is and its heading south of all models and eps .. appears to be doing a loop/stall from some of the previous model runs.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1356 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:31 pm

3 hours until next recon. Planned to take off at 7:30PM central time.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1357 Postby Ryxn » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:32 pm

supercane4867 wrote:3 hours until next recon. Planned to take off at 7:30PM central time.


How long would it take to reach the center of the storm from the base?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1358 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:33 pm

Ryxn wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:3 hours until next recon. Planned to take off at 7:30PM central time.


How long would it take to reach the center of the storm from the base?

Should be there around midnight
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1359 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:33 pm

supercane4867 wrote:3 hours until next recon. Planned to take off at 7:30PM central time.

Yeah should catch it at its peak. Can't wait.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1360 Postby Owasso » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:34 pm

Image
Partial pass.
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