ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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TorSkk
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1401 Postby TorSkk » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:57 pm

RL3AO wrote:https://i.imgur.com/WwwADPp.jpg

First T7. 0 frame with the appearance of a dg eye.


Incredible convection for the basin
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1402 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:58 pm

Center wobbling as the eye clearing out.

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1403 Postby NevadaFan18 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:58 pm

New Levi Cowan video

https://youtu.be/I_p6DAOhWS8
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1404 Postby RL3AO » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:00 pm

This is some extreme wobble watching. I swear that last frame moved it to the east of South.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1405 Postby Ryxn » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:00 pm

140 MPH for 1900 EST? Or will it will be higher? I'm guessing maybe 145 mph for 1900 and 160 mph for 2200 with recon data. Would make it the record fastest intensification from TS to CAT 5 hurricane surpassing Wilma's 24 hours.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1406 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:01 pm

AF304 Mission #4 into ETA
Type: Unknown | Status: In Progress
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion- AF plane flying

#1407 Postby Owasso » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:01 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1408 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:01 pm

RL3AO wrote:This is some extreme wobble watching. I swear that last frame moved it to the east of South.


Does appear to have stalled per earlier HWRF runs from yesterday and the day before.. also could be a sign of and ERC

this would evenly shift the wind field when recon arrives. not much of a right front quad to go in.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion- AF plane flying

#1409 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:02 pm

Outflow is nuts

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1410 Postby Ian2401 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:02 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Looks like it stalled? Seems to be wobbling now.

probably trochoidal wobble giving the illusion of a stall
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion- AF plane flying - Approaches ETA around 9:30 PM EST

#1411 Postby Cunxi Huang » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:04 pm

Clear-cut DT7.0.

Image
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1412 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:05 pm

Ian2401 wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Looks like it stalled? Seems to be wobbling now.

probably trochoidal wobble giving the illusion of a stall

Long term motion is still SW. Obvious trochoidal wobble IMO

Last edited by supercane4867 on Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion- AF plane flying - Approaches ETA around 10 PM EST

#1413 Postby ClarCari » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:05 pm

How will we know the SFMR is working? Maybe it’s paranoia and ignorance but the readings still look flatlined.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion- AF plane flying - Approaches ETA around 10 PM EST

#1414 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:05 pm

Assuming it does not maintian long enough for recon.. at least we should get a decent idea of what it was right now. lol
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion- AF plane flying - Approaches ETA around 9:30 PM EST

#1415 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:06 pm

Did someone make a oops on the discussion?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion- AF plane flying - Approaches ETA around 10 PM EST

#1416 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:07 pm

ClarCari wrote:How will we know the SFMR is working? Maybe it’s paranoia and ignorance but the readings still look flatlined.


we dont.. there are a bunch of islands and shoals/sandbars where where it is.. so SFMR will be less useful.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion- AF plane flying - Approaches ETA around 10 PM EST

#1417 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:09 pm

We have recon active right now!
AF304
Image
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion- AF plane flying - Approaches ETA around 10 PM EST

#1418 Postby ClarCari » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:09 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
ClarCari wrote:How will we know the SFMR is working? Maybe it’s paranoia and ignorance but the readings still look flatlined.


we dont.. there are a bunch of islands and shoals/sandbars where where it is.. so SFMR will be less useful.

Is it something they keep turned off until they get close to the storm?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion- AF plane flying - Approaches ETA around 10 PM EST

#1419 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:10 pm

IR presentation just keeps getting better...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion- AF plane flying - Approaches ETA around 10 PM EST

#1420 Postby Owasso » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:10 pm

Image
Now that's some lightning.
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