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TheStormExpert

Re: Florida Weather

#16381 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:19 pm

gatorcane wrote:Some nice fall weather on the way for Florida even South Florida. Latest disco from NWS Miami:

Long Term...
Friday night through Wednesday night...

Behind a cold front that should be through the area by Friday
night, a 500mb ridge builds over the Gulf of Mexico. however, the
ridge is flat, with nearly zonal flow just to the north of the
high. The surface front should stall over the Keys, according to
both the GFS and the ECMWF. With the main surface high well to the
north, this should allow for some of the moisture to creep back
into the southern portion of the area for Saturday, bringing a
chance of showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms to the
area.

By Sunday, a strong 500mb trough digs over the eastern United
States and the high that was to the north, is pushed off to the
east. This will allow for the stalled front to drift back to the
north, bringing some additional instability and moisture to South
Florida for Sunday, especially for the Atlantic waters and the
adjacent coast.

There is a strong surface low pressure system to the north, which
has its own cold front to push into the area. This front should
make its way through the area late Sunday into Monday. This second
front will advect a drier air mass into the area, with dew points
on Monday in the mid to upper 60s, and by Tuesday, from the upper
50s, west of the lake, to the mid 60s near the Atlantic coast.
This will also bring a cooler air mass into the area, with high
temperatures on tuesday only in the 70s.


This strong surface high, which is bringing the cooler and drier
weather, is forecast to remain over the area through the middle of
the week.


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

I know it’s only been since early May that we had high temperatures below 80° but at the speed this years going that feels like forever ago! :lol:
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Re: Florida Weather

#16382 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:45 am

End of rainy season and hello Fall for Florida. Going to feel nice out there 8-) :flag:

Image
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Re: Florida Weather

#16383 Postby toad strangler » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:19 am

gatorcane wrote:End of rainy season and hello Fall for Florida. Going to feel nice out there 8-) :flag:

https://i.postimg.cc/QMgBPQL0/gfs-Td2m-seus-fh0-120.gif


Camping just S of Orlando. It’s absolutely glorious out here! :sun:
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Re: Florida Weather

#16384 Postby psyclone » Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:42 pm

Awesome Autumn has been delayed but not denied. Crisp dry airmass now in place for the first time in a good 6 months
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Re: Florida Weather

#16385 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:37 pm

toad strangler wrote:
gatorcane wrote:End of rainy season and hello Fall for Florida. Going to feel nice out there 8-) :flag:

https://i.postimg.cc/QMgBPQL0/gfs-Td2m-seus-fh0-120.gif


Camping just S of Orlando. It’s absolutely glorious out here! :sun:


I can imagine how nice it must be, front is still causing lingering clouds across South Florida but the wind did shift to the north a couple of hours ago with a slight hint of cooler air.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16386 Postby HurricaneBelle » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:34 pm

psyclone wrote:Awesome Autumn has been delayed but not denied. Crisp dry airmass now in place for the first time in a good 6 months


It's easy to forget because it only lasted a day or two, but we did have a legit cold front come through here on September 30; the high that day was only 80 with DPs in the 50s.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16387 Postby gatorcane » Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:33 pm

The pressure gradient between the strong cold front and ETA looks to create 35-39mph wing gusts across coastal SE Florida starting tomorrow :eek:
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Re: Florida Weather

#16388 Postby gatorcane » Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:41 pm

As far as the rainy season goes, I think it ended for South Florida today Nov 1st. We still had showers and storms around this Saturday albeit due to a stalled front and even see some on the radar tonight out already of a front but not right along the frontal boundary. Dew points still above 70F. By the way that is quite a bit longer than the mean date of Oct 16th I believe. Anybody have any thoughts?
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Re: Florida Weather

#16389 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:31 pm

Dew point is currently 61° with mostly cloudy skies a blustery north wind. Enjoy it because come Thursday it’s back to the 70°+ dew points.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16390 Postby itglobalsecure » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:11 pm

Here in West Boca the wind started to blow this afternoon, the air became crisp, and the temperatures dropped. It's just glorious now. It's been so long since I've felt air like this
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Re: Florida Weather

#16391 Postby canes92 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:01 pm

Feels fantastic today. Would be great if it stayed this way, too bad temps will go back up.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16392 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:41 pm

As if the 20 inches of rain we've received last month wasn't enough! :eek: :eek: :eek:

Image

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
405 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2020

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...

NHC is forecasting Tropical Cyclone Eta to move across Honduras
tonight into Thursday before moving back into the Northwest Caribbean
Sea by end of this week. NHC is then forecasting the system to move
into the Florida Straits over the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico this
weekend into early next week. The long range models are also showing
the frontal Boundary over the Florida Straits to move northward
back into South Florida this weekend, as a trough of low pressure
develops over the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for deep
tropical moisture to work into South Florida from the Caribbean
Sea this weekend into early next week where the PWAT values are in
the 2.1 to 2.4 inch range. These PWAT values are at the maximum
PWAT values for this time of year. This means that showers and
thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing very
heavy rainfall this weekend into early next week.

Forecast rainfall totals from Thursday night through early next
week looks to be between 10 to 15 inches over the east coast
metro areas tapering down to 4 to 8 inches over the western areas
of South Florida. There could also be locally higher amounts with
any showers or thunderstorms that do train over the same area.
It should be stated that these amounts could easily change
with future forecast adjustments. But the key message is that a
potentially impactful flooding event is possible for the eastern
metro areas should these trends hold. A Flood Watch may be required
for some portion of our area with future forecast updates.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16393 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:23 am

We got squally weather down here in dade already. Seems like it will last a while
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Re: Florida Weather

#16394 Postby gatorcane » Thu Nov 05, 2020 10:09 am

The semi-permanent SE ridge has been the story of the season for peninsula Florida which still looks to escape this record-breaking season unscathed. :flag:
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Re: Florida Weather

#16395 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:51 pm

gatorcane wrote:The semi-permanent SE ridge has been the story of the season for peninsula Florida which still looks to escape this record-breaking season unscathed. :flag:

I also feel pretty safe looking at the latest teleconnections that there will be no significant cold fronts for the Florida Peninsula for at least the next two weeks, probably longer. Hope folks were hoping for a warm Thanksgiving down here cause that's what is more than likely going to happen.
:onfire:

Image

Image
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Re: Florida Weather

#16396 Postby gatorcane » Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:40 pm

Looking at the radar over South Florida this evening with showers moving in from the Atlantic not to mention approaching Eta, seems we have been thrust right back into the rainy season the next 5 days or so. When is all of this rain finally going to end for South Florida? The amount of rain we have seen lately is unbelievable.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16397 Postby FlaWeatherDude » Sun Nov 08, 2020 9:20 pm

Eta will not get picked up by a trough until next Sunday/Monday!
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Re: Florida Weather

#16398 Postby toad strangler » Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:41 pm

floridasun78 hasn't posted or logged in for two months and usually always on everything. Wrote in broken English but obviously a sharp dude. I hope all is well there ....
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Re: Florida Weather

#16399 Postby Patrick99 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:23 pm

I suspect that as Eta starts drifting back toward the peninsula while still drawing moisture from the Caribbean, we'll start seeing some feeder bands affecting SFL again in the next few days.
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Re: Florida Weather

#16400 Postby boca » Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:27 pm

Patrick99 wrote:I suspect that as Eta starts drifting back toward the peninsula while still drawing moisture from the Caribbean, we'll start seeing some feeder bands affecting SFL again in the next few days.


I thought Eta was heading to the big bend or panhandle of Florida because if that’s the case we will be out of Eta circulation or feeder bands
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