ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneEnzo]

So much for my call it peaked earlier this is insanity

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[cjrciadt]

https://i.postimg.cc/SsgZ7p6F/image.png

Does look like an SPAC super typhoon indeed vs an NA cane

[Cunxi Huang]

2020NOV02 225017 5.9 948.3 112.4 5.9 6.3 7.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -35.96 -77.18 EYE 6 IR 20.0 14.39 82.33 ARCHER GOES16 18.8

[cjrciadt]

It is like Eta saw the Haiyan pic, because it has become more well rounded since!

[Iceresistance]

2020NOV02 225017 5.9 948.3 112.4 5.9 6.3 7.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -35.96 -77.18 EYE 6 IR 20.0 14.39 82.33 ARCHER GOES16 18.8

CAT 5!

[somethingfunny]

Sunset loop

https://i.imgur.com/sZ84jym.gif

It's a shame we don't have weather stations on those islands

[jackdets]

2020NOV02 225017 5.9 948.3 112.4 5.9 6.3 7.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -35.96 -77.18 EYE 6 IR 20.0 14.39 82.33 ARCHER GOES16 18.8

CAT 5!

That's the RAW T, which is typically not used. Instead, usually the Adj T (6.3) or Final T (5.9) are used

[supercane4867]

https://i.postimg.cc/SsgZ7p6F/image.png

Does look like an SPAC super typhoon indeed vs an NA cane

Well Olaf would be the benchmark storm in such case. Eta needs to get her eye sort out.

[ElectricStorm]

2020NOV02 225017 5.9 948.3 112.4 5.9 6.3 7.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -35.96 -77.18 EYE 6 IR 20.0 14.39 82.33 ARCHER GOES16 18.8

Highest raw Ts yet

[CrazyC83]

I'm sure there is a lot of debate on what the NHC will go with at the intermediate.

[Aric Dunn]

CAT 5!

That's the RAW T, which is typically not used. Instead, usually the Adj T (6.3) or Final T (5.9) are used

In this case with the small eye. the RAW Tnumbers are often used.

[edu2703]

I'm sure there is a lot of debate on what the NHC will go with at the intermediate.

Probably 120-130 knots

[ozonepete]

Looks like it stalled? Seems to be wobbling now.

probably trochoidal wobble giving the illusion of a stall

Not likely since a number of models had forecast a slowing and possible stall anyway - and tight loops or stalls don't do trochoidal wobbles.

[RL3AO]

CAT 5!

That's the RAW T, which is typically not used. Instead, usually the Adj T (6.3) or Final T (5.9) are used

Yes, but this isn't a typical case. The adjusted t is limited due to the explosive intensification. The constrains have their purpose, but in this case they're likely not leading to an accurate estimate.

[TheStormExpert]

Eta is likely to rival Laura for strongest storm of the season. Hard to believe in a season like this we have not seen one single Cat.5 yet. Considering they’re were six in the last four seasons 2016-2019 alone.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wow, recon is absolutely booking... moving at 376 knots.

[Owasso]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2020 Time : 225017 UTC
Lat : 14:23:24 N Lon : 82:19:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 948.3mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.3 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 6 km

Center Temp : -36.0C Cloud Region Temp : -77.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[ncskywarn]

I'm sure there is a lot of debate on what the NHC will go with at the intermediate.

My Guess is 140 or 145 on the 7 PM intermediate update, and they will wait for recon data for the 10 PM full update.

[CrazyC83]

I'm sure there is a lot of debate on what the NHC will go with at the intermediate.

Probably 120-130 knots

I'd go with 135 kt with the latest clearing.

[zal0phus]

What a beautiful but nightmarish storm.